1. American Think Tanks: An Introduction Junfu Zhang Public Policy Institute of California

2. Think Tank: A Definition Original meaning (1900-05): “brain” Current meaning (1955-60): a body of experts, as a research organization, providing advice and ideas on specific national or commercial problems (OED) My definition here: independent, private, non-partisan, non-profit research organizations, whose goal is to influence government policy making or implementation (500 TT in U.S.)

3. More on Definition Independent: excluding policy centers at universities Private: non-government, excluding CEA, CBO, LAO, etc. Non-partisan but not necessarily non-ideological Non-profit, excluding consulting firms such as MPR All about policy

4. A Brief History of American Think Tanks First generation: think tanks as policy research institutions Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (1910) Institute for Government Research (1916, Brookings) Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace (1919) Council on Foreign Relations (1921) American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (1943) Second generation: the emergence of government contractors RAND Corporation (1948) Hudson Institute (1961) Urban Institute (1968)

5. A Brief History (continued) The third generation: the rise of advocacy think tanks Center for Strategic and International Studies (1962) Heritage Foundation (1973) CATO Institute (1977) The fourth generation: legacy-based think tanks Carter Center (1984) Nixon Center for Peace and Freedom (1994)

6. Three Kinds of Think Tanks “University without students:” Quality academic research; focus on long-term impact; research fellow like professors Examples: Brookings, AEI, Carnegie Endowment Government contractors Funded by government department / agencies; address specific concerns of policy-makers Examples: RAND, Urban Institute Advocacy think tanks Research plus aggressive marketing; actively participate in policy debate Heritage, CATO

7. Political Orientation of Think Tanks Conservative, libertarian, centrist, liberal, progressive Right, center, left

8. University without Students: An Example Brookings Institution “The Brookings Institution is an independent, nonpartisan organization devoted to research, analysis, education, and publication focused on public policy issues in the areas of economics, foreign policy, and governance.” 3 Programs: economy, government, foreign policy; 6 policy centers Rigorous academic research Close relation with federal government

9. Government Contractor: An Example RAND Corporation Mission: “RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decision-making through research and analysis.” More than 1,600 full- and part-time employees, (85% research staff hold advanced degrees, with >65% having Ph.D's or M.D.'s. ) Research areas: Child Policy, Civil and Criminal Justice, Regional Studies, Drug Policy, Education, Health, Infrastructure, International Policy, National Security, Population & Aging, Science & Technology, Terrorism Glorious history in 1950s: Von Neumann, Dantzig, Nash, Shapley, Schelling, Arrow, etc.

10. Advocacy Think Tanks: An Example Heritage Foundation Mission: “formulate and promote conservative public policies based on the principles of free enterprise, limited government, individual freedom, traditional American values, and a strong national defense.” “The Foundation produces research and generates solutions consistent with its beliefs that are marketed to the Congress, the Executive Branch, the news media and others” “We are not afraid to begin our sentences with the words ‘We believe’ because we do believe ……”

11. Research at Think Tanks: Examples Nick Lardy (Brookings, IIE): China’s economy William Gale & Peter Orszag (Brookings): “The Economic Effects of Long-Term Fiscal Discipline” Michael Boskin (Hoover): Tax-deferred savings and the U.S. budget David Neumark (PPIC): Effects of living wages AnnaLee Saxenian (PPIC): Silicon Valley’s immigrant entrepreneurs

12. Research at Think Tanks: More Examples Elisa Eiseman (RAND): “Cloning Human Beings: Recent Scientific and Policy Development” Roland Sturm (RAND): The Health Risks of Obesity Sheila R. Zedlewski and Jennifer Holland (Urban): “Work Activities of Current Welfare Recipients” Daniel J. Mitchell et al (Heritage): “Pathway to Economic Growth and Tax Reform: Eliminating the Double Tax on Dividends”

13. Outlets of Think Tanks’ Works Books, journal articles Monographs, reports, occasional papers Short pieces of policy brief Op-ed pieces Other informal channels Conferences, panel discussions Policy training programs Media appearance

14. Funding Sources: Brookings (FY2002) Total Revenue: $40,678,000

15. Funding Sources: RAND (FY2002) Total Income: $186,808,000

16. Funding Sources: Heritage (FY2002) Total Income: $27,539,833

17. Idea Producer or Broker? Heritage Foundation Expenses, 2002 Brookings Institution Expenses, 2002 Research (40%) Educational Programs (21%) Media & Government Relations (20%) Fundraising (16%) Management & General (3%) Economic Studies (37%) Foreign Policy Studies (17%) Governance Studies (15%) CPPE (11%) Publications (10%) External Affairs (6%) Communications (4%)

18. Impact of Think Tanks National Journal’s list of 150 most influential 22 from think tanks Mass media (20), public interest groups (17), lobbyists (16), lawyers (15), academics (14), etc. Theories of political impact Elite theory Populist theory (“people are policy”)

19. The Revolving Door between Government and Think Tanks: Examples Three secretaries in the Clinton administration landed at Brookings Think tank alumnus in Bush administration Rice (HI), Chao (HF), Haass (BI), Perle (AEI) President’s economic advisors: Larry Lindsey (AEI), Glen Hubbard (AEI) Martin Baily (BI, IIE), Gene Sperling (BI), Laura Tyson (IIE), Robert Lawrence (BI, IIE), Joseph Stiglitz (BI) William Niskanen (Cato), { M. Boskin (HI), M. Feldstein (NBER) } Charles Schultz (BI), Arthur Okun (BI) Others: Alan Blinder (BI), Alice Rivlin(BI)

20. Citations of Think Tanks in Media Think TankPolitical Orientation Number of Media Citations 2002 Number of Media Citations 2001 % change 1Brookings Institutioncentrist4,3084,2412% 2Council on Foreign Relationscentrist2,5701,65755 3Heritage Foundationconservative2,3252,2553 4American Enterprise Instituteconservative1,8581,931-4 5Center for Strategic and International Studies conservative1,8241,6878 6Cato Institutecons/libertarian1,8142,538-29 7RAND Corporationcenter-right1,4031,23014 8Carnegie Endowmentcentrist1,1671,1710 9Economic Policy Instituteprogressive851891-4 10Family Research Councilconservative7261,183-39 11Urban Institutecenter-left6531,234-47 12National Bureau of Economic Research centrist6061,976-69 13Hudson Instituteconservative603885-32

21. Citations of Think Tanks in Media (continued) Think TankPolitical Orientation Number of Media Citations 2002 Number of Media Citations 2001 % change 14Center for Public Integrityprogressive58042935 15Manhattan Instituteconservative57345526 16Hoover Institutionconservative523585-11 17Washington Institute for Near East Policy center-right49240123 18Center on Budget and Policy Priorities progressive442558-21 19Public Policy Institute of California centrist44033930 20Milken Institutecentrist4364768 21Institute for International Economics centrist387390 22Freedom Forumcentrist354395-10 23Center for Defense Information progressive347571-39 24Institute for Policy Studiesprogressive331366-10 25Progressive Policy Institutecentrist284343-17

22. Citations of Think Tanks in Media (continued) Number of Media Citations by Ideology Number of Media Citations 20022001 Conservative or Right-Leaning 12,141 (47%)13,150 (47%) Centrist10,552 (41%)10,988 (39%) Progressive or Left- Leaning 3,204 (12%)4,049 (14%) Total25,89728,187

23. Determinants of Media Visibility Rich and Weaver (2000): Money buys visibility Washington, D.C.-based think tanks generate more media coverage Conservative think tanks are cited more often than liberal ones, but not after funding resources are controlled for Media biases: WT and WSJ more likely to cover conservative think tanks, and NYT covers centrist think tanks more often

24. Concluding Remarks “[T]he ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else.” (Keynes, 1936) Think tanks facilitate the dissemination of such ideas Think tanks in China