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Jorge G. Gonzalez Against All Odds The Mexican Economy
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Recent Economic and Political Events ► U.S. recession and recovery Exports to the U.S. Remittances from the U.S. Fluctuations in oil prices Decline in direct foreign investment
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Recent Economic and Political Events ► U.S. recession and recovery ► Export-led recession ► H1N1 Flu Virus ► Political gridlock ► Battle against organized crime
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Recent Economic and Political Events ► U.S. recession and recovery ► Export-led recession ► H1N1 Flu Virus ► Political gridlock ► Battle against organized crime ► Mexico – U.S. relationship
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The Mexican Economy ► North American business cycle
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Industrial Production Index (January 2000 = 100, January 2003 = 100) Source: Banco de México and FED www.banxico.org.mx; www.federalreserve.gov
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The Mexican Economy ► North American business cycle ► GDP growth
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Real GDP % yearly change (2003 Prices) Source: INEGI www.inegi.gob.mx
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The Mexican Economy ► North American business cycle ► GDP growth ► Foreign direct investment
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Foreign Direct Investment Billions of Dollars Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx DEM + NAFTA
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Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx Debt Market Foreign Investment Billions of Dollars
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Stock Market Foreign Investment Billions of Dollars Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx
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The Mexican Economy ► North American business cycle ► GDP growth ► Foreign direct investment ► Mexican Peso and foreign sector
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Exchange Rate Pesos per U.S. Dollar Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx
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Exchange Rate Pesos per U.S. Dollar Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx
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Inflation Differential vs. Exchange Rate Inflation Exchange Rate 344 266 Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx
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Merchandise Trade Billions of Dollars Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx Imports Exports
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Family Remittances Billions of Dollars Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx
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Family Remittances Billions of Dollars Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx
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The Mexican Economy ► North American business cycle ► GDP growth ► Foreign direct investment ► Mexican Peso and foreign sector ► Fiscal policy
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Government Balance Balance / GDP Source: SHCP www.shcp.gob.mx
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The Mexican Economy ► North American business cycle ► GDP growth ► Foreign direct investment ► Mexican Peso and foreign sector ► Fiscal policy ► Price stability
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Inflation Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx
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The Mexican Economy ► North American business cycle ► GDP growth ► Foreign direct investment ► Mexican Peso and foreign sector ► Fiscal policy ► Price stability
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► Rule of law ► Mexico – U.S. relationship ► War on poverty ► Energy sector and labor laws ► Domestic antitrust and competition ► Political Landscape PRI: Enrique Peña Nieto PRD: Marcelo Ebrard PAN: ? Current Challenges
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www.trinity.edu/jgonzal1 jorge.gonzalez@trinity.edu Against All Odds The Mexican Economy
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