Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

UFSP 100 Weather Forecasting Ross A. Lazear. Why is forecasting the weather so difficult? Imagine a rotating sphere 8,000 miles in diameter -Has a bumpy.

Published byBetty Jones Modified over 9 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "UFSP 100 Weather Forecasting Ross A. Lazear. Why is forecasting the weather so difficult? Imagine a rotating sphere 8,000 miles in diameter -Has a bumpy."— Presentation transcript:

1 UFSP 100 Weather Forecasting Ross A. Lazear

2 Why is forecasting the weather so difficult? Imagine a rotating sphere 8,000 miles in diameter -Has a bumpy surface -Surrounded by 40-km deep mixture of different gases whose concentrations vary both spatially and over time -Heated, along with its gases, by a nuclear reactor 93,000,000 miles away Sphere is revolving around the nuclear reactor -Some locations are heated more during one part of the revolution than others Mixture of gases receives inputs from the surface below -Generally calmly; sometimes violently!

3 Why is forecasting the weather so difficult?

4 .....Now, imagine that after observing this gaseous mixture, you are expected to predict its state at multiple locations on the sphere one, two, or more days into the future. This is essentially the task encountered every day by a weather forecaster! Adapted from Ryan, 1982, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

5 Why the discrepancy? Forecasting is often extremely challenging! There are *many* forecasts made available to the public… *National Weather Service *The Weather Channel *AccuWeather *Wunderground *Your iPhone …etc…

6 *Nowcasting (Up to six hours) *Short/medium range (Up to 7-10 days) *Long range/intraseasonal/seasonal *Climate (IPCC) Types of Forecasts

7 *Nowcasting (Up to six hours) *Short/medium range (Up to 7-10 days) *Long range/intraseasonal/seasonal *Climate (IPCC) Types of Forecasts

8 When will the thunderstorm hit? When will the snow taper? When will the rain change to snow/sleet/freezing rain? Nowcasting

9 Radar Satellite Soundings Nowcasting Tools

10 Surface (airport) observations

11 *Nowcasting (Up to six hours) *Short/medium range (Up to 7-10 days) *Long range/intraseasonal/seasonal *Climate (IPCC) Types of Forecasts

12 Short/Medium Range Forecasting Computer models needed! Models use: -Current surface observations -Upper air observations -Previous forecast …and then…

13 Short/Medium Range Forecasting From MetEd / UCAR

14 Models GFS - 16 days, global, U.S.A. NAM - 84 hours, N. America, U.S.A. HRRR/Rapid Refresh, 18 hours, U.S.A. ECMWF - 10 days, global, U.K. UKMET - global, U.K. NOGAPS - global, U.S.A. (Navy) JMA - Japan CMC - Canada WRF - Multiple domains, also run locally at Albany!

15 *Nowcasting (Up to six hours) *Short/medium range (Up to 7-10 days) *Long range/intraseasonal/seasonal *Climate (IPCC) Types of Forecasts

16 Long Range/Intraseasonal/Seasonal Various global “signals” that help meteorologists forecast on longer time scales. -ENSO (El Niño/La Niña)

17 Long Range/Intraseasonal/Seasonal Also… -Lots of other complex atmospheric waves in the tropics… From Dr. Paul Roundy, UAlbany

18 Hurricane Sandy, October 2012

19

20

21

22 National Hurricane Center Forecast for Hurricane Sandy 5 PM EDT October 24, 2012

23 Evening of October 25, 2012

24 Other forecast challenges: Precipitation type! Forecast temperature profile for March 19, 2013 winter storm

25 ACTUAL temperature profile for March 19, 2013 winter storm... Close call for a heavy sleet storm! Other forecast challenges: Precipitation type!

Download ppt "UFSP 100 Weather Forecasting Ross A. Lazear. Why is forecasting the weather so difficult? Imagine a rotating sphere 8,000 miles in diameter -Has a bumpy."

Similar presentations

JMA Takayuki MATSUMURA (Forecast Department, JMA) C Asia Air Survey co., ltd New Forecast Technologies for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation 1.

JMA Takayuki MATSUMURA (Forecast Department, JMA) C Asia Air Survey co., ltd New Forecast Technologies for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation 1.
WEATHER Read each slide. Look at each picture. Answer each question.

WEATHER Read each slide. Look at each picture. Answer each question.
Earth’s Weather Patterns

Earth’s Weather Patterns
This is. Jeopardy Earth Science Air Masses FrontsStorms Tornadoes and Hurricanes Weather Forecasting Capture the Chapter r 200 400 600 800 Jeopardy.

This is. Jeopardy Earth Science Air Masses FrontsStorms Tornadoes and Hurricanes Weather Forecasting Capture the Chapter r Jeopardy.
2012: Hurricane Sandy 125 dead, 60+ billion dollars damage.

2012: Hurricane Sandy 125 dead, 60+ billion dollars damage.
Weather Forecasting and Prediction. Methods of Forecasting  Step 1 - Outside!  Step 2 - Satellite maps  Step 3 - Radar imagery  Step 4 - Surface and.

Weather Forecasting and Prediction. Methods of Forecasting  Step 1 - Outside!  Step 2 - Satellite maps  Step 3 - Radar imagery  Step 4 - Surface and.
Severe Weather.

Severe Weather.
AIR MASSES A large body of air (thousands of miles) Changes in weather are caused by movements of air masses As an air mass moves away, temp & humidity.

AIR MASSES A large body of air (thousands of miles) Changes in weather are caused by movements of air masses As an air mass moves away, temp & humidity.
Science Test Study Guide Weather Science Ch. 5 (Green)

Science Test Study Guide Weather Science Ch. 5 (Green)
Weather.

Weather.
Weather Forecasting - II. Review The forecasting of weather by high-speed computers is known as numerical weather prediction. Mathematical models that.

Weather Forecasting - II. Review The forecasting of weather by high-speed computers is known as numerical weather prediction. Mathematical models that.
Direct observations and measurements, weather maps, satellites, and radar 6.4.6: Predict weather conditions and patterns based upon weather data collected.

Direct observations and measurements, weather maps, satellites, and radar 6.4.6: Predict weather conditions and patterns based upon weather data collected.
UNDERSTANDING TYPHOONS

UNDERSTANDING TYPHOONS
Moonlight reflecting off ice crystals in cirrostratus clouds can cause a halo to appear around the moon. Such a halo often indicates that precipitation.

Moonlight reflecting off ice crystals in cirrostratus clouds can cause a halo to appear around the moon. Such a halo often indicates that precipitation.
NCEP Overview “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction.

NCEP Overview “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
Study Notes for 3-2 TEST. 1 The type of weather associated with an incoming _____ pressure system would be cloudy, chance of ______. low storms.

Study Notes for 3-2 TEST. 1 The type of weather associated with an incoming _____ pressure system would be cloudy, chance of ______. low storms.
Weather Patterns.

Weather Patterns.
Atmospheric Circulation. 1. Global Convection Currents Equator = warm  rising air Poles = cold  sinking air.

Atmospheric Circulation. 1. Global Convection Currents Equator = warm  rising air Poles = cold  sinking air.
Chapter 20.1 Air Masses and Weather. While You Read 20.1 What is an air mass and how does it typically gain its specific characteristics? An air mass.

Chapter 20.1 Air Masses and Weather. While You Read 20.1 What is an air mass and how does it typically gain its specific characteristics? An air mass.
Forecasting and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) NOWcasting Description of atmospheric models Specific Models Types of variables and how to determine.

Forecasting and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) NOWcasting Description of atmospheric models Specific Models Types of variables and how to determine.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google