1. Making sense of the 2014 European Parliament elections Michiel van Hulten, Managing Director, VoteWatch Europe Eurocommerce, Brussels, 28 May 2014

2. 2 Our final prediction

3. 3 Provisional results 2009 2014

4. 4 Profit-loss account GroupNet gain/loss EPP61 S&D5 ALDE19 Greens/EFA5 ECR11 GUE/NGL7 EFD7

5. 5 Key characteristics Turnout stabilised at 43% after continuous decline since 1979 Numbers shift from the centre to the extremes (especially on the right) No fundamental change in left-right balance No longer one single dominant political group

6. 6 Group formation

7. 7 Balance of power - EPP FR, IT, ES down DE, PL, CZ up DE remains largest

8. 8 Balance of power – S&D CZ, GR, HU, PL down DE, IT, RO, UK up IT largest

9. 9 Balance of power - ALDE DE, UK down HR, CZ, DK, ET, FI, FR, GR, HU, LI, NL, SK, ES up ES largest

10. 10 Key post-election steps Nomination of Commission President Formation of EP political groups Election of EP political group leaders Election of EP President and V-Ps Election of Committee Chairs Election of Commission President Nomination of new Commissioners, hearing, confirmation vote

11. 11 Policy impact Less support for strengthening EU and EP powers No centre-left or centre-right majority, but attendance could have big impact Probably no far right group, but lots of far right MEPs Hemicycle arithmetic forces mainstream parties to work together Majorities more volatile

12. 12 Old EPNew EPDifference EPP + S&D + ALDE 72.263.6-8.5 EPP + S&D 61.454.7-6.7 Old EPNew EPDifference EFD + NI + EAF 8.413.6+5.2 ECR + EFD + EAF + NI 15.820.6+4.8 (ECR + EFD + EAF + NI) + GUE 20.427.6+7.2 PRO-EU ANTI-EU Possible coalitions (%)

13. 13 Centre-right Centre-left Old EPNew EPDifference EPP+ALDE 46.638.4-8.2-8.2 EPP+ALDE+ECR 54.046.946.9-7.1 Old EPNew EPDifference S&D + G/EFA + GUE-NGL 37.639.639.6+2.0 (S&D + G/EFA + GUE-NGL) + ALDE 48.448.548.5+0.1 Possible coalitions (%)

14. 14 Economy Less support for austerity More calls for public spending Push for tax harmonisation? More regulation of the financial sector Policy impact

15. 15 Trade and internal market Lengthier and more difficult negotiations on TTIP Greater resistance to strengthening the internal market for services Policy impact

16. 16 Energy Nuclear power will continue to be seen as playing a key role Shale gas and oil exploration – EP majority likely positive Support for pan-EU energy infrastructure Policy impact

17. Michiel van Hulten, Managing Director michiel@votewatcheurope.eu michiel@votewatcheurope.eu www.votewatch.eu @VoteWatchEurope /VoteWatchEurope