1. Conflict and the Environment Betts, pages 483-507

2. Overview Territorial conflicts Territorial conflicts Other resource conflicts (e.g. water) Other resource conflicts (e.g. water)

3. The Importance of Territory 1) Territory is an essential characteristic of a nation-state. 2) Territory is important for the national economy. 3) Territory is important for defense. 4) Territory can be linked to a particular ethnic or religious group. 5) Psychological importance

4. Contiguity and War Question: are contiguous states (with shared borders) more likely to fight each other? Question: are contiguous states (with shared borders) more likely to fight each other? John Vasquez examines this question in his research. John Vasquez examines this question in his research. Between 1816-1980, 88% of interstate wars (59 of 67) and 86% (24 of 28) of all rivalries have been between neighbors. Between 1816-1980, 88% of interstate wars (59 of 67) and 86% (24 of 28) of all rivalries have been between neighbors.

5. Competing Explanations for the Contiguity-War Relationship Proximity Neighbors fight because they can reach each other (loss of strength with distance) Neighbors fight because they can reach each other (loss of strength with distance) Problem: contiguity remains fairly constant, but war is infrequent Problem: contiguity remains fairly constant, but war is infrequent Technology alters military reach over time Technology alters military reach over time

6. Competing Explanations for the Contiguity-War Relationship Interaction Borders provide more opportunity for conflict Borders provide more opportunity for conflict Problem: we cannot account for cooperation in some contiguous dyads and conflict in others Problem: we cannot account for cooperation in some contiguous dyads and conflict in others

7. Competing Explanations for the Contiguity-War Relationship Territoriality (Vasquez) Wars arise from specific territorial disputes Wars arise from specific territorial disputes Proximity provides the opportunity for war, while a territorial dispute provides the willingness for war Proximity provides the opportunity for war, while a territorial dispute provides the willingness for war Humans have an inherited tendency towards territoriality, the tendency to occupy and defend territory Humans have an inherited tendency towards territoriality, the tendency to occupy and defend territory Learned behavior: the use of force to resolve territorial disputes Learned behavior: the use of force to resolve territorial disputes

8. Empirical Evidence The most common issue at stake in war and in militarized disputes is territory. The most common issue at stake in war and in militarized disputes is territory. Holsti (1991): 80-90% of the wars from 1648-1989 involved contests over territory Holsti (1991): 80-90% of the wars from 1648-1989 involved contests over territory MID data (1816-1992): over ¼ of all disputes involve territory MID data (1816-1992): over ¼ of all disputes involve territory Territorial claims (ICOW): All major borders in the Americas have been disputed at some point since 1816. Territorial claims (ICOW): All major borders in the Americas have been disputed at some point since 1816.

9. Empirical Evidence Militarized response and war is much more likely in territorial disputes (Hensel) Militarized response and war is much more likely in territorial disputes (Hensel) Territorial disputes produce recurrent conflict (Huth, Hensel); 72% of MIDs involving territorial issues are followed by another MID, versus 58% for nonterritorial disputes Territorial disputes produce recurrent conflict (Huth, Hensel); 72% of MIDs involving territorial issues are followed by another MID, versus 58% for nonterritorial disputes

10. Policy Prescriptions The greatest threat to peace today stems from nationalist claims for new states (Vasquez) The greatest threat to peace today stems from nationalist claims for new states (Vasquez) Such claims create the potential for new territorial disputes and conflict Such claims create the potential for new territorial disputes and conflict Once boundary issues are resolved, the chances for war are small Once boundary issues are resolved, the chances for war are small

11. Other Resource Conflicts Cross-border rivers (In the Americas, 8.6% of rivers crossing state boundaries have been the subject of a claim) Cross-border rivers (In the Americas, 8.6% of rivers crossing state boundaries have been the subject of a claim) Maritime zones (In the Americas, 43% of adjoining maritime zones have been the subject of a claim) Maritime zones (In the Americas, 43% of adjoining maritime zones have been the subject of a claim) Source: Issue Correlates of War (ICOW) Project (Hensel and Mitchell)