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US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Randy Smith SMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH
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Total U.S. Monthly Room Supply – Actual and Seasonally Adjusted January 1989 to March 2006 CAGR – 2.07% CAGR 3.5% CAGR 0.8% 4.4 Million Rooms 3.1 Million Rooms
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Total U.S. Monthly Room Demand – Seasonally Adjusted January 1989 to March 2006 Peak CAGR – 2.7% CAGR – 2.07% 6.1%
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Total United States Room Demand Percent Change Jan 2002 – March 2006 35 Consecutive Months of Demand Growth
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Total United States Room Supply/Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to March 2006 3.3% 0.3%
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Total United States Occupancy Percent Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to March 2006 61.9 % December 1991 Sep 95 & May 96 64.9% 63.3% Feb 2001 58.5% Aug 02 & May 03 Feb 06 63.5%
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Total United States Occupancy/ADR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to March 2006 Divergence Divergence? 3.0% 5.9%
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Total United States Room Demand / ADR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to March 2006 3.3% 5.9%
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Total United States Average Daily Rate Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to March 2006 $54.94 Jan 1989 $86.33 June 2001 $92.27 Mar 06 Peak CAGR – 4.4% Long Term CAGR – 3.1%
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Total United States RevPAR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to March 2006 -2.6% Oct 91 6.5% Feb 97 6.5% Feb 01 -10.6% Jun 02 9.1%
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Total U.S. Monthly Seasonally Adjusted Room Revenues January 1989 to February 2006 Peak CAGR – 7.1% Long-Term CAGR – 5.2%
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Total United States Key Performance Indicators Percent Change Twelve Months Ending March 2006
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Total United States Key Performance Indicators Percent Change March YTD
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Chain Scales Supply/Demand Percent Change March 2006 YTD
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Chain Scales Occupancy/ADR Percent Change March 2006 YTD
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Luxury Chains Monthly Room Supply – Actual and Seasonally Adjusted January 1989 to February 2006 CAGR – 3.8 % 43,000 Rooms 74,000 Rooms
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Luxury Chains Monthly Room Demand – Seasonally Adjusted January 1989 to February 2006 CAGR – 4.1%
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Luxury Chains Occupancy/ADR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to February 2006 3.7% 7.2%
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Midscale With F&B Chains Room Supply – Actual and Seasonally Adjusted January 1989 to February 2006 CAGR – -0.8% 641,000 Rooms 547,000 Rooms
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Midscale With F&B Chains Room Demand – Seasonally Adjusted January 1989 to February 2006 CAGR – -1.1%
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Economy Chains Room Supply – Actual and Seasonally Adjusted January 1989 to February 2006 CAGR – 3.0% 459,000 Rooms 731,000 Rooms
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Economy Chains Room Demand – Seasonally Adjusted January 1989 to February 2006 CAGR – 2.4%
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Key 15 Markets Room Supply Percent Change Twelve Months Ending March 2006
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Total U.S. Summary of Condotel Pipeline – March 2006 Source: STR Condotel Pipeline, part of the STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline 232 Projects with a total of 98,237 reported* rooms Rooms are broken out as follows ( % of total): Hotel Rooms: 33,270 33.9% Condo Hotel Rooms:49,068 49.9% Total Affecting Nightly Room Supply: 82,338 83.8% Non-rental Residences:14,436 14.7% Timeshare Rooms: 1,463 1.5% * Some projects have not yet reported room counts
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Total United States Development Pipeline – Rooms March 2006 Hotels vs. Hotel Rooms in Condotels Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline For Reference: STR Supply Increase Forecast 2006: 54k rooms (1.2%) PhaseHotel Rooms Hotel Rooms in Condo Hotels% In Construction 111,45610,2679.2% Final Planning17,7411,5338.6% Planning208,37714,0206.7% Active Pipeline337,57425,8207.6% Pre-Planning63,2197,45011.8% Total400,79333,2708.3%
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Total United States Hotel Rooms vs. Condotel Rooms vs. All Rooms March 2006 Phase Hotel Rooms in Pipeline Condo Rooms in Pipeline Total Potential Hotel Pipeline In Construction 111,456 15,626127,082 Final Planning 17,741 4,40922,150 Planning 208,377 17,904226,281 In Pre- Planning 63,219 11,12974,348 Total Development 400,793 49,068449,861
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Total United States All Rooms vs. Condotel Rooms March 2006 Phase Total Potential Pipeline Total Condotel Pipeline Ratio: Condo vs Total In Construction 127,082 28,69123% Final Planning 22,150 8,04036% Planning 226,281 41,64318% In Pre- Planning 74,348 19,86327% Total Development 449,861 98,23722%
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Annual Occupancy 2003 - 2005 Total US vs. Condo Hotels vs. Destination Resorts %
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Annual ADR 2003 - 2005 Total US vs. Condo Hotels vs. Destination Resorts $
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Annual ADR Percent Change 2002 - 2005 Total US vs. Condo Hotels vs. Destination Resorts %
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Total United States Active Development Pipeline - Rooms Change From Last Year Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline PhaseMarch 2006Mach 2005Difference% Change In Construction 111,456 99,526 11,93012.0% Final Planning 17,741 14,928 2,81318.8% Planning 208,377 173,048 35,32920.4% Active Pipeline 337,574 287,502 50,07217.4% Pre-Planning 63,219 83,178 (19,959)-24.0% Total 400,793 370,680 30,113-7%
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Total United States Rooms Opened – In Thousands 2000 – 2006P Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline Slight Increase in Supply Still is No Threat
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Total United States Supply/Demand Percent Change 2002 – 2006P
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Total United States Occupancy Percent Change 2002 – 2006P
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Total United States Occupancy Percent 2002 – 2006P
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Total United States ADR Percent Change 2002 – 2006P
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Total United States RevPAR Percent Change 2002 – 2006P
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Lodging Industry Issues Source: STR Construction Costs Interest Rates Steel, Concrete, Lumber - Availability Land (Competition for Sites) Hurricanes IMPACT – Cap on Supply Growth
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Lodging Industry Issues Source: STR Rising Operating Costs Energy - Natural Gas, Electricity Insurance – Health Care, Property, Liability Labor - Visa caps, union contracts, aging work force IMPACT – Higher operating costs
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Lodging Industry Issues Source: STR Amenity Creep “Bed Wars” HDTV, Flat Screens, Plasma, In-Room Entertainment Internet Access (Land Based, Wi-Fi) Office Away from the Office Custom/Branded Amenities Changing Ownership/Flag IMPACT – Higher operating/capital expense
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Lodging Industry Issues Source: STR Demand Leakage – Particularly in Specific Markets Condo Hotels Cruise Ships Timeshare Friends and Relatives Associated with Experience Travel – Dude Ranches, Fishing Camps IMPACT – Slower Revenue Growth
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Lodging Industry Issues Source: STR Transportation Problems Airlines – Consolidation, Losses, Inconvenience, Crowds Fuel Costs – High Gasoline Costs Infrastructure – Highway Construction, Traffic Jams IMPACT – Inhibit demand
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Lodging Industry Issues Source: STR Global Issues Terrorism Bird Flu (other outbreaks) Natural Disasters Currency Fluctuations Domestic Unrest Wars IMPACT - Varies
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Lodging Industry Issues Source: STR Supply/Demand/Pricing Supply Growth Remains Benign – Condo Hotels Solid Demand Growth – Degrees of Good, Some Not So Good Changing Demand – Experience Travel, Baby Boomers Occupancy Growth Slows – Varies Widely by Market Aggressive Pricing – Could Double CPI, Control Internet Higher Industry Profits – More Difficult for each Property IMPACT – Higher Revenues
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Marketpropsrooms RevPAR % ChgMarketpropsrooms RevPAR % Chg Louisiana South2752444548.6%Seattle, WA3333735713.4% Jackson, MS103889038.0%Maui Island, HI1071536113.2% Houston, TX5826059828.1%Fort Lauderdale, FL2942864013.1% Mississippi4163506124.0%Phoenix, AZ3895374513.0% Louisiana North1831667122.9%Memphis, TN-AR-MS2142042312.5% Oahu Island, HI962980721.7%Denver, CO2743766312.5% Mobile, AL94832021.5%Salt Lake City-Ogden, UT1601940012.4% Austin, TX2232536120.3%Little Rock, AR1191058312.4% Augusta, GA-SC104804319.6%Birmingham, AL1431477412.0% California North Central2631630318.4%Arizona Area4552887311.8% Fort Worth-Arlington, TX2432479818.2%San Diego, CA4475330911.7% Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA4265230817.0%Utah Area3662183311.7% Texas East8515547616.9%Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA9789575111.6% Miami-Hialeah, FL3544578416.5%New Orleans, LA1742779911.3% Charlotte, NC-SC2763010116.4% Tulsa, OK1271222416.1%Albany/Schenectady, NY128108250.9% New York, NY3827964615.7%Savannah, GA126117230.8% Atlanta, GA7459197914.7%Hartford, CT116118240.8% San Antonio, TX3043335014.4%Nevada (Exc Las Vegas)291354070.6% San Jose-Santa Cruz, CA3122949014.3%Alaska221160610.0% Greenville-Spartanburg, SC1601454514.3%Maine36521007-0.7% Dallas, TX5587055614.2%Vermont29316850-2.0% Wyoming3442008114.0%Georgia South47532729-2.2% Tucson, AZ1361521613.5%Rhode Island1119166-2.9% Portland, OR2522429413.4%Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA15112142-7.2%
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