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Commercial Real Estate Outlook IRR-Viewpoint 2010.

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Presentation on theme: "Commercial Real Estate Outlook IRR-Viewpoint 2010."— Presentation transcript:

1 Commercial Real Estate Outlook IRR-Viewpoint 2010

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3 Industrial The Best, The Worst and The Local Market Top Three Markets By Vacancy… 1.Los Angeles, CA – 4.92% 2.Orange County, CA – 6.58% 3.Seattle, WA – 6.70% Local Market… 50. Charlotte, NC – 14.26% (3Q 2009);14.70% (1Q 2010-NA ) …and the Bottom Three Markets 54. Austin, TX – 18.40% 55. Boston, MA – 24.76% 56. Louisville, KY – 26.01%

4 Industrial Market Pricing

5 Industrial – Overall Capitalization Rates InstitutionalNoninstitutional National Flex 7.50 %-12.0% 9.38% - Average 100-400 basis points 250 or 11.88% - Average National Warehouse 7.00%-12.0% 8.60% - Average 100-300 basis points 225 or 10.85 % -Average Korpacz – Second Quarter 2010 –Investor Survey Realty Rates.com – Second Quarter 2010- Investor Survey Industrial - 9.59%

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7 Apartment The Best, The Worst and The Local Market Top Three Markets By Vacancy… 1.San Francisco, CA – 3.59% 2.Syracuse – 3.94% 3.New York City – 4.80% Local Market… 49. Charlotte – 11.64% (3Q–2009);13.6% (1Q 2010) …and the Bottom Three Markets 54. Phoenix – 12.97% 55. Naples/Ft. Myers – 13.37% 56. Providence – 14.11%

8 Apartment Market Pricing

9 Apartment – Overall Capitalization Rates InstitutionalNoninstitutional National Apartment 5.00 %-11.00% 7.68% - Average 0-400 basis points 161 or 9.29% - Average Korpacz – Second Quarter 2010 –Investor Survey Realty Rates.com – Second Quarter 2010- Investor Survey Retail – 9.50% Average

10 Office Market Cycle

11 Office – CBD The Best, The Worst and The Local Market Top Three Markets By Vacancy… 1.Charlotte, NC – 6.43% 2.Boise, ID – 8.10% 3.Memphis, TN – 8.70% Local Market… 1. Charlotte, NC – 6.43% (3Q–2009); 12.0% (1Q-2010) …and the Bottom Three Markets 54. San Jose, CA – 23.90% 55. Detroit, MI – 25.00% 56. Dayton, OH – 26.00%

12 Office – Suburban The Best, The Worst and The Local Market Top Three Markets By Vacancy… 1.Dayton, OH – 10.88% 2.Pittsburgh, PA – 11.09% 3.Los Angeles, CA – 11.30% Local Market… 41. Charlotte, NC – 19.07% (3Q–2009);19.77% (1Q–2010 ) …and the Bottom Three Markets 54. Detroit, MI – 23.89% 55. Phoenix, AZ – 27.41% 56. Hartford, CT – 29.45%

13 Office Market Pricing

14 Office – Overall Capitalization Rates InstitutionalNoninstitutional National CBD 6.00 %-10.50% 8.15% - AverageN/A Suburban 6.00%-12.00% 8.60% - Average 25-300 basis points 141 or 10.01 % -Average Korpacz – Second Quarter 2010 –Investor Survey Realty Rates.com – Second Quarter 2010- Investor Survey Office – 9.48% Average

15 Retail Market Cycle

16 Retail The Best, The Worst and The Local Market Top Three Markets By Vacancy… 1.San Francisco, CA – 3.08% 2.Los Angeles, CA – 4.87% 3.San Jose, CA – 5.03% Local Market… 12. Charlotte, NC – 6.77% (3Q–2009); 8.0% (4Q–2009) …and the Bottom Three Markets 54. Providence, RI – 17.00% 55. Dayton, OH – 17.30% 56. Detroit, MI – 17.35%

17 Retail Market Pricing

18 Retail – Overall Capitalization Rates InstitutionalNoninstitutional Regional Malls 5.00 %-10.50% 7.93% - Average 25-500 basis points 279 or 10.72% - Average Power Center 7.50%-10.00% 8.70% - AverageN/A Strip Center 7.00%-11.40% 8.38% - Average 50-1000 basis points 303 or 11.41%- Average Korpacz – Second Quarter 2010 –Investor Survey Realty Rates.com – Second Quarter 2010- Investor Survey Retail – 9.50% Average

19 Recent Development in Capitalization Rates Korpacz Survey data for investment grade property and our analysis are presented in the following table:

20 Recent Development in Capitalization Rates Korpacz Survey data for non-investment grade property and our analysis are presented in the following table:

21 Real Estate Listing Sources – For Sale & For Lease Loopnet http://www.loopnet.com/ Edis http://www.nccommerce.com/en/BusinessServices/LocateYourBusiness/BuildingsAndSites / (N.C. Department of Commerce Buildings & Sites EDIS) Mecklenburg County Real Estate Lookup http://meckcama.co.mecklenburg.nc.us/relookup/ (Market Analysis Link) National & Local Brokerage Firms –Apartment Realty Advisors http://www.arausa.com/Index.cfm http://www.arausa.com/Index.cfm –CB Richard Ellis (CBRE ) http://www.cbre.com/EN/Pages/default.aspx http://www.cbre.com/EN/Pages/default.aspx –Sperry Van Ness http://www.svn.com/ http://www.svn.com/ –Lincoln Harris CSG http://www.lincolnharris.com/Home/ http://www.lincolnharris.com/Home/ –The Stump Corporation http://www.stumpnet.com/ http://www.stumpnet.com/ –Marcus & Millichamp http://www.marcusmillichap.com/http://www.marcusmillichap.com/ –NAIGLOBAL http://www.naiglobal.com/http://www.naiglobal.com/

22 National Real Estate Surveys IRR.com (Viewpoint – Real Estate Value Trends) Marcus & Millchap.com NAIGLOBAL www.pwc.com (Korpacz Real Estate Investor Survey )www.pwc.com ACLI (American Council of Life Insurers) Realty Rates.com (Developer Surveys, Financial Indicators, Market Surveys, Investor Surveys)

23 Vacancy and Rental Rate Surveys - SUBSCRIPTION Karnes (Office, Retail and Industrial) Real Data (Apartments) REIS

24 Real Estate Sales - SUBSCRIPTION Costar REIS Real Capital Analytics http://www.rcanalytics.com/

25 Integra Realty Resources Nation’s Largest Valuation and Counseling Firm 59 Offices in 33 states, plus DC and Mexico Over 800 Consultants & Advisors 150+ MAIs company-wide


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