1. The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020
3rd AD-HOC FISH PRICE INDEX WORKSHOP
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook
by Stefania Vannuccini Fishery Statistician (Commodities) FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Statistics and Information Service 1

2. Outlook models Key role of outlook models
Importance to have a good understanding on perspectives of developments in the food and agriculture sector
Need to develop a model to analyze the outlook of the fisheries and aquaculture sector 2

3. Importance of fisheries sector
In terms of food security
The significant growth of aquaculture production
The expansion of the coverage of food products and of the oil and feed markets
The links and interactions with the agriculture sector 3

4. Interaction fisheries-agriculture
Integrating farming
Ecosystems, markets, products, prices, innovation, technology
Competition on water and land resources
Feed
Fish meal, fish oil
Raw material from agriculture and livestock 4

5. Aglink-CO.SI.MO. OECD FAO Aglink-CO.SI.MO. modelling system
Partial equilibrium model for international agriculture and food markets
Medium term projections
Perform alternative scenarios
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook publication 5

6. AGLINK Model OECD Dynamic, partial equilibrium supply-demand model
Yearly basis since early 1990s
Medium-term projections
Agricultural key commodities
Assumptions
Coverage
Close collaboration with member countries
Influence of agricultural policy 6

7. CO.SI.MO. Model FAO World Food Model FAO COmmodity SImulation MOdel
Yearly basis since 2004
Updating Cycle
Coverage
Commodities
Macro economic assumptions
Parameters 7

8. OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook
Country views are the starting point
AGLINK CO.SI.MO is used to get a consistent and coherent picture
Model outcomes adjusted through expert opinions
Final reviews in OECD commodity working groups
The datasets are available at: 8

9. Fish model
Construction of a satellite model on fish and fishery products
After a few years of use as a stand alone component, possible merging to the AGLINK-COSIMO model
Benefit also for the model as will expand the coverage of food consumption and in particular of protein as well as of the oil and feed markets 9

10. Fish model Two supply functions (capture and aquaculture)
Capture: either exogenous, endogenous but only affected by el Niño and endogenous but responding to price (13%)
Aquaculture, 99% endogenous and responding to price of output and feed
Fish meal and oil are composed by two components: from whole fish and from fish residue

11. Fish model
Demand is split to three end uses, food, fishmeal/fish oil and other uses (kept exogenous)
Demand for fish meal and oil responds to the need of aquaculture, the own price and the price of the respecive oilseed products
Imports and exports of fish are either exogenous or a function of domestic and world prices adjusted for tariffs and transport costs

12. Fish model: assumptions
El nino will affect South American capture in 2010, 2015 and 2020.
Fishing quota under-fill will be minimal.
Aquaculture productivity gains will be smaller than in the previous decade.
New feeding technics will not prevent increase in the ratio of fish to oilseed meal price.
Japan fish and seafood production affected by tsunami in 2011 and gradually returning after. 12

13. OECD-FAO Agricultural outlook 2011-2020

14. Agricultural outlook 2011-2020
Agricultural commodity prices in real terms higher compared to
Production costs are rising and productivity growth is slowing (1.7% compared to 2.6%)
Energy related costs and feed cost will continue to increase
Resource pressures on water and land are increasing
Need of further investments into productivity enhancements
Per capita food consumption will expand most rapidly in Eastern Europe, Asia and Latin America, with highest increases for vegetable oils, sugar, meat and dairy products
Trade is expected to grow by 2% per year, slower than the previous decade

15. Outlook: GDP GROWTH

16. Growth of per capita consumption 2011-20 vs 2008-2010

17. TOTAL FISHERY PRODUCTION
million tonnes 17

18. Projections for capture fisheries
million tonnes
El nino 18

19. Capture fisheries
* Indicates excluding USA, China and EU27 respectively 19

20. Projections for aquaculture production
1 000 tonnes 20

21. Growth rate of fish production by decades
Source: FAO

22. Aquaculture production
Total= 54.6 mt
Total=72.4 mt
* Indicates excluding USA, China and EU27 respectively 22

23. Fish meal production
million tonnes 23

24. Chile and Peru, fish meal
million tonnes 24

25. World utilization and consumption projections
Utilization in million tonnes
kg/capita
Source: FAO

26. Increasing role of aquaculture in human consumption
Source: FAO

27. Surpass in 2015
million tonnes 27

28. World per capita fish consumption
kg per capita 28

29. General growth of fish consumption
Source: FAO

30. Trend in world trade of fish and fishery products
million tonnes live weight
Trend 30

31. 2020: trade of fish food by countries in quantity
Exports
Imports
Source: FAO

32. Share of 7 major exporters to increase
Total= 34.8 mt
Total= 43.4 mt 32

33. Share of major importing countries to remain rather stable (about 68%)
Total= 34.1 mt
Total= mt 33

34. Fish price projected to increase as prices of other commodities
Traded products 34

35. Growing prices
Source: FAO

36. Outlook: fish vs meat prices
Source: FAO-OECD

37. Growing prices
Source: FAO

38. Conclusion
Projections indicate a continuous rise in demand for fish and fishery products, with growing trade and consumption
Need to long-term resource conservation and effective management of resources as well as of aquaculture
Differentiation of consumption, opening of new markets
Risk of increase of costs of production due to stable production of fishmeal/fish oil
Too high prices in the market will risk the effect of substitution with other emerging commodities

39. Outlook for fish: supply
Major increases will depend on aquaculture.
Factors to influence future growth of aquaculture:
costs/availability of feed for selected species; access and availability of areas/water
environmental impacts
availability of technology and finance
effects on biodiversity
climate changes
governance
food safety and traceability issues
Capture: importance of implement more cautious and effective fisheries management

40. Outlook for fish: demand
Population/rural/urban
Income
Retail concentration in developed and developing which will affect demand
Product development, technological innovation
Continuous increase of trade
Increased imports from developing countries
Outsourcing of processing will continue
Slow growth in per capita consumption

41. Improvements of the model
obtaining better transport cost data
obtaining more representative tariffs for the aggregated components
obtaining or estimating FH food demand elasticities
obtaining or estimating FHA supply elasticities
identifying a better way to estimate value of capture fisheries

42. Next steps Present the fish model to the OECD Committee of Fisheries
Ameliorate the fish model. Possible inclusion of the Fish Price Index in the Fish model
Establish a better collaboration with OECD Fisheries
Prepare a new run of the fish model and insert a new fish chapter in the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook
Final goal: inclusion of the Fish Model in the Aglink-CO.SI.MO. overall model

43. Links FH model and AGLINK-CO.SI.MO
Three major links exist:
introduction of the FH consumer price in the food demand functions of AGLINK/COSIMO
the feed demand system
the interaction between the FM and FL markets with their oilseed counterparts

44. Other integrations
The Fishery and Aquaculture Department of FAO is also investigating for the possible integration of a fisheries and aquaculture component in some of the already existing models as well as to look for other potential models of FAO and other institutions/organizations 44

45. Fish to
Fish to 2030 report, updating of Fish to 2020 (Delgado, et al. 2003)
IMPACT model of the IFPRI
Database prepared
Modeling in development phase 45

46. FAO Global Perspective Studies for food and agriculture
Review
Long-term projections (30-40 years)of consumption and production of agricultural products and food, and of trends in world food security
Recommandations by consultant to include fishery component in the studies 46

47. UK FORESIGHT Project run by the UK Government for Science
The project looks out to 2050 and take a global view of the food system, considering issues of demand, production and supply as well as broader environmental issues 47

48. THANK YOU!!!