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Published byBonnie Harper Modified over 9 years ago
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Piyapong (Art) Pantipjatuporn; Liefeng (Richard) Zhang; Meiling Liu
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* Introduction * Company Overview * Macroeconomic & Industry Review * Financial Analysis and Projections * Valuation * Recommendation
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[1] 03-2008: Bought 200 Shares @ $78.15 [2] 12-2008: Bought 400 shares @ $14.43 Average Down: $35.67 per share [3] 11-2010: Sold 200 shares @ $12.41. Realized loss: $4,652 [4] 12-2010, Bought 200 shares @ $12.02 [5] 10-28-2011, Price: @ $ 6.64 Unrealized Loss: $ 4192, 51.27%, Data Source: Yahoo Finance
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* Based in St. Peters, Missouri; Founded in 1959 * Global leader in the manufacture and sale of silicon wafers for semiconductor and solar material industries * SunEdison, North America's largest solar energy services provider * MEMC’s stock is traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol WFR and is included in the S&P 500 Index. MEMC. Inc Data Source: 10-K, http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/945436/000119312511042346/d10k.htm Business Areas * Semiconductor Materials * Solar Materials * Solar Energy
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Products: Semiconductor Materials * 4 categories: prime, epitaxial, test/monitor wafers and silicon- on-insulator (SOI) wafers. * Range from 100 millimeter to 300 millimeter * Starting materials for microprocessor, memory, logic and power devices. In turn, these semiconductor devices are used in computers, cellular phones and other mobile electronic devices Products: Solar Materials * Multicrystalline: primarily 156 millimeter silicon wafers * Manufacture and sell monocrystalline wafers through the acquisition of Solaicx. * Starting material for crystalline solar cells which could be further used to make solar panels Data Source: 10-K, http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/945436/000119312511042346/d10k.htm
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Products: SunEdison * Provides solar energy services that integrate the design, installation, financing, monitoring, operations and maintenance of PV solar energy system * Compete on the basis of the price of electricity to consumers * Heavily dependent upon government subsidies, e.g. federal incentive tax credits, state- sponsored energy credits and foreign feed-in tariffs Data Source: 10-K, http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/945436/000119312511042346/d10k.htm
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Revenue Breakdown- By Geography Data Source: 10-K, Q1, Q2 Earning call conference; www.sec.gov Revenue Breakdown- By Business Net Sales Q2-2011Q1-201120102010(%) Dollars in millions Semiconductor Materials$275.3$251.5$992.6044.3% Solar Materials$323.1$326.3$826.1036.9% Solar Energy$181.2$254.8$420.5018.8% Total Net Sales % of 2010: 34.8%37.2% $2,239.20 Net Sales 2010 Dollars in millions North America$250.0011.2% Asia Pacific$1,338.0059.8% Europe$651.0029.1% Total Net Sales$2,239.00
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Last 3 Years Price Index Data Source: 10-K; Bloomberg * Wafer Price Index has dropped more than 50% in the past three years * MEMC stock price dropped more 50% * Price Index: BNEF survey on 6 inch Multicrystalline Silicon Wafer Average Price Business Strategy ONE: M & A History 2009: SunEdison Downstream leadership in solar project development 2010: Solaicx Enter monocrystalline for solar market 2011: FRV US Subsidiary Increase solar energy projects and pipelines
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Business Strategy TWO: Operation Locations Data Source: MEMC.Inc Website * Cost Reduction: In the process of transferring semiconductor wafer manufacturing to our new facility in Malaysia. Will continue to invest to expand production capacity in South Korean to Lower Cost * Better Customer Service: Global Operation, Closer to Costumers
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SWOT Analysis OPPORTUNITIES THREAT STRENGTH WEAKNESS SWOTS * Synergy Effect: downstream Supply Chain Integration, from material business to solar energy business * Leading market positions in its businesses, more than 50 yrs material business history, North America's largest solar energy services provider * SunEdison business is seasonal, and heavily dependent upon government subsidies * Higher cost of manufacturing than its Asia competitors * Difficult to distinguish itself from competitors * Bright future in solar energy business as a whole * Government support for renewable energy industry * Strong Pipeline growth in SunEdison * An excess supply of polysilicon wafer * Price Competition from lower cost manufacturing countries
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Source: Department of Commerce and Federal Reserve Effect of American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 U.S. GDP FORECAST (2009-2019)
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* Industry : -4.8% from 2006-2011 * Production outsourcing, price decline (shrink of demand and global economy weaken) and recession deterred revenue and industry growth * 80% of revenue comes from export SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY Source:http://clients.ibisworld.com/industryus/default.aspx?indid=752
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Source: http://www.isuppli.com/Semiconductor-Value-Chain/News/Pages/The-Die-Hard-Semiconductor-Market-IHS-iSuppli-Slightly-Raises-2011-Chip-Forecast.aspx GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR GROWTH FORECAST
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* Average price still continue to decline but investment in R&D will encourage growth (Recent innovation: carbon nanotubes) SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY Source:http://clients.ibisworld.com/industryus/default.aspx?indid=752
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* Industry :15.9% from 2006-2011 * The federal investment tax credit (ITC) has spurred significant investment in solar generation plants over the past five years * Solar energy account for 0.02% of total electricity generation in the U.S. SOLAR POWER INDUSTRY Source:http://clients.ibisworld.com/industryus/default.aspx?indid=1914
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* Concentrating solar power (CSP) is a technology that uses mirrors to focus sunlight on a particular surface to create electricity * CSP has higher energy efficiency than Photovoltaic * Large-scale deployment of this technology is anticipated during the next five years A parabolic trough CSP CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER
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* Beyond 2012, government legislation is uncertain, depends on new congress * Housing crisis and tough economic conditions cause reduction in electricity power. SOLAR POWER INDUSTRY
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* The solar panel can be used as a component of a larger photovoltaic system * Most solar modules are currently produced from either monocryatalline or multicrystalline * The high cost solar photovoltaics and its weather dependency have restricted its use in the United States A photovoltaic solar panel PHOTOVOLTAIC SOLAR PANEL
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* Industry : 34.8% from 2006-2011 * Falling silicon prices (a vast oversupply during recession), growth in demand and government incentives are major factors for high growth * The RPS (Renewable portfolio standards) stipulate certain States must generate a percentage of their total energy from renewable energy SOLAR MATERIAL INDUSTRY Source:http://clients.ibisworld.com/industryus/default.aspx?indid=754
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* Higher steaming coal price will have positive affect on solar panel demand. * Heavy price competition among global players * Increased R&D costs will weigh on profit as US firms try to compete with low-cost producers SOLAR MATERIAL INDUSTRY
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Semiconductor Materials * Shin−Etsu Handotai : Silicon wafers and ingots for producing chips * Sumco: Silicon wafers for semiconductor devices and solar cells Solar Materials/Solar Energy * LDK Solar: Multi/monocrystalline solar cells and develop solar power projects * First Solar Inc. Solar modules (thin films) and provide integrated services for solar power system * Yingli Green : Photovoltaic products * Sun Tech : Photovoltaic products and offer photovoltaic systems integration services COMPETITORS Source: Yahoo Finance, MEMC 10K, CapitalIQ
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COMPETITORS CompanyR&D Cost (2009)Revenue($mm) MEMC Electronic3.50% 2,834.7 LDK Solar0.80% 2,862.28 Yingli Green2.50% 2,326.56 Sun Tech1.81% 3,396.43 First Solar3.78% 2,507.77 Shin-Etsu Handotai3.70% 2,449.76 Sumco Corporation3.50% 1,617.21 Source: Individual company annual report/10K, CapitalIQ
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Five Force Analysis Competitive Rivalry: High Buyer Power: High Excess Supply Supplier Power: Low Producer of starting materials for downstream Business Integration of Supply Chain Threat of Substitution: High Both material business and solar energy business compete on price Government Subsidiaries to other kind of renewable energy Technology innovation of materials Threat of new Entry: Medium High Capital Expenditure Bright Future of Solar Energy Industry Low customer loyalty Global competition on price and services Low differences in products
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Price Range for Optimistic Case: $8.66 - $10.91 ($9.69) Price Range for Best Guess: $5.32 - $6.76 ($5.98) Price Range for Down Side: $4.27 - $5.47 ($4.82)
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Price Range for Optimistic Case: $8.66 - $10.91 ($9.69) Price Range for Best Guess: $5.32 - $6.76 ($5.98) Price Range for Down Side: $4.27 - $5.47 ($4.82)
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* Valuation: $6.00/share * As of this morning @ $5.69 * Hold * Visibility within the solar industry is very poor * Would take a while to take off as it is still a pretty green industry
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