1. WAGES AND SALARIES TRENDS IN ITALY September the 26th, 2013 International Trade Union House Brussels Dr. Lorenzo Birindelli 1

2. A MODEST REAL GROSS WAGES GROWTH, WITH SOME DOWNTURNS Key concepts: National-sectoral Collectively Agreed Wages and salaries Earnings (all wages items) Inflation (CPI, Deflator) 2

3. Gross earnings levels in selected EU countries at constant prices. Full-time and full-year equivalent employee average in the total economy. Private consumption expenditure deflator SOURCE: calculations on OECD data (Dataset LFS - Average annual wages). 3

4. Gross earnings levels in selected OECD countries at constant prices. Average compound annual growth rates (%) Full-time and full-year equivalent employee in the total economy. Private consumption expenditure deflator SOURCE: calculations on OECD data (Dataset: LFS - Average annual wages). 4

5. ITALY. National-sectoral Collectively Agreed Wages on Earnings Ratio (%) Gross values 1992-2012 5 SOURCE: calculations on ISTAT data.

6. National-sectoral Collectively Agreed Wages&Salaries Index, Earnings and Consumer Prices Index (HICP) Yearly growth rates 1993-2014 (%) Wages and Earnings are gross and at nominal values 6 SOURCE: calculations on ISTAT and OECD data.

7. The fiscal burden on labour (but also the financial base of the Italian welfare state) Key concepts : Tax-wedge Social contribution on employers and employees Personal income taxation 7

8. Selected EU countries. Average tax wedge (%) for a single person at 100% of average earnings with no child. Year 2001 and 2012 8 SOURCE: calculations on OECD data (Taxing Wages Enquiry).

9. ITALY. Comparison of standard average personal tax rates (%) for a given power purchasing parity. 2001 vs. 2013 9 SOURCE: author’s calculations.

10. PROGRESSING DOWNWARDS Key concepts : Individual income distribution Paid and not paid time spans Part-time 10

11. ITALY. Employees’ income tax returns (individuals) by taxable personal income classes at 2011 prices (%). 2001 vs. 2011 (euro per year) 11 SOURCE: calculations on Dipartimento delle Finanze (MEF Finance Department) data.

12. THE GOOD REASONS Key concepts: Checking unemployment Tackling inflation Modest (but positive) employment quantitative trends 12

13. ITALY, FRANCE AND GERMANY. Unemployment rates 1990-2014 (%) 13 SOURCE: calculations on OECD data (Dataset: Economic Outlook No 93 - June 2013 ).

14. ITALY, FRANCE AND GERMANY. Yearly Inflation rates 1990-2014 (%) 14 SOURCE: calculations on OECD data (Dataset Economic Outlook No 93 - June 2013).

15. THE NEGATIVE SPILL-OVERS (WITH OTHERS DETERMINANTS, TOO) Key concepts: Low productivity (both factors) track Low growth 15

16. Selected OECD countries. GDP, Employment and Multi-factor productivity Average compound annual growth rates 1993-2007 (%) 16 SOURCE: calculations on OECD data (Dataset Economic Outlook No 93 - June 2013; Productivity Database – update July 2013).

17. WHAT WE ARE FACING NOW Key concepts: Manufacturing decline Erosion of the social expenditure financial (and political) bases 17

18. ITALY. Actual (including 2013-14 estimates) and potential Gross Domestic Product at constant prices 18 SOURCE: calculations on OECD data (Dataset Economic Outlook No 93 - June 2013).