1. EIONET 2005andrej.kobe@cec.eu.int Clean Air for Europe programme The Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution Directive on ambient air quality and cleaner air for Europe EIONET Workshop Vilnius, 17 to 18 October 2005 Andrej Kobe, Clean Air and Transport Unit DG Environment, European Commission

2. EIONET 2005andrej.kobe@cec.eu.int Thematic Strategy is a response to 6 th EAP (2002): Objectives for Air Pollution ‘achieving levels of air quality that do not give rise to significant negative impacts on and risks to human health and the environment’; (Art 7.1. of 6th EAP) ‘achieving levels of air quality that do not give rise to significant negative impacts on and risks to human health and the environment’; (Art 7.1. of 6th EAP) Towards a Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (2001) Integrated approach; consistency with other environmental policies, exploit synergies. Integrated approach; consistency with other environmental policies, exploit synergies. Cost-effectiveness to reach environment and health objectives Cost-effectiveness to reach environment and health objectives Knowledge-based approach Knowledge-based approach

3. EIONET 2005andrej.kobe@cec.eu.int Modelling Framework RAINS PRIMES (Partial Equilibrium on Energy Market) Activity in Agriculture and other sectors GDP, Demographic assumptions Activity Emission Factors Emissions Air Quality, regional and urban background Impact Target Setting Policy Options Cost-Benefits Analysis GEM E-3 (General Equilibrium Model) Energy Scenarios EMEP (Source- response relationships) Macro-economic & Competitiveness Impact

4. EIONET 2005andrej.kobe@cec.eu.int What did WHO « Systematic review » advice? Response to CAFE questions, inter alia l Main health effects of air pollution ranging from mild effects to death l Vulnerable groups have higher risk l Risks also at low levels of PM and ozone l The EU limit values do not provide complete health protection l PM2.5 is giving the most serious health effects, but also the “coarse fraction” is relevant l Long term PM exposure is the main concern l Ozone give strong health effects, morbidity and mortality l The AQ standard for nitrogen dioxide should be kept

5. EIONET 2005andrej.kobe@cec.eu.int Fine particles Even if situation improves by 2020: 2.5 million life years or 272,000 premature deaths if nothing is done. Source: Clean Air for Europe Programme (2005) Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 Calculations for 1997 meteorology

6. EIONET 2005andrej.kobe@cec.eu.int PM dominates Health effects l PM m Annual 2.5 million years of life lost or 250000 deaths + 500 infant deaths m 60000 (serious) hospital admissions, 23 million respiratory medication use days, and 200 million restricted activity days l Ozone m Annual impacts EU 25 ~ 20 000 deaths brought forward in year 2000 m 20 millions respiratory medication use days Value of health damage in 2020 (€ Millions) PM Mortality129,495 - 548,190 PM Morbidity54,072 Acute mortality from ozone 1,085- 2,435 Morbidity from ozone 4,197 Total Health damage 188,848 - 608,893

7. EIONET 2005andrej.kobe@cec.eu.int PM: Cost-effectiveness of the target setting approaches (including CITY DELTA)

8. EIONET 2005andrej.kobe@cec.eu.int Final set of policy options June 2005 Ambition level 2000Baseline 2020 Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C MTFR EU-wide cumulative years of life years lost (YOLL, million) 203137 (0%) 110 (65%) 104 (80%) 101 (87%) 96 (100%) Acidification (country- wise gap closure on cumulative excess deposition) 12030 (0%) 15 (55%) 11 (75%) 10 (85%) 2 (100%) Eutrophication (country-wise gap closure on cumulative excess deposition) 422266 (0%) 173 (55%) 138 (75%) 120 (85%) 87 (100%) Ozone (gap closure on SOMO35) cases of deaths brought forward 21,40020,800 (0%) 19,200 (60%) 18,600 (80%) 18,300 (90%) 17,759 (100%) [4][4]SOMO35 in parts per billion days

9. EIONET 2005andrej.kobe@cec.eu.int Loss in life expectancy attributable to exposure to fine particulate matter 2000

10. EIONET 2005andrej.kobe@cec.eu.int Loss in life expectancy attributable to exposure to fine particulate matter Strategy

11. EIONET 2005andrej.kobe@cec.eu.int Improvement of health & environment indicators following the Strategy (improvement relative to 2000)

12. EIONET 2005andrej.kobe@cec.eu.int Measures following the Strategy l Euro 5 for cars and vans l Euro 6 for Heavy Duty Engines l Revision of the NECD consistent with objectives identified in the Strategy l Small scale combustion m Review of IPPC directive for larger sources m Energy using Products directive for small sources l Ship NOx engine standards (IMO or Community) l Agriculture (NH 3 ) m N content of feedstuffs m Review of IPPC directive for intensive agriculture l Revise Air quality legislation

13. EIONET 2005andrej.kobe@cec.eu.int Air Quality Legislation (1) COM (2005) 447 final l Better Regulation m Merge AQ Framework Directive, EoI Decision, and 1 st - 3 rd Daughter directives m Tidy up inconsistencies m More flexibility for Member States m Improved, streamlined reporting

14. EIONET 2005andrej.kobe@cec.eu.int Air Quality Legislation (2) l Maintaining the present standards, PM10, O3, etc l Ambient AQS apply everywhere in the MS l Proposals for m Reduction average concentration for PM2.5.- 20 % 2010 - 2020 m « Concentration cap » for PM2.5 from 2010 m No further action if PM 2.5 concentration is below 7ug/m3 m Accounts for natural sources of pollution m Flexibility - allows MS to apply a time extension in meeting AQS up to five years if objective criteria are met m Regular review of experience and science

15. EIONET 2005andrej.kobe@cec.eu.int Air Quality Legislation (3) Reporting EEA with its ETC plays key role : air data centreEEA with its ETC plays key role : air data centre Common description of relevant informationCommon description of relevant information Subset electronically uploaded to Reportnet/CDR :Subset electronically uploaded to Reportnet/CDR : Zones Name, pollutant, type, delimitation AQ monitoring information raw data + metadata AQ assessment information Principally geo-data on concentrations throughout territory Bigger picture :Bigger picture : INSPIRE, Shared Information System Near real time exchange : better forecasting, model improvement

16. EIONET 2005andrej.kobe@cec.eu.int CAFE and further work Follow research&other activities : l Air4EU, ESPREME, NORMAN, GMES etc. m Improved modelling, better assessment, emerging pollutants m GMES: should be supported by near-real-time data availability l FP7, research infrastructures m Better understanding of PM : what exactly is killing us? Service contracts l Analysis and design of air pollution monitoring (IUTA) m How is AQ monitoring made today and how should it be done to be health relevant? How is health outcome monitored and how should it be done? l Classification and representativeness of mon. stations (UBA) l Natural sources of air pollution (NATAIR and JRC) l Transport hot spots (ENTEC) m What is the population at risk close to transport infrastructure, AQ and noise l 2006 : support to implementation, Impl. Provisions, tools (EEA)

17. EIONET 2005andrej.kobe@cec.eu.int Final thoughts (1) l Air pollution is and will continue to be a real problem for health and environment m Need to act at EU level -- air pollution is transboundary l Ambitious but cost-effective proposals m Based on comprehensive Impact Assessment m Based on sound peer-reviewed science l Better Regulation m Streamlining legislation: 50% reduction in paper provisions m New approach to environmental policy r Flexibility r Reducing average background concentration of fine particulates

18. EIONET 2005andrej.kobe@cec.eu.int Final thoughts (2) l Implementation m Monitoring and assessment underpin effective abatement programmes l Future policy development m Reducing important uncertainties m Base data for incidence of various endpoints m Improved assessment tools - Urban environment, economy (health care costs, productivity losses) m Step wise improvement of policy instruments l http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/air/cafe/index.htm