1. Business & Tourism Sectoral Adaptation Plan Workshop Cardiff 18 May 2015

2. Climate Change Commission for Wales Brings together key sectors and organisations across Wales to build agreement on the action needed to tackle the challenges of climate change in Wales. Providing advice Mobilising Action Building consensus

3. Climate Change Commission for Wales Climate Change Commissioner appointed by Welsh Government CCCW members provide input voluntarily Cynnal Cymru provide secretariat Currently three sub-groups – Adaptation; Transport; Land Use

4. Welsh Government Climate Change Strategy Sectoral Adaptation Plans: Health Natural Environment Infrastructure Communities Business & Tourism

5. Today’s Workshop – Objective “To ensure that you are brought up to date on progress with climate adaptation, and are able to plan the necessary actions”

6. Today’s Workshop: Coverage Impact of climate change on business Identifying risks and opportunities for your business, using the BACLIAT tool Viewpoints and experience from PWC and CBI Sources of data and support Action planning – and identifying barriers to taking action Building the Business Case, using IEMA Guidance

7. Impact of Climate Change on Business Jim Poole

8. Talybont Ceredigion Aug 2012 St Asaph Nov 2012 Mid Wales Jun 2012 Flooding in Wales Talybont Ceredigion Aug 2012

9. Athena Picture Agency Paul Callan Aberystwyth Amroth Porthcawl Storms in January 2014

10. Rhyl December 2013

11. UKCP09 Projections for Wales More intense rainfall events More flooding of low-lying coastal areas Hotter, drier summers More extremely warm days Milder, wetter winters Less snowfall and frost Lower groundwater levels

12. St Mellons December 2010

14. Met Office Report March 2014 “New analysis suggests that we should also plan to be resilient to wet summers and to cold winters throughout this century” Confirms UKCP09 for underlying trends, but adds:

15. Average Temperatures during December in UK

16. As a first step, how well (or otherwise) we dealt with previous extreme events provides lessons on how we should adapt in the future

17. Summer Temperatures over Europe

18. For the longer term we must monitor climate-related trends and events, work out where we are heading and give ourselves time to adapt accordingly

19. UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2012 Business, Industry and Services Opportunity: Expansion of tourism Threats: Insurance exposure to flood risks Loss of staff time due to overheating buildings Mortgages threatened due to increased flood risk Tourism assets at risk of flooding Restrictions in water abstraction for industry Business disruption due to flooding Climate risks to investment funds Loss of productivity due to ICT disruption Supply chain disruption

20. EA Climate Ready – Impact of Severe Weather on Business 260,000 business units, employing 3.2 million people, currently vulnerable to flooding from rivers or the sea Total economic damage of 2012 floods estimated at £620 million 49% of managers report that severe weather conditions caused disruption to their organisation over the last year – the most common cause of disruption for the third year running (CMI, 2012) 64% of businesses have suffered supply chain disruption due to extreme weather conditions (Zurich) 70% of businesses believe that climate change has the potential to affect their revenue significantly (CDP)

21. EA Climate Ready – Opportunities for Business > 60% of businesses surveyed by UK TI considered climate change to be a commercial opportunity UK sales in the “Adaptation and Resilience to a Changing Climate” sector in 2011/12 were £2.1 billion – growth of 0.9% UK exports in this sector were valued at £266 million in 2011/12, an increase of 3.7% on 2010/11

22. EA Climate Ready – Survey of 1,200 FSB Members 60% did not have a plan in place to deal with severe weather 66% have suffered as a result of flooding, drought or snow in the last three years 29% did not have insurance for business interruption (loss of income, costs incurred) or for damage caused to property by flooding

23. EA Climate Ready – Key Messages for Business Businesses are counting the cost of today’s severe weather Flooding, droughts and heat-waves will be more common – not one off events You can manage the costs of severe weather like any other business risk Planning now for the impacts of severe weather makes good business sense If you are resilient to a changing climate you will be more attractive to investors Take advantage of changing conditions. Keep trading during severe weather. Retain customers – win new ones.

24. Impact of Climate Change on Business BACLIAT Workshop

25. BACLIAT Workshop: Business Areas Climate Impact Assessment Tool

26. BACLIAT Workshop – Objective “To draw upon your knowledge to brainstorm potential future impacts of climate change on businesses and tourism in Wales”

27. markets logistics process finance people premises Climate change provides both threats and benefits A generic framework for considering climate impacts on business areas: BACLIAT – Business Areas Climate Assessment Tool

28. Markets Changing demand for goods and services: tourism: Mediterranean is too hot, so visit UK instead food & drink: summer preferences, al fresco pavement cafes 24/7 leisure: demand for parks, gardens, heritage building design: passive cooling, sustainable construction technology: monitoring, flood protection, cooling equipment, health products etc. global impacts on markets or supply chains

29. Logistics Disruption of supply chains arising from: –transport disruption –impacts on suppliers Just in time systems increase vulnerability Disruption to power or water supply For smaller companies, supply chains and power supply represent a large proportion of their exposure to the climate risk. Summer 2005: BMW lost hours of production equating to 50 cars as a result of delays to deliveries following riverine flooding

30. Process Impacts on production processes and service delivery: some business processes, equipment, assets and activities are temperature sensitive: -food preparation and storage -some industrial processes, such as waterless printing -agriculture -IT server room extreme events can cause damage or disruption climate change could reduce / increase production efficiencies extreme events will set new performance standards

31. People Implications for employees and customers: poor or better working environment? -external: construction, agriculture -internal: offices in summer -more complaints generally reputation as employer -attract and retain high quality staff

32. Premises Impacts of wind, rain, storm, fire and subsidence on building fabric and structure or grounds Internal environment: less winter heating/ more summer cooling Design decisions based on historical climate data likely to be inadequate Retrofitting existing buildings represents a major challenge Sustainable construction needs to link climate change adaptation and mitigation agendas

33. Finance Insurance issues: increased premiums; variable premiums; vulnerable locations; uncertainty Investment issues: tests for future proofing of investment, global impacts on international investment Costs: impact on raw material prices; retrofitting existing buildings and equipment could be expensive

34. BACLIAT Workshop – Questions For each business area: What are the opportunities and challenges that your organisation will face in the future as a result of the changing climate? What things that have happened in the past could become more frequent with climate change? Thinking more imaginatively, what new impacts could occur?