1. The Demographic Future of the Great Plains Richard Rathge North Dakota State University Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Rural Sociological Society, Louisville, KY, Aug. 12, 2006 Research support from USDA North Dakota Rural Development Center and regional research project W1001.

2. Study Methods Data from State Demographic Units –12 states in Great Plains (all 1,009 counties) –Age cohorts by county-type Projections from 2000 to 2020

4. Percentage Change in Total Population U.S. Counties: 1990 to 2000

5. Nonmetro Farming-Dependent Counties, 1989 Other nonmetro counties Farming counties Metro counties Counties with 20 percent or more of income (labor or proprietor) from farming Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

6. Source: ERS, USDA

7. (20K+)(2.5K-20K)(lt 2.5K)

10. North Dakota Cass County McIntosh County 40 similar counties 4 similar counties Total Counties = 53

11. Figure 7. Projected Percent Change in Total Population in the Great Plains States by County: 2000 to 2020 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000; Individual state agencies providing population projections

12. A Maturing Age Distribution, 2000 (National data) 14121086420 14121086420 Population (in millions) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base. 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Male Female

13. A Maturing Age Distribution, 2020 Male Female 1412108642014121086420 Population (in millions) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base. 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4

14. 2000 Census – Rural and Urban Population Distributions by Age and Gender for North Dakota Traditional Babyboom X Generation Y Generation

15. Source: Census Bureau & North Dakota State Data Center N.D. Labor Force, by Generation

16. Population Distribution by Age of Earner in North Dakota: 1980-2020 Source: U.S. Census Bureau and the North Dakota State Data Center Peaked in 1990 Peaked in 2000 Relatively stable until 2005

17. Figure 1. Projected Percent Change in Persons Ages 0 to 4 in the Great Plains States by County: 2000 to 2020 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000; Individual state agencies providing population projections

18. Figure 2. Projected Percent Change in Persons Ages 5 to 19 in the Great Plains States by County: 2000 to 2020 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000; Individual state agencies providing population projections

19. Number of Counties by Population Gain or Loss in the Great Plains by Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Status Between Census 2000 and 2020 Projections Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Population Projections from Individual State Agencies

20. Figure 3. Projected Percent Change in Persons Ages 20 to 34 in the Great Plains States by County: 2000 to 2020 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000; Individual state agencies providing population projections

21. Figure 4. Projected Percent Change in Persons Ages 35 to 54 in the Great Plains States by County: 2000 to 2020 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000; Individual state agencies providing population projections

22. Number of Counties by Population Gain or Loss in the Great Plains by Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Status Between Census 2000 and 2020 Projections Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Population Projections from Individual State Agencies

23. Figure 5. Projected Percent Change in Persons Ages 55 to 64 in the Great Plains States by County: 2000 to 2020 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000; Individual state agencies providing population projections

24. Figure 6. Projected Percent Change in Persons Ages 65 and Older in the Great Plains States by County: 2000 to 2020 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000; Individual state agencies providing population projections

25. Number of Counties by Population Gain or Loss in the Great Plains by Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Status Between Census 2000 and 2020 Projections Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Population Projections from Individual State Agencies

26. Change in the Total Population and Elderly Population in the Great Plains by Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Status: Census 1980 to 2000 and Projections 2010 and 2020 Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Population Projections from Individual State Agencies

27. Policy Implications Future viability of many GP areas in doubt Need to address labor force issues –Significant shifts especially in rural areas Big issue to address is the elderly boom –6.6 million net expansion of those 55+ –¼ of the total net change in population Elderly expansion equally felt urban-rural

28. Conclusion If history is a guide, the future of the Great Plains depends on its ability to adapt to technological innovation The success of the Great Plains will depend on its ability to work interdependently This demographic analysis documents the dramatic shift that will occur in age cohorts which will force a new way of thinking.