1. Timeseries Analysis Examples: OS visits to UK Production index in Construction Input price index in agriculture

2. OS visits to UK Sequence plot Monthly data (1980-2012) from ons.gov.uk (Office for National Statistics UK) Overseas visitor A person who, being permanently resident in a country outside the UK, visits the UK for a period of less than 12 months. Number in thousands

3. OS visits to UK ARIMA (1,1,0)(0,0,0) Reveals if there is any autocorrelation in the residuals (suggesting that there is informationa that has not been accounted for in the model). The ideal for a sample ACF of residuals is that there aren’t any significant correlations for any lag. The black lines indicated bounds for statistical significance.

4. OS visits to UK Expert Modeler ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)

5. OS visits to UK Forecast vs Observed values

6. Production index in Construction Sequence plot Quarterly data (2000-2011) from statistics.gr Hellenic Statistic Authority The production index in construction in is a business- cycle indicator which measures the monthly changes in production of buildings and of civil engineering (roads, railways, bridges, tunnels, utility projects). Conceptually the index shows changes in the volume of construction, i.e. the price adjusted change in the value added to the economy by this sector. Base year 2005=100

7. Production index in Construction ARIMA (1,1,0)(0,0,0)

8. Production index in Construction Expert Modeler ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,0)

9. Production index in Construction

10. Input Price Index in Agriculture Sequence plot Monthly data (2000-2011) from statistics.gr Hellenic Statistic Authority Input prices include the cost of materials used plus operation costs of running the business The purpose of Agricultural Input Price Index is to follow the purchase prices of the means of agricultural production. Base year 2005=100

11. Input Price Index in Agriculture ARIMA (1,1,0)(0,0,0) No seasonality!

12. Input Price Index in Agriculture