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Russian Energy Strategy up to Period 2030: Questions, Troubles, Risks Dr. Alexey Gromov Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy Moscow, Russia.

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Presentation on theme: "Russian Energy Strategy up to Period 2030: Questions, Troubles, Risks Dr. Alexey Gromov Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy Moscow, Russia."— Presentation transcript:

1 Russian Energy Strategy up to Period 2030: Questions, Troubles, Risks Dr. Alexey Gromov Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy Moscow, Russia 10th Annual Aleksanteri Conference Helsinki 27 October, 2010

2 Conception of the state energy policy in new economic conditions (Ratified by the Government: №26 of 10.09.92) Decree of the President №472 of 07.08.95 «About the basic directions of the state energy policy» Fundamentals of the ES - 2010 (Ratified by the Government: №1006 of 13.10.95) ES – 2020 (approved be decree № 1234-r of the Government of the Russian Federation of 28.08.03) ES – 2030 approved by decree N° 1715-r of the Government of the Russian Federation of 13.11.2009 1992 1995 2003 ENERGY STRATEGY 2030 and its PREDECESSORS 2 2009

3 Energy Strategy 2030 in the System of Documents of the Strategic Development Program of long-term development of the fuel and energy complex of the Russian Far East Conception of the long- term development of the Russian Federation for the year 2020 Strategy of development of the power generation in the Russian Far East Long-term forecast of the development of Russian economy for the years 2009-2030 Eastern Gas Program General scheme of allocation of power generating facilities for the year 2020 General scheme of development of the oil industry for the year 2030 General scheme of development of the gas industry for the year 2030 Conception of the state program for exploration and exploitation of the continental shelf of the Russian Federation ES-2030 State program of energy saving Investment programs of energy companies 3

4 ES-2030: from FORECAST to TARGET MODELING ES-2020 ES-2030 Forecasts and Scenarios Target Modeling 4

5 ENERGY STRATEGY 2030 approved by decree N° 1715-r of the Government of the Russian Federation of 13.11.2009 5 1 ST STAGE2 ND STAGE3 RD STAGE Growth of national economy and quality of life of the population Share of Energy sector in Economy Overcoming the crisis in the Economy and Energy sector Modernization of Energy sector Increase of power efficiency and energy saving in the Economy and Energy sector Innovative development of Energy sector New oil and gas fields development (Arctic shelf, Eastern Siberia and the Far East) Highly effective use of traditional power resources Switch to the Energy of the Future 20202022 20152013 20302009

6 State Energy Policy in Russia Rational market environment Advanced standards and regulations Subsoil resources management Development of home energy markets Formation of rational energy balance Social policy in the energy sector Regional energy policy External energy policy Scientific, technical and innovative policy Strategic initiatives Energy security Energy efficiency of economy Economic efficiency of FEC Ecological security of FEC Management of state property 6

7 Aim and Goals of the ES-2030 Efficiency of reproduction, extraction and processing of energy resources Modernization and construction of new energy infrastructure Energy and ecological efficiency of the national economy and energy sector Stable institutional environment in the energy sector Further integration of the Russian energy sector into the global energy system Aim Goals Innovative and efficient energy development Aim of the ES-2030 remains stable despite consequences of the global economic crisis 7

8 Forecasted Change of the Fuel and Energy Complex’s Role in the Russian economy 2005 2030 Energy sector in GDP Energy sector’s export in GDP Energy resources in export Investment in energy sector in total investment 8

9 Expected Dynamics of Specific Energy Intensity of GDP and Domestic Demand for Primary Energy Resources 9

10 Foreign energy policy and ES-2030 targets: Eastern and Western vectors 10 Western Vector (European Market) Eastern Vector (Asian-Pacific Market) - EU market is essential for Russian gas export (75%) - Western Vector accounts for 96% of Russian gas export (EU + other Europe) - Russia seeks for export diversification - Russia promotes eastern vector of energy export Russian Gas Export, 2009 Russian Gas Export, 2030 (projected)

11 Eastern Vector for Russian Energy Policy 11

12 EASTERN VECTOR IN ES-2030: NEW SIDES OF “OLD” TASK 12 Road Map of implementation of ES-2030 : Eastern vector task №19 «Increase in the share of the Asia-Pacific countries in the structure of the Russian energy export to 16– 17%» task №10 «Implementation of a complex of program measures for petrochemistry and gas-chemistry development in the Eastern Siberia and Far East» task № 17 «Extended reproduction and attraction of human resources for development of new areas of the Eastern Siberia and Far East» Key initiatives in the Russian energy sector: Eastern vector Energy infrastructure: development and diversification Development of oil and gas complexes in Eastern regions of Russia Exploitation of the oil and gas potential of the Northern regions of Russia and Arctic shelf Non-fuel energy Energy saving ESPO pipeline, Eastern Gas Program, petro- and gas-chemistry development Sakalin, Yakutia, Magadan, Irkutsk and Krasnoyarsk regions Shelf of the East Arctic, reanimation of the Northern Sea Way Large-scale development of hydro energy and renewables Modernization of electric power and heat supply systems in the Region Eastern vector

13 13 THE EAST IS A KEY DIRECTION OF DIVERSIFICATION OF THE RUSSIAN EXPORT Forecast of gas export Forecast of oil and oil products export

14 14 KEY PROJECTS IN THE EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE FAR EAST  Eastern Gas Program  Sakhalin development  LNG Projects in Sakhalin  Natural gas Export to China

15 15 FIRST RESULTS OF ES-2030: CAREFUL OPTIMISM 20082009 Strategic Indicator for the first stage of ES-2030 (2013-2015) Share of Eastern Siberia and the Far East in gas production 2%3,7%7-8% LNG share in gas export 0%3,5%4-5% Share of the countries of the Asia- Pacific Region in the structure of gas export 0%0%3,5%11-12%

16 Western Vector for Russian Energy Policy 16

17 17 WESTERN VECTOR IN ES-2030: KEY PROJECTS & GOALS  Nord Stream (started in April 2010)  South Stream (projected)  Shtokman (projected) task №19 Increase the Russian gas export to European market 160 bcm in 2008 120 bcm in 2009 2030 target - 200 bcm task №21 Promote the gas pricing system in Europe, including both long-term and spot contracts task № 22-23 Bilateral investment in gas projects

18 DISTURBING RESULTS OF 2009 ON EUROPEAN GAS MARKET 18 Gas production has fallen to level of 2000 12% 24% Gas export to Europe was reduced to a quarter Gas production (Russia)Gas production (GAZPROM) Export to EuropeExport (total)

19 Price situation in 2009 Price, USD/bcm Russian gas (long-term contracts, Europe) 288 LNG (US, Henry Hub)147 LNG (Great Britain, NBP)142 LNG (Japan, Korea)260 LNG (Chine)160 Source: EEGA Factors of decrease in export expectations Europe:  Competition growth (LNG, new pipelines)  Pricing change (spot market vs. long-term contracts)  Renewables & energy efficiency  Geopolitics (Nabucco, anti-Gazprom rules in 3rd Gas Directive etc.) LONG-TERM EXPORT DYNAMICS & REASONS 19 Composition of EU gas import

20 Conclusions 20

21 EXPORT EXPECTATIONS VS. REALITY 21 Risk of decrease in export on 15-20 % 15-20% Russian Gas Export forecast up to period 2030 Russian gas export forecast (high level from ES-2030) Russian gas export forecast (low level from ES-2030) Russian gas export forecast (IES expectations) Factors of decrease in export expectations Europe:  Competition growth US:  refuse of future Russian LNG (the boom of shale gas production) Asia-Pacific:  competition growth (Central Asia)

22 BALANCING EASTERN AND WESTERN VECTORS: TASKS FOR RUSSIAN ENERGY POLICY From export orientation to the domestic market Cost reduction in Russian natural gas industry Revision of investment projects - Selection of priority projects among declared in ES-2030 - Refusal of a number of ineffective projects-giants (the Southern stream, etc.) Flexibility of gas export policy - Revision of pricing system in long-term contracts of Gazprom - Flexibility increase in mutual relations with Ukraine and Central Asia 22

23 ISSUES FOR RUSSIA – EU RELATIONSHIPS - EU gas market forecast - EU secure demand for Russian natural gas - The real need for new pipeline project in relation to future demand - The transit problem & politics toward Ukraine & Belarus - 3rg Gas Directive & Regulative issues - Bilateral investment in gas fields, pipelines, and marketing 23

24 Thank you for your attention! 24

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