1. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project A collaborative project sponsored by the Climate Change Action Fund

2. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Project Aims To encourage the use of a consistent set of climate change scenarios by the VIA research community in Canada By: providing basic national climate change scenarios developing a nationally-consistent framework within which sector- and region-specific climate change scenarios can be developed developing and maintaining a capacity to support climate impacts and adaptation research and assessments http://www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios involving the university research community and scenario users in the further development of climate change scenarios

3. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Project conforms to IPCC-TGCIA recommendations: Guidelines on the Use of Scenario Data for Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment (Download from: http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk) Current focus is on climate change scenario construction using GCM output: IS92a, and now SRES emissions scenarios GCMs which have been involved in model intercomparison exercises Warm start experiments

4. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada “Users should design and apply multiple scenarios in impacts assessments, where these scenarios span a range of possible future climates, rather than designing and applying a single ‘best guess’ scenario” IPCC-TGCIA Recommendation http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk

5. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Multiple Scenarios

6. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Climate change scenarios for Canada and North America At original GCM resolution; (0.5° latitude/longitude) Mean changes wrt 1961-1990 for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s; also monthly time series, anomaly time series Monthly, seasonal and annual values Climate variables, minimum data set: mean, minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, a radiation variable, a humidity variable, wind speed Advice on scenario construction, downscaling, applications, limitations and uncertainties What’s available from CCIS... http://www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios

7. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Scenarios from... Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis ( CGCM1, CGCM2 ) Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research ( HadCM2, HadCM3 ) Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation ( CSIROMk2b ) German Climate Research Centre ( ECHAM4 ) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ( GFDL-R15, GFDL-R30 ) Japanese Centre for Climate Research Studies ( CCSR/NIES ) US National Centre for Atmospheric Research ( NCAR-PCM )

8. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Available Scenarios IS92a CGCM1, CGCM2 HadCM2, HadCM3 ECHAM4 GFDL-R15 CSIROMk2b CCSR/NIES NCAR-PCM Total 26, + 4 means SRES CGCM2 HadCM3 CSIROMk2b ECHAM4 CCSR/NIES GFDL-R30 NCAR-PCM Total 29, + 3 means

9. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada What do you get?

10. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada How do you use this information? Simplest method: apply monthly or seasonal scenario changes from appropriate grid box to observed data (either daily, monthly or seasonal).

11. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Results … A time series which has the same statistical characteristics as the observed data, but with the mean values perturbed by the scenario amount You can produce synthetic weather data using a stochastic weather generator - statistical characteristics will be similar to observed, but day-to-day values will be different

12. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Scenario Application [Supplied by Bill Taylor, Environment Canada, Pacific and Yukon Region] PRISM: 1961-90 Normals 2020s 2050s 2080s Present and Future Precipitation in British Columbia

13. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Bioclimate Profiles

14. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Scenario Tools Scatter plots to assist with scenario selection Access to downscaling tools

15. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Scatter Plots Cooler, wetter Cooler, drier Warmer, wetter Warmer, drier

16. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Downscaling Tools Access to SDSM and predictor variables for North America (soon global) LARS-WG: stochastic weather generator

17. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada What’s next for the CCIS Project?

18. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Major revisions to web site content and development of additional tools In Progress... Major updates to bioclimate profiles Predictor datasets for use with SDSM

19. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada What’s planned... Interpretation of scenarios –descriptive indices, such as degree days, a drought index … Scenarios of changes in climate variability and extremes; significance of scenario changes Further work on downscaling

20. CGCM1 GAX: Winter precipitation change (%) Scenario Significance

21. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada [Source: Nigel Arnell, in Hulme et al. (1999), Nature 397] Climate Change versus Climate Variability

22. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada [Source: Nigel Arnell, in Hulme et al. (1999), Nature 397] Significance of the Effect of Climate Change: Runoff

23. ‘Hot’ summer GCMs and Extreme Events