1. Workshop on Population Projections 10-14 September 2012 Rabat, Morocco

2. Session 1: Introduction Introduction to the workshop. The need for and the utility of population projections Population projections for Africa: Background and challenges. Getting ready: Software, data, internet

3. Francophone Africa

5. Introduction to the workshop. Agenda of the workshop The workshop has 10 Sessions, most of which are presentations combined with hands-on exercises and interaction with the trainers and among participants. There will be time for participants to work on projects and exercises. There will be an evaluation of the workshop by participants at the last day of the workshop. 1.Session 1: Introduction 2.Session 2: Establishing the Base Population 3.Session 3: Background and First Steps 4.Session 4: Projecting the levels of mortality, fertility and migration 5.Session 5: Projecting the age patterns of mortality, fertility and migration 6.Session 6: Introduction to Population Projections 7.Session 7: Population projections for national populations 8.Session 8: Population projections for sub-national, sectoral or small populations 9.Session 10: Final Matters

6. The need for and the utility of population projections The future is unknowable…Why population projection? Who needs/uses population Projections? Producers of population projections

7. The future is unknowable…Why population projection? Planning for people’s needs Planning for education Planning for health system: Doctors, nurses, hospital beds Planning for old age: aging Planning for employment: demographic dividend Planning for infrastructure: Roads, Airports, Planning for housing: urbanization

8. But: We know some basic demographic trends Demographic processes are long-term Lasting impact of past and current changes Momentum No equilibrium yet There are profound changes going on in all countries of the world Demographic transition as guiding principle Countries move from high fertility and mortality to low fertility and mortality – still in progress in many developing countries

9. The demographic transition animated 1 %2 %3 %4 %0 % Growth rate

10. Transformation of age structures: => From pyramid to (almost) rectangle. => From young populations to older populations

11. World Population Ageing

12. Transformation of survival: => From early deaths to late deaths.

13. Changing survival

14. What population projections can reveal

15. Planning for Education Nigeria

16. Population growth rate

17. Aging

18. Urbanization

20. Who needs, who uses population Projections? Main users Governments (ministries of education, health, planning, etc) Regional and local governments Private sector (demand, supply)

21. Who needs, who uses Population Projections? NUMBER OF COUNTRIES THAT HAVE CONDUCTED NATIONAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS 54% 34% 67% 52% 80%

22. Producers of population projections Governments: NSO, other national institutions Regional organizations: EUROSTAT, CELADE (UN Regional Commission) International organizations: UNPD (WPP, WUP biennially) Others: Private Sector, international research institutions (IIASA)

23. Population projections for Africa: Background and challenges Challenges: Slow fertility transitions HIV/AIDS, neglected tropical diseases Urbanization Data

24. Slow fertility transitions

25. Population growth

26. Aging

27. Urbanization

31. Data The good news Censuses are regularly held in almost all countries in the world. The 2010 Round of Censuses has so far enumerated 88% of the world’s population in 184 censuses (As of 1 August 2012) http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/sources/census/2010_PHC/censusclockmore.htm

32. Data The bad news Vital registration is still a problem in most developing countries. Not just a challenge for professional statisticians, it is a challenge to human rights The scandal of invisibility: Little progress since the 1970s.

33. WHO region DeathsBirths 1965– 1974 1975– 1984 1985– 1994 1995– 2004 1965– 1974 1975– 1984 1985– 1994 1995– 2004 Africa24277795 Americas69666461585553 Eastern Mediterranean172115121251742 Europe6261928695949392 South-East Asia11111111 Western Pacific1211101312141318 Total2725282633312830 Source: Mahapatra et al. 2007, table 2 Percentage of population living in countries with complete civil registration systems Analysis: Vital registration

34. Surveys or Civil Registration?

35. Getting ready: Software, data, internet Software used in the workshop Textbooks, manuals Data sources Additional tools and data

36. Software used in the workshop – Projection software RUPEX v. 1.46 Spectrum 4.5 – Demographic analysis tools MORTPAK v. 4.2. PASEX – General software Excel, Word, PowerPoint etc.

37. Textbooks, manuals – Siegel, Swanson 2004 – Preston et al. 2000 – Arriaga (1994 and later) – United Nations Manuals – Software Manuals

38. US Census Bureau: Arriaga

39. Textbooks

40. Data sources – National data – United Nations data (UNSD, UNPD) – Other

41. UN Data sources: UNSD http://data.un.org/

42. UN Data sources: UNPD http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htmhttp://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/index.htm

43. Additional tools and data – Demographic software PADIS http://www.padis-int.org/index.php?c=main&a=view&id=130&lan=en Applied Demographic Toolbox http://www.demog.berkeley.edu/~eddieh/toolbox.html – Demographic data Human Mortality Database [www.mortality.org] Human Fertility Database [www.humanfertility.org/] Human Life-Table Database [www.lifetable.de/] INDEPTH [www.indepth-network.org/]