1. Energy Sector Analysis- India Prepared by Dr.R.N.Patel Updated by Pro. Shebaz Memon

2. Outline of Talk Energy Flow Diagram Objectives Data Sources Primary energy Power sector Energy Balance

3. Energy Flow Diagram PRIMARY ENERGY SECONDARY ENERGY COAL, OIL, SOLAR, GAS POWER PLANTS, REFINERIES REFINED OIL, ELECTRICITY RAILWAYS, TRUCKS, PIPELINES WHAT CONSUMED BY DILIVERED ENERGY AUTOMOBILE, LAMP,MOTOR, STOVE MOTIVE POWER, RADIENT ENERGY DISTANCE TRAVELLED, ILLUMINATION, COOKED FOOD, ETC. ENERGY CONVERSION FACILITY TRANSMISSON & DISTN. SYSTEMS FINAL ENERGY ENERGY UTILISATION EQUIP. & SYSTEMS USEFUL ENERGY END USE ACTIVITY PRIMARY ENERGY SECONDARY ENERGY

4. Data Sources Commercial Fuels- National Statistics Ministry of Coal, Petroleum & N Gas, Power Annual Reports Compilations- TERI, CMIE CMIE – center for monitoring Indian economy NCAER-National council for applied economic research US department of Energy International Energy Agency

5. Units Physical Quantities- Coal, Oil (Tonnes) Oil – Barrels Natural Gas- m 3 (Nm 3 or Sm 3 ) Electricity kWh, Mus (Million units) Gross Calorific Value (GCV/HHV), Net Calorific Value (NCV/LHV) – based on fuel composition Coal Equivalent/ Oil Equivalent – In terms of energy equivalents of Coal or Oil

6. Commercial Energy Supply in India Data Coal 640 MT(2012) ( 540 Domestic +100 Imported) ( 540 Domestic +100 Imported) Lignite 42 Million Tonnes(2012)Lignite 42 Crude Oil 38 million Tonnes (Domestic) (2012) 171 Million Tonnes (Import) (2012) Total @ ~209 Million Tonnes Natural Gas 45 billion m 345 Hydro Installed Capacity 37567 MW, Hydro Production of Primary Sources 163,796GWh163,796 Nuclear Installed Capacity 4780 MW, Nuclear Production of Primary Sources 29664 GWh

7. Commercial Energy Supply in India (2011-12) SourceSupplyCalorific Value Total Energy (PJ) Coal640 Million Tonnes18.8 MJ/kg12032.0 Oil (Domestic) 38 million Tonnes 42 MJ/kg 1596.0 Oil (Import)1717182.0 Natural Gas45 billion m 3 9300 kCal/m 3 1751.8 Hydro163796 MU85%693.7 Nuclear32863MU25%473.2 Total 23728.8

8. India – Primary Commercial Energy- 2011

9. Share of Future Energy Supply (%)

10. India – Overall Energy population 1210 million (2011) 99600 billion Rs GDP ( 1.848 trillion USD ) (Gross Domestic Product) (2011), world bank 23.6 EJ (560 million tonnes of oil equiv.) (2011), BP Statistical Review 21.52 GJ/capita/year (0.51 toe/capita/year)-2005 19.50 GJ/capita/year (0.462 toe/capita/year)-2011 Per capita GDP = 5410 Rs. ($1000) Energy/GDP = 0.56 kgoe/$

12. Per Capita Energy Consumption

13. Energy Intensity

14. India - Fossil Fuel Reserves FuelReservesProdnR/P ratio Coal and Lignite (Million tonnes) 286000 + 41000 = 327000 533 + 38 = 571 ~ 572+ Crude Oil (million tonnes) 757 38~ 20 N. Gas (Billion m 3 ) 1241 52~ 24 Nuclear Uranium and Thorium(tonns) Not accurately estimated 170000+225000 -~50

16. Energy demand by Sector. Energy demand by Fuel. To produce 1 Unit of electricity, we release 1 kg of CO 2. India responsible for 700 million metric tons of CO2. We are 3 th largest contributor to the world pollution. India accounts for 5.3% of greenhouse emission.for 5.3%

18. Power Sector 616 kWh electricity use/capita/year616 Plant load factor = Actual generation / Max possible generation (rated load) Plant Heat Rate = Heat input / Electricity output Net Power = Gross – Auxiliary Consumption Installed capacity 249488.31(As on 30-06-2014)MW249488.31(As on 30-06-2014)MW Electricity production = 762.67 billion kWh during April’12 January’13762.67 billion kWh during April’12 January’13

19. Electricity through different routes- as on 30/09/201330/09/2013

20. Indian Power Sector

21. NARORA 4 40 MWe ( 2x220) NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS IN OPERATION RAWATBHATA 740 MWe (1x100+1x200+2x220) KAIGA 440 MWe (2x220) KALPAKKAM 440 MWe (2x220) KAKRAPAR 440 MWe (2X220) TARAPUR 860 MWe (2x160 + 1x540)

23. Wind Power: Potential (49130MW)

24. STATE-WISE WIND POWER INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW) (UPTO 31.05.2014)31.05.2014

25. Wind Power Growth

26. Biomass Estimation (Million tonnes) SourceNCAERIREPREDB Fuel wood93169252 Dung cake83.254.2106.9 Agriculture Residue 36.762.899.2 Source : Urja Bharti, MNES 1994

27. Biomass Estimation About 32% of the total primary energy use in the country is still derived from biomass and more than 70% of the country’s population depends upon it for its energy needs. Uncertainties in estimation Usage- Domestic, Brick klin, Rice mills, and other industries Per capita biomass use approx constant over last 20 years 6.4 GJ/capita/year 6180 PJ – 1997-98 (4% of world) population 17.1% of world population

28. TREND OF CATEGORYWISE ENERGY CONSUMPTION

29. Electricity 214.6 GW Installed Capacity as on 28-02-13 (about 4.1% of4.1 World Capacity Average 0.177 kW of installed capacity/capita World Installed capacity 0.73 kW/capita Low Electricity Consumption –India about 818 kWh/capita/yr818 as on 2011 Nepal 93, Bangladesh 279 kWh/capita/yr as on 2008 World Average Electricity Consumption- 2894 kWh/capita/yr Electricity production as on 2008 is 20,261 billion kWh20,261

30. Electricity Characteristics High Losses - T&D and Theft 24% in most SEBs24 As many as 559241 villages out of 593732 (about 94.2%)559241 Villages has been electrified in India as on 31-01-2013 Electricity Sector – from State Controlled Monopoly – Transition – to Regulated Sector with Privatization Subsidized electricity to agriculture sector, low usage residential

31. Electricity Sector SEB annual loss by 31 march 2011 is Rs 68,000crores Gap of 92 p/kWh- between cost of supply and revenue Peak shortage 12.9%, energy shortage 10.3% Estimated requirements of 400,000 MW additional400,000 MW capacity by 2032

32. 70% increase in greenhouse gas emissions from 1970 to 2004 (2004 at 49 GtCO 2 equivalent) Automotive (120%) & Energy (145%) sectors main contributors Energy efficiency, adopting cleaner fuels & renewable energy key levers for mitigation Source: Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, May 2007 Climate Change – Global Facts

33. Source: Govt. of India, Initial National Communication to UNFCC, June 2004 Set to increase 3 folds from 1990 to 2020 (3000 million tons of CO 2 equivalent) Climate Change – Indian Facts http://warmgloblog.blogspot.in/2012_02_01_archive.html

34. India- Electricity Generation

36. Impact of growth in demand on Environment

37. Global Power Sector Global GDP projected to grow at 3.4% annually till 2030 Emerging economies like China and India projected to grow by 8 – 10% Developed economies currently take lion’s share in energy consumption A fourth of the world’s population lives in darkness Increase in net electricity consumption by 2015: 42% New generation capacity required by 2030: 1,600 GW (5,087 GW including replacement capacity) Twin threats: Inadequate and insecure supply of energy sources Environmental harm due to over-consumption of polluting fuels

38. Strong Correlation between per Capita GDP and per Capita Electricity Consumption. Forecasts Point Towards a Robust GDP Growth over the next 3 to 5 decades. ENERGY GROWTH IN INDIA Source: http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/05/24/em- investing-check-out-the-grid/#axzz2QPfwAfnIhttp://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/05/24/em- investing-check-out-the-grid/#axzz2QPfwAfnI http://www.barc.gov.in/rcaindia/4_5.html

39. Country’s Energy Scenario – A Quick Recap Acute shortage of Power at present. Energy Shortage was 10.3% Peak Shortage was 12.9% Power Generation Capacity addition is far below the expected (only 54000 MW against expected 62000 MW during 2007 – 2012)54000 MW We need to urgently ensure power availability to sustain our GDP growth. Total Energy Production Total Energy Consumption