1. Tyler C. Folsom, PhD, PE Project Manager, Qi2, Kent, WA Professor, University of Washington, Bothell, WA Tyler@TFolsom.com

2. Safer roads Self-driving taxis blur the distinction between public and private transportation Less need for parking

3. 1. Cars with improved Driver Assistance Systems (DAS) but still requiring a driver. 2. Cars that typically drive themselves; no license required. 3. Transit based vehicle automation. 4. People moving from fixed homes to automated Recreational Vehicles. (requires #2)

4. Be able to haul peak load and passengers Safety Comfort Status

5. Base two-person pods can connect to form larger vehicles. The vehicle can be right-sized for the task at hand. If traffic accidents are rare, a motorcycle is almost as safe as an SUV. Small vehicles need not be cramped or Spartan.

6. Self-drive can produce 100% compliance with regulations; no need for traffic police. Will driver take over if regulations are unrealistic? Cars must be choreographed for optimum traffic flow: automated Road Traffic Control Automated operation might only be permitted on approved lanes. Traffic Control could limit the distance of automated travel per day, preventing the urge to sprawl.

7.  Reduced car ownership  Motorcycles that are almost as safe as an SUV  Post-automotive cities  Energy efficiency of 1000 (one thousand) mpg equivalent [1]  Urban transportation based on renewable electricity  Increased highway capacity with no new construction [2]  Public transportation more convenient, faster, safer and cheaper than private transportation

8. LocationMi/hkm/hNotes U.S. average commute 2845Average trip length is 12 mi. [3] U.S. EPA city fuel rating 1931City driving cycle assumes 43% stopped or decelerating [4] Japan city fuel rating152452% stopped or decelerating [4] Mumbai, India5-198-30Minimum and maximum average speed [5]. Yakima, WA, USA23.938.5Average of 44 segments posted for 35 mph during PM peak. [6]

9. Typical light rail average speeds LocationMi/hkm/hNotes Tokyo, Japan1626Marunouchi line from Kasumigaseki to Ikebukuro travels 10.8 km in 25 minutes New York City, USA17.428.1Average subway scheduled speed [7] Seattle, USA2235Downtown to airport is 15.5 mi, scheduled in 38 minutes plus 5 minute average wait time [8]. Vancouver, Canada2845Does not include wait times MARTA, Atlanta, USA28.846.5Average scheduled speed [7] Washington, DC, USA29.547.6Average scheduled speed [7]

10. Power = K 1 * m * v + K 2 * v 3 Rolling + Aerodynamic m: mass; v: velocity The less-simplified version needs additional rolling power to overcome slopes or stop-and- go [9].

11. Once there is a large pool of depleted batteries, energy can be harvested any time the sun shines or the wind blows. Major reduction in fossil fuel consumption. Less air and water pollution; improved public health. Fewer green-house gasses. Oil is no longer a strategic commodity, and military spending can decrease.

12.  Less required parking. A few remote lots, rather than at each building.  Human-scaled communities?  Increased / decreased sprawl?  Parking for vehicular homeless?  Distributed solar & wind power generation?  Reduced need for heavy buses / trucks → lighter roads?

13. [1] Tyler C. Folsom, Energy and Autonomous Vehicles, IEEE Technology and Society Magazine, Summer 2012, draft on www.qi2.com/index.php/transportation [2] S. E. Shladover, “Reasons for operating AHS vehicles in platoons”, in Automated Highway Systems, P.A. Ioannou, Ed, New York, NY, Springer, 1996. [3] Federal Highway Administration (2009) Summary of Travel Trends – 2009 National Household Travel Survey. [4] S. C. Davis, S. W. Diegel and R. G. Boundy, Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 29. July 2010 table 4.32. online cta.ornl.gov/data [5] http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2012-01-18/mumbai/30638447_1_kmph- coastal-road-travel-speed [6] City of Yakima, Travel Speed Study of Urban Streets Using GPS and GIS, 2002. http://www.yakimawa.gov/services/gis/files/2012/05/reportman.pdf [7] Matt Johnson, Average scheduled speed: How does Metro compare? 2012. http://greatergreaterwashington.org/post/5183/average-schedule-speed-how-does- metro-compare/ [8] http://www.soundtransit.org/Rider-Guide/Link-light-rail [9] F.R. Whitt and D.G. Wilson, Bicycling Science, 2 nd ed, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press 1982.