1. Italy: the shopping market for Northern Europe? An outsider’s view of the Italian air cargo market 6 th Italian Air Cargo Market Conference Milan, July 8-9 2004

2. Marco Bloemen Marco Bloemen is YDL partner consultant and develop commercial themes such as revenue management, marketing and bsuinee planning, product development and new sales methods, especially for airlines and air cargo world. The slides represent a syntesis of a Marco Bloemen’s study presented at The Italian Air Cargo Market Conference. © Copyright by Italmondo Servizi ed Editoria srl and SteerCargo. No part of this publicatoin may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means.

3. The change in the BCI gives some advance indication for air export growth For imports there appears to be a paradigm shift: production outsourcing Business Confidence Index Flown Air Trade growth

4. Germany responsible for European air cargo growth, while Italy is nr. 2 export market Europe air exports per origin country from 1997-2003

5. Italy air exports > 2x imports Italy air trade from 1997-2003

6. Imports: China covers Asian growth to Italy Italian air imports from Northeast Asia from 1997-2003

7. Fashion goods: Italian imports Fashion Goods imports to Italy by airTop 4 countries of Fashion Goods imports to Italy by air Leather consumables imports to Italy by air Leather consumables imports to Italy by air for top 7 countries

8. Italy summer dip stronger than Germany, UK and even France Top 4 European country air trade tons per month from 2000-2003

9. Multiple airports have potential to serve Northern Italian catchment area Torino Genova Bergamo Verona Bologna Venezia Trieste Linate Malpensa          50kms 37’ 157kms 1’25’’ 46kms 35’ 98kms 50’’ 120kms 1’05’’ 123kms 1’20’’ 160kms 1’30’’ 116kms 1’05’’ 159kms 1’30’’ Source: Michelin  Treviso 29kms 30’’

10. Only 36% of traffic carried by Italian carriers 36% of international traffic flown by Italian carriers –Milan MXP 58%, –Rome FCO 23% –Bergamo 0% Asian carriers gaining ground –Direct freighter services: Cathay, EVA, Korean, NCA Alternative freighter capacity on the market: Ocean Airlines initiative Most of the Italian export cargo trucked Northbound Europe (estimated at 60%) Source: ENAC 2002

11. Relation economic indicators and air freight Air trade Commodity analysis Seasonality Traffic analysis Profile of air trade and traffic Position of the industry Summary and conclusions

12. top 5 share top 10 share 80% 0% 100%20% Italy Netherlands Austria France Germany UK Sweden Ireland Switzerland Spain Italian agent mix in relation to other European countries

13. Summary Air cargo growth leading most Italian economic indicators Italy is Europe’s 2 nd air export and 5 th air import market China becoming alternative production centre for fashion goods Italian summer holidays affect air cargo more severely than other European countries Majority of Italy’s air cargo is trucked outside of Italy and then flown from Northern European hubs Italian agent mix diverse and consolidates

14. Conclusions Business Confidence Index: 2004 and 2005 air cargo export and import growth expected Production and consumption patterns shifting: USA role decreasing and Asia gaining for both export and imports China may become Italy’s largest trading partner shortly Italian trading imbalances will remain, leading to gateway consolidations in Northern Europe Italy one of the last European markets for agent and multinational consolidation Opportunities are still significant for direct cargo flows from Italy