1. British Military Transformation and Afghanistan Professor Theo Farrell Dept of War Studies King’s College London

2. US military transformation  2001 QDR: transformation “at the heart” of a “new strategic approach”  Rooted in RMA of 1990s  Transformation = technology + new concepts and organization  Core concepts: NCW and EBO

3. Opportunity: socio-tech change

4. Imperative: strategic change

5. NCW benefits-chain Network Information Situation awareness Self-synchronization Mission effectiveness

6. Origins of EBO

8. Twenty days later…

9. Human-centric warfare

10. Advert for RMA

11. NATO survey: responses CountryNumberPercentage Germany 349 14 France 225 9 Spain 220 9 Italy 204 8 Netherlands 204 8 Denmark 187 8 Belgium 164 7 Britain 146 6 Total2464100

12. Impact of IT

13. Importance of NEC

14. Future is EBAO

15. Large formation warfare?

16. European opinion?  A new paradigm of warfare  Network enabled & effects based  Expeditionary & medium weight

17. Many transformation gaps  Britain: culture & cost constraints  France: strategic use  Germany: bureaucratic obstacles  Spain: rhetorical use  Romania: new narrative

18. British military transformation Must “move away from simplistic platform-centric planning, to a fully ‘network-enabled capability’ able to exploit effects-based planning and operations, using forces which are truly adaptable, capable of even greater precision and rapidly deployable” Defence Secretary, Geoff Hoon Defence White Paper 2003

19. Network Enabled Capability  NEC “at the heart of our transformation.”  NEC = “the coherent integration of sensors, decision-makers, weapon systems and support capabilities to achieve the desired effect” DWP 2003

20. Future Combat Systems, RIP

21. NEC evolutionary approach  Initial state (2012)  Transitional state (2017)  Mature state (2030)

22. Acquiring NEC  NEC embedded across the equip plan: in 60% of 500+ projects  Key progs: DII, BOWMAN, SKYNET 5,  Transforming battlespace and business space  DSTL study on NCW benefits-chain: human element

23. Effects based approach to operations (EBAO)

24. National Strategic Aim/ National Strategic Objectives Operational End-state Governance Security Political Process Reconstruction DC 1 Interim Governance Provided DC 2 Self- Governance Established DC 3 Secure Environment Maintained DC 4 Self-Sustaining Security Established DC 5 Electoral Process Reformed DC 6 Elected Government Empowered DC 8 Key Infrastructure Restored DC 7 Sustained Infrastructure Established (Ability to Govern) Operational Centre of Gravity Create the security conditions that enable: Lasting peace in which the threat of violence and civil war has been curtailed Country ‘X’ to generate mature political structures, supported by reliable infrastructure and governance, providing prosperity and security for all its people.

25. Transforming in contact

28. British campaign, 2006-2008  16 bde: ‘inkspot’ to platoon house  3 cdo: chasing the Taliban  12 mech: big sweeps  52 bde: ‘clear, hold, build’  16 bde: Kajaki Dam

29. Task ForceTroops in contact 16 Air Assault527 3 Commando831 12 Mechanised1,096

30. Task ForceDateSize 16 AA20063,150/ 4,500 3 Cdo2006-075,200 12 Mech20076,500 52 Inf2007-087,750 16 AA20088,530 3 Cdo2008-098,300

31. Clearing Central Helmand  3 Cdo 2008 - Op SOND CHARA  19 Bde 2009 - Op PANCHAI PALANG  11 Bde 2010 – Op MOSHTARAK

32. Op PANCHAI PALANG

33. Op MOSHTARAK

34. NEC: battefield pull

35. EBAO in Afghanistan  soft effects and influence ops  cultural understanding  messaging: “talking our way in”

36. Military success!

37. Ouch! The 2010 SDSR  CSR 2010: real cut 8% over 4 yrs  Most cuts in 2013-15  Inherited overspend £38 bn  Def expenditure as % GDP: Year% 20092.7 20142.2 2009 (Eur av)1.7

38. ServiceCuts by 2015 Army7% RAF18% RN16%

39. The shrinking force 200420102015 Fast jet sqn 16126 Frigates & destroyers 312319

40. Future of FRES?

41. Future Character of Conflict?

42. Stuck with Mastiff and Ridgeback

43. The adaptable posture  More than a buzz word?  CT, cyber, and natural disasters  Adaptable in Afghanistan: - deliver range of civil effects in non- permissive environments - secure and stabilise for civilian partners

44. The adaptable force