1. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Canadian Agriculture and Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities

2. 2 Changes and adaptation are part of business in agriculture Variations from Expected Wheat Yield, 1917 - 2000

3. 3 on the agriculture and agri-food industry, and on rural communities Climate change means new potential pressures Crops Heat, Winter damage, Weeds, Pests Crops Heat, Winter damage, Weeds, Pests Livestock Productivity, Diseases, Power Outages Livestock Productivity, Diseases, Power Outages Food processing Pathogens, Parasites, Mycotoxins, Residues Food processing Pathogens, Parasites, Mycotoxins, Residues Rural communities Lifestyle, Income Rural communities Lifestyle, Income Resources Loss of Arable Land, Stress on Water Resources Loss of Arable Land, Stress on Water Resources

4. 4 The Atlantic region is likely to benefit from a longer growing season Source: Bootsma et al. 2001 Effective Growing Degree Days

5. 5 Longer growing seasons are also predicted for the Prairies... Effective Growing Degree Days 1961-90 2040-69 Source: Harron et al. 2001

6. 6 Moisture Deficit for the Prairies (Precipitation minus Potential Evapotranspiration, mm/year) Source: Harron et al. 2001 …but with large moisture deficits 1961-90 2040-69

7. 7 Source: Harron et al. 2001 Favorable cropping conditions may shift northward…. 1961-90 2040-69 …but we may not have adequate soil conditions available

8. 8 Extreme events, particularly drought, are already a very serious concern Drought Severity Index SW Saskatchewan and SE Alberta (Sauchyn and Skinner, 2001) … and are expected to be aggravated

9. 9 Adequate water resources management... …will be key in addressing this issue Effective watershed management On-farm water management Alternate production systems Efficient irrigation practices Prevention of wetland loss

10. 10 Responses Risk management programs Irrigation efficiency Water allocations Research Improved resource management … and government needs to act Climate change means new risks to producers... Pressures Increased temperature Increased variations in climate Reduced water availability Degraded soil Different pests, pathogens and weeds behaviour

11. 11 Coping with Global Warming and Climate Variability requires … Continuing Adaptation Short-term strategies …...And long-term strategies

12. 12 International Trade & Development Food Safety and Food Quality Environment Science and Innovation Renewal Business Risk Management The APF elements: The Agriculture Policy Framework: short-term response and positioning for the long term

13. 13 How can Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada help the sector adapt to global warming and climate variability? Improved models to predict impacts on agriculture and agri-food sectors Sustainable productions systems Development of more resilient crops Improved agricultural practices New technologies for water use efficiency Science and Innovation

14. 14 Production Insurance New NISA Programs –Stabilization –Disaster –Investment Tax Deferral Designations Business Risk Management How can Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada help the sector adapt to global warming and climate variability?

15. 15 Assistance in dealing with changes Linking science with opportunities/ Technology transfer Improved decision support systems Skills and training Renewal How can Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada help the sector adapt to global warming and climate variability?

16. 16 Security of water supply National Land and Water Information Service Improved weather and climate information Best Management Practices Environmental Farm Plans Greencover Agri- Environmental Indicators Environment How can Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada help the sector adapt to global warming and climate variability?

17. 17 Long-term approach: Continue developing adaptation strategies Building scientific tools, knowledge base and capacity Develop strategies and partnerships to address emerging issues Adjust and add programs to support adaptation...and take advantage of opportunities