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Fundaments of demography
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Demography – introduction Demos + grafein Study of reproduction of population Population inhabitants in the specific area group of inhabitants with the same biological, cultural and social characteristics
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The history of demography 1662: John Graunt: The natural and political observations, death time table based on death time tables → modelling of the death of the London inhabitants 17th and 18th century – many theories, example: A. Smith: Labour requirement influents and determines state of population, Thomas Robert Malthus: population has an exponential growth, means of life support have linear growth
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The history of demography International statistical congres 1853 in Brussels (initiator L. Quetelet) the main topic of the congres: The first demographic congres 1927, Geneve, formation of International Union for the Scientific Study of Population
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Infancy of demography in czech countries 1897 Institute of antropology and demography – Charles university 1918 State statistical office, department of population statistics 1920 Charles University, Faculty of Science
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Demographic information sources Yearbooks Demographic yearbook, UN, since 1948 (http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/) demographic info about chosen countries of the world (not detailed) EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat) detailed demographic info about EU countries Czech statistical office (ČSÚ, http://www.czso.cz) very detailed info about czech inhabitants
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Demographic information sources Journals Population Index (USA, quarterly, since 1935) Population & Societé (France, monthly, since 1946) Demography (USA, quarterly, since 1964) Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft (GER, 4 publications per year, since 1975) Demografie (CZE, quarterly, since 1958)
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Demographic data Two types of data
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Population state Based on census of inhabitants or population census Census of inhabitants (collected only basic data – age, sex, occupation, etc.) Population census (big action, many personal characteristics, is done more precisely)
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Population state indicators Size of population (2 types): Size of population Mid-year state of population
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Population state indicators Average computation linear growth of inhabitants geometric growth of inhabitants continuous growth of inhabitants
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Population state indicators Density of population
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Population state indicators Population structure by sex share of men share of women index of masculinity index of feminity
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Population state indicators Structure of population by age biological generation I. 0 – 14 years II. 15 – 49 years III. 50 years and over dependency ratio – according BG
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Population state indicators economic generation I. 0 – 19 years (pre-productivity) II.15 – 49 years (productivity) III.50 and over (post-productivity) index of economic load weigthed index of economic load
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Population state indicators young dependency rate (green dependency) old dependency rate (grey dependency)
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Population state indicators Age pyramid progressive (I. BG > III. BG) stationary (I. BG ~ III. BG) regressive(I. BG < III. BG)
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Population state indicators Age pyramid
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Population state indicators – age pyramid
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Population state indicators Age of population life expectancy – average duration of life of the current newborn normal life expectancy – the most frequently age of death (mode of live duration) probability life expectancy – age, in which could live at least a half of population (median)
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Population movement indicators are directly related to reproduction of population Indicators: birth, death, marrage, divorce and moving register of natural change register of migration
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Demographic indicators Study of reproduction of population process of dying-cul process of reproduction process of migration
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Demographic indicators Basic indicators mortality – death ability fertility – ability of reproduction marriage – ability of making couples, which make possible a reproduction divorce – ability to cancel out of made couples migration – ability to move
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Demographic indicators Mortality death rate exposition – estimate of average of population – mid-year state of population Mid-year state of population is estimated 1.arithmetical average of first and last value in the time period 2.size of population in the centre of the interval
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Demographic indicators Specific indicators of mortality (by age, by sex etc.) suckling mortality – mortality up to 1 year of the suckling´s life suckling mortality quotient newborn mortality – mortality up to 28 days after childbirth newborn mortality quotient
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Demographic indicators letality rate specific rate of letality – by age
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Demographic indicators Natality natality rate fertility rate contingent – number of women in the fertility age (15 – 49 years)
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Demographic indicators specific rate of fertility – includes age of the women total fertility rate – average number of children, which are born to 1 woman, fertility is not changing, mortality up to 50 years is zero net rate of reproduction – number of girls, which are born to 1 women, fertility is not changing a mortality up to 50 years is also not changing crude rate of reproduction – number of girls, which are born to 1 women, fertility is not changing a mortality up to 50 years is zero
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Demographic indicators Newborn classification sex – index of masculinity and feminity vitality legitimate maturity – readiness to live in the real world full-term baby not full-term baby
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Demographic indicators Abortion crude rate of abortion specific rate of abortion – includes age of the women total rate of abortion – average number of abortions per life of the women, fertility and abortion rate is not changing and death rate up to 50 years is zero
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Demographic indicators Marriage a divorce crude marriage rate crude marriage rate – men crude marriage rate – women
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Demographic indicators specific marriage rate specific first marriage rate first marriage average age
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Demographic indicators crude divorce rate specific divorce rate specific divorce rates
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Demographic indicators Migration number of moved in (I) and moved out (E) migration balance total migration immigration intensity emigration intensity
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Demographic indicators relative migration balance total migration rate migration balance rate
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Demographic indicators Population increase natural population increase K = N – M natural increase rate total population increase T = N – M + S
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