1. The future of biodiversity? BIODIVERSITY UNDERTHREAT: To look at possible futures for the biodiversity of our planet To evaluate the various strategies

2. Changing Perceptions of Ecosystems PEOPLE’S perceptions of ecosystems Perception: Need to use ecosystems as a direct source of income Impact: degradation of biodiversity Action: deforestation, conversion to farmland, overfishing Perception: Need to conserve ecosystems and use sustainably Action: Management of ecosystems and sustainable yields Impact: Positive impact on biodiversity Education to alter perception Provision of alternative income sources and management methods

3.  The Millennium Ecosystems Assessment (MEA), tried to explore plausible futures for ecosystems and human well being by 2050  They explored  New development pathways- one where world increasingly globalises, the other where it becomes increasingly regional  2 different approaches to ecosystem management- one in which actions are reactive and most problems are addressed only after they are obvious, the other in which ecosystem management is proactive and policies seek to manage ecosystem services for the future Scenarios

4. The MEAs 4 scenarios GLOBAL ORCHESTRATION (1) Globally connected society focussing on global trade and economic liberalisation Approach to ecosystem issues is reactive. Strong steps are taken to reduce poverty and inequality and invests in public goods. Economic growth is highest here and predicted population is lowest ORDER FROM STRENGTH (2) Regionalised and fragmented world, concerned with security and protection. Little attention to public goods. Reactive apporach to ecosystem management Economic growth rates are lowest (esp in poorer areas) Population growth is the highest ADAPTING MOSAIC (3) Regional watershed scale ecosystems are focus of political and economic activity. Local management of ecosystems common. Proactive ecosystem management. Initial economic growth is low but increases over time. Population nearly as high as in 2 TECHNO GARDEN (4) Globally connected world reliant on env sound tech, using highly managed ecosystems to deliver services. Takes a proactive approach to ecosystem management Economic growth relatively high and accelerates. Population is mid range of scenarios

5.  Use pg 132-133 to help  What are the pros and cons of each of the 4 scenarios?  Which overall do you think offers the best scenario? Why? What do you think?

6.  Defines two possible pathways (actions and ways), on the basis of these WWF anticipates 4 possible scenarios  Business as usual- increased ecological footprint and no reduction in the overshoot (ecological deficit) or of the degree to which consumption exceeds biological capacities  Slow shift- gradual eco footprint reduction through developing sustainable policies so that biological capacities recover by 2100  Rapid reduction- radical policies to control ecological footprint, overshoot eliminated by 2040  Shrink and share- breaking down the world into regions in order to share responsibilities of controlling overshoot by global cooperation WWF’s living Planet Index Report

7.  Signed by 150 world leaders at Rio Earth Summit in 1992  Signed to achieve reduction in current loss rate of biodiversity at all scales  Convention recognises people’s role in protection and conservation that people need to have security before protecting the environment around them  The positive trend from this  Protected areas have doubled  Water quality has been improved The convention on Biodiversity

8.  Temperate degradation is predicted to reduce, but tropical will increase  Time lags are too big changes cannot make a difference over night it takes years, so sooner started sooner results seen  Agricultural efficiency needs to improve rapidly to reduce impact on biodiversity  Trade agreements should involve looking at how biodiversity is affected  Strategies to reduce poverty need to include conservation and sustainable biodiversity use What are the prospects of achieving the target?

9. Study Figure 2. a)Suggest reasons for the trends in the health of the four groups show. (10) b)Using named examples, examine the relationship between levels of economic development and attitudes towards conservation of ecosystems.(15)