1. The Far-Right in London Peter John Helen Margetts David Rowland Stuart Weir Professor Helen Margetts, Oxford Internet Institute, University of Oxford Reporting on research funded by JOSEPH ROWNTREE REFORM TRUST LSE LONDON 21 st April 2006

2. Research Evidence 8 exit polls of 567 voters after 2004 European elections, 10 th June 2004: Folkestone, Bristol, Birmingham, Walsall, Newport, Glasgow, Basildon and Luton, funded by JRCT. 8 exit polls of 567 voters after 2004 European elections, 10 th June 2004: Folkestone, Bristol, Birmingham, Walsall, Newport, Glasgow, Basildon and Luton, funded by JRCT. 2 focus groups of voters in 2004 European elections 24 th June 2004 in Northampton (postal voting area), funded by JRCT 2 focus groups of voters in 2004 European elections 24 th June 2004 in Northampton (postal voting area), funded by JRCT 2004 State of the Nation poll of 2,373 citizens across Britain between 26th May 2004 and 4th June 2004, funded by JRRT. 2004 State of the Nation poll of 2,373 citizens across Britain between 26th May 2004 and 4th June 2004, funded by JRRT. 2004 London Elections Study, poll of 1474 voters straight after European & London elections 10 th June 2004, funded by ESRC, co-funded by JRCT 2004 London Elections Study, poll of 1474 voters straight after European & London elections 10 th June 2004, funded by ESRC, co-funded by JRCT 2 focus groups of younger (below 45) and older (above 45) citizens in Dagenham in March 2005, funded by JRRT 2 focus groups of younger (below 45) and older (above 45) citizens in Dagenham in March 2005, funded by JRRT Analysis of 2004 election results, census data, performance indicators in 624 wards across London, funded by JRRT Analysis of 2004 election results, census data, performance indicators in 624 wards across London, funded by JRRT

3. 2004 Election Results in London Both far-right parties did well in London and European elections of 2004 with combined share of the vote more than doubling in 2004. 20002004 London Mayoral election (1st pref) BNP0.9 3.0 UKIP1.9 6.0 BNP+UKIP2.8 9.0 London Mayoral election (2nd pref) BNP2.6 3.7 UKIP2.510.1 BNP+UKIP5.113.8 London Assembly election BNP2.7 4.7 UKIP2.0 8.2 BNP+UKIP4.712.9 19992004 European Election (in London) BNP1.6 4.0 UKIP5.4 12.2 BNP+UKIP7.016.2 Source: London Election Results, 2004

4. By 2005, far-right entering mainstream of London politics (in contrast to conventional view that far-right plays a role only on lunatic fringe of British politics) UKIP won two seats in the London Assembly (with 8.2% of vote) UKIP won two seats in the London Assembly (with 8.2% of vote) BNP narrowly missed gaining a seat in the London Assembly (with 4.7% of vote) BNP narrowly missed gaining a seat in the London Assembly (with 4.7% of vote) UKIP won one of the nine seats in the London region of the European elections UKIP won one of the nine seats in the London region of the European elections Survey Evidence 23 % of Londoners either have voted or would consider voting for the BNP in the future (London Elections Study, 2004). 23 % of Londoners either have voted or would consider voting for the BNP in the future (London Elections Study, 2004). 24 % of Londoners ‘might vote’ for the BNP in the future (JRRT State of the Nation poll, 2004) 24 % of Londoners ‘might vote’ for the BNP in the future (JRRT State of the Nation poll, 2004) 45% of respondents said that they ‘might vote’ for BNP and/or UKIP in the future while 24% said that they ‘liked’ BNP and/or UKIP (London Elections Study, 2004). 45% of respondents said that they ‘might vote’ for BNP and/or UKIP in the future while 24% said that they ‘liked’ BNP and/or UKIP (London Elections Study, 2004).

5. BNP easily most unpopular party ‘Like’/’Dislike’ feelings toward political parties in England, 2004 % +ve %DK %-ve % net +ve +ve Lab451836 +9 Lib Dem333829 +4 Green224138 -16 Con282943 -15 UKIP193347 -28 BNP 82766 -58 Source: State of the Nation, 2004 N=1,474 (all respondents)

6. More positive feelings for BNP in London than in England as a whole ‘Might vote’ for the BNP ‘in the future’ (as opposed to ‘could never vote for’) ‘Might vote’ for the BNP ‘in the future’ (as opposed to ‘could never vote for’) 24% for London, 20% for England and 17% for Britain ‘Like’ BNP (score of greater than 4 on a 1 to 7 thermometer scale from dislike a lot to like a lot) ‘Like’ BNP (score of greater than 4 on a 1 to 7 thermometer scale from dislike a lot to like a lot) 15 % for London 8 % for England 8 % for England Source: State of the Nation Poll, 2004

7. High importance ascribed to immigration – particularly by UKIP/BNP In 2004 European election exit poll 25 % of respondents felt that immigration was ‘the most important issue facing Britain today’ In 2004 European election exit poll 25 % of respondents felt that immigration was ‘the most important issue facing Britain today’ - above unemployment (5%) and fight against terrorism (20%), exceeded only by public services (47%) 77% of BNP and 53% of UKIP supporters chose immigration as most important issue 77% of BNP and 53% of UKIP supporters chose immigration as most important issue - 24 % of Conservative/Lib Dem supporters, 10 % of Labour

8. Evidence from focus groups ‘Blair should be saying “Look at this…why?” ’ Immigration the main issue Immigration the main issue ‘We’re up in arms about immigration’. ‘I didn’t choose to emigrate…I chose to stay in my country…they chose to emigrate….I had no choice as to who came to my country’. The major parties have failed The major parties have failed ‘They are the ones that let them in’. Policy solutions Policy solutions Australia and Canada have ‘got it right….: ‘we can’t go there without 100 grand’….. ‘here we just have a free NHS’.

9. Evidence from focus groups Those identifying immigration as key issue do not see themselves as racist – more that BNP is an alternative, untested party about which they know little Those identifying immigration as key issue do not see themselves as racist – more that BNP is an alternative, untested party about which they know little ‘worth a try’ voting for smaller parties. ‘just how close they can get to the British nerve as possible without being racist’ ‘I voted BNP……then I saw that documentary……then I felt I shouldn’t have done, I regretted it’

10. Evidence from focus groups ‘Blair should be saying “Look at this…why?” ’ Immigration as a symbol for other policy discontents Immigration as a symbol for other policy discontents ‘the more immigrants we have…..we are spreading our money too thinly’ ‘Quite a lot of each borough’s council tax goes on asylum seekers’….. ‘They say they have only allocated 38 properties to asylum seekers….I know for a fact that most asylum seekers in my block have been offered a property…. ‘ ‘There are so many African children going to school….I don’t begrudge the education…but they are taking more and more room in our schools’.

11. Link between UKIP and BNP I 1st and 2nd preferences for London Mayor, 2004 2nd preference BNPUKIPConLib DLab 1st preference: BNP49.222.0 7.6 7.7 UKIP21.935.714.010.1 Con 6.926.840.210.5 Lib Dem 2.1 8.326.033.9 Lab 1.6 4.811.945.5 Source: London Election Results, 2004

12. Link between BNP and UKIP support II (correlation of 0.89 for Assembly elections)

13. Socio-economic determinants of BNP support C2s most likely to vote BNP (correlation 0.7) - wards with more AB and C1 voters lowest BNP vote – wards with more C2s, Ds and Es higher levels of BNP vote C2s most likely to vote BNP (correlation 0.7) - wards with more AB and C1 voters lowest BNP vote – wards with more C2s, Ds and Es higher levels of BNP vote BNP support drawn from older age groups - lower in wards with higher proportion of younger people (correlation -0.432) BNP support drawn from older age groups - lower in wards with higher proportion of younger people (correlation -0.432) Education levels in borough an indicator of BNP support (correlation of 0.624 for ‘no qualifications’) Education levels in borough an indicator of BNP support (correlation of 0.624 for ‘no qualifications’) BNP vote higher in wards with higher proportions of white people (but racial mix of borough poor indicator) BNP vote higher in wards with higher proportions of white people (but racial mix of borough poor indicator) No link between BNP support and proportion of benefit claimants No link between BNP support and proportion of benefit claimants No link between BNP support and number of asylum seekers accepted by council No link between BNP support and number of asylum seekers accepted by council

14. Conclusions Significant and growing levels of support for far-right parties in London, with strong local variation Significant and growing levels of support for far-right parties in London, with strong local variation Strong positive relationship between support for BNP and UKIP and linkages between UKIP & BNP in voters’ minds – what happens post-UKIP? Strong positive relationship between support for BNP and UKIP and linkages between UKIP & BNP in voters’ minds – what happens post-UKIP? Higher BNP support most likely in localities with higher proportions of residents: Higher BNP support most likely in localities with higher proportions of residents: in C2, D and E (especially C2)in C2, D and E (especially C2) with no qualificationswith no qualifications in older age groupsin older age groups Immigration is key policy issue for significant subset of Londoners – an issue on which main parties are seen to have failed Immigration is key policy issue for significant subset of Londoners – an issue on which main parties are seen to have failed Immigration has become a symbol for other issues eg. housing, education. Immigration has become a symbol for other issues eg. housing, education.

15. Conclusions All these factors suggest a strong showing for the far- right is possible in 2006 local elections All these factors suggest a strong showing for the far- right is possible in 2006 local elections Policy misconceptions (particularly on the relationship between immigration and local issues) are fuelled by BNP activities and feed into electoral support for far- right Policy misconceptions (particularly on the relationship between immigration and local issues) are fuelled by BNP activities and feed into electoral support for far- right These misconceptions should be tackled at local level. These misconceptions should be tackled at local level.