1. Identifying social and economic issues in the Bowen Basin John Rolfe Central Queensland University

2. The focus of this presentation  Provide an overview of the broader issues  Identify some of the key impacts of mining in the Bowen Basin  Explore how they overlap with other social and economic trends  Provide some analysis of the issues

3. The contribution of the mining industry  In 2002, ACIL Consulting reported that:  mining contributed about 10% of Qld economy, and 17% of construction  Coal mining firms directly employed approximately 16,400 people, and paid them almost $1000 million in salaries  A further 15 – 20% of jobs and salary payments paid to contractors  A further $2,200 million paid to firms that provided goods and services  Up to 60,000 full-time and part-time jobs generated by the mining industry.

4. The demographic impacts  Most rural and regional areas have lost population in the past 25 years  Western Queensland has lost approximately one-third of its population  How would the Central Highlands look if population had decreased by a third since 1980?  This is one of the only inland regions in Australia to be growing in population Because of mining

5. The rollercoaster of current expansion  Growth in almost all aspects of coal industry in past 2 years Employment Contractors Construction Output New mining operations  7% growth per annum to 2010  The industry would double production in less than 10 years

6. Qld Employment in coal industry

7. Queensland coal production levels

8. Opencut saleable production

9. Underground saleable production

10. Value of exports

11. Are we making the best of our opportunities in Central Queensland?  At current rates, the coal industry will double in size from 2000 – 2010 Population change in the Bowen Basin ? Wealth in the area ? Developing service industries for coal ? Broadening the support in training and other activities ? Creating lifestyles that make people want to stay here ?

12. Operational changes  Moves to more contract labour Greater flexibility  More efficient and profitable operations  Workforce can be downsized more easily But workforce no longer located in closest town  Spreads economic wealth more regionally  More travel, less sense of community

13. Operational changes  Changes to shiftwork patterns  Shiftwork in blocks  More drive-in/drive-out operations Miners have more options about where to live Bigger blocks of recreation time But loss of community activities  Difficult to run clubs and sporting groups  Many people go elsewhere when not on shift

14. Industry structure  Mining used to be dominated by large firms Needed scale economies to be able to build mines and associated towns  Range of new entrants Small companies, contractors Keeps more wealth locally But bigger range of contributors to social and economic impacts

15. Growing pains - 1  Dutch Disease – when a growing industry sucks labour and resources away from others  Shortages in skilled labour now widespread  Agriculture, Local Government, etc, find it difficult to retain staff  Attracting staff is difficult

16. Salary increases needed to attract staff

17. Other factors that affect labour mobility

18. Growing pains - 2  Housing prices – high rents and shortages make housing too expensive  Economic impacts – hard to develop service and other industries when it is too expensive to live in the town  Social impacts – people on lower incomes may have to shift

19. Separating impacts of mining from demographic and social changes  The urban attraction – jobs and higher incomes attract people  The regional hub – these develop because of better services Education, jobs for partners, health, entertainment  The lifestyle movers – people move to the coast

20. Social and economic impacts have changed over the past 25 years  Changes due to Changes in the way the industry works Changes in demographics and social patterns  Demographic impacts are varied Many employees come from range of locations  Economic impacts much more diffuse Many mines have impacts at regional rather than local level  Social impacts are varying across groups  Getting harder to identify who is responsible for provision of services and infrastructure

21. The new social impacts  Higher incomes make it easier to move families away from mining towns Also education and other drivers  Greater travel time  Loss of services and entertainment in smaller centres  Greater difficulty in providing services like health

22. Mobility  People are more mobile – better transport and communications  Don’t need so many service towns that we once did  Shopping and services are concentrating to regional hubs – but the population is not ??

23. The regional hub argument  Currently growth in all Bowen Basin towns  But long-term trends suggest concentration to regional hubs  But prices in Emerald and Moranbah are hindering this development  Perhaps should plan for services and growth to get these centres to a larger size in longer term  Or else we face fly-in/fly-out from coastal and urban centres

24. Flexibility  People are more flexible – change jobs and locations more readily  Starting to see specialised communities develop The workcamp model The older workforce model The young families model ?  Should communities focus on catering only to specialised groups?

25. Dealing with cyclical impacts  High prices stimulate extra production, which can help to bring prices down  Strong exports tend to push the A$ up, and reduce the net value of sales  Current predictions are that the boom may last another 2 – 5 years

26. Australian Mineral resources prices, ended March quarter 2005

27. Production per employee is dropping

28. Communities face choices  Have maximum growth, face population losses in future downturn  Have minimum growth, and ride out the downturns  Locate population in regional hubs to generate flexibility, and perhaps attract service industries  Specialise their attraction to keep core group of population

29. So what are we doing ……?  Skill shortages ?  Housing constraints ?  Providing services ?  Assessing impacts at regional rather than local levels ?  Getting the economic benefits to stay in the region ?  Attracting new people to region ?  Developing regional hubs ?  Planning for future downturns ?

30. The rollercoaster  Industry has been in major expansion phase  … and government and service sector has been scrambling to keep up  To make the best of the opportunities, we need to Identify the key impacts to address Find ways of measuring and analysing them Develop solutions that work Develop processes that allow different players to work together