1. N OV 2013 CALFIRE North Network BY: CDR Anton Orr (USN) Capt Ryan Colton (USMC) Capt Taylor Williams (USMC)

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3. Background 3 California Dept of Forestry and Fire Protection 2 regions North and South Region 21 HQ units within all of CAL FIRE 228 Fire Stations Area of Responsibility 31 million Acres 35 counties Budget $1.05 Billion Fire Suppression costs ~ $165 Million Average Yearly Responses Wildland Fires – above 5,600 Non-Wildland Fire Emergencies – more than 350,000

4. Background 4

5. Units Modeled Calfire Northern Region –21 Ground and Air Bases Air Assets - # / operational cost per hour Air Attack (OV-10 Bronco) : 6 / $1100 Air Tanker (S-2T): 10 / $2100 Helicopter w/Fire Crew (UH-1H) : 6 / $1750 5

6. Units Modeled Ground Assets: # / operational cost per hour: Engines: 190 / $80 Fire Crews: 85 / $85 BullDozers: 32 / $100 6

7. Most Likely Fire Locations 7 F1: Wildlake F2: Redding F3: Clearlake

8. Problem 8 Problem Statement Calfire has an expansive area of responsibility and a limited number of resources to deal with fires that arise within its AOR. What is the optimal way to utilize the resources that Calfire has, minimizing the operating costs and providing the service they are charged with delivering?

9. Road Node Map 9

10. Ground/Air Bases Map 10 GroundAir

11. Complete Fire Map 11

12. Nodes and Edges 12 Nodes (64 total): Ground Nodes - Fire houses Air Nodes - Fire airports Transportation Nodes - Major intersections throughout Northern California Fire Nodes - 3 highly probable areas within Nor Cal that will have wildfires Has 4 additional Fire locations within the model Edges (321 total) Air movement – Air Assets travel from Air Node direct to Fire Node Ground movement: Fire House Node -> Road Node (< 30 miles) Road Node -> Road Node (transit network) Road Node -> Fire Node (< 30 miles)

13. Abstract Network 13

14. Formulation 14

15. Measures of Effectiveness Primary –Cost to respond to fires Secondary –Number of fires Northern CAL FIRE is able to deal with 15

16. Model 16

17. Model Capabilities –Each asset is assigned fire fighting capability based on utility they bring to fight fires (proxy is gallons of water): Air Tanker: 1500 Air Assault: 100 Helo: 500 Crew: 10 Engine: 150 Dozer: 40 Fire Demand: –Each Fire has certain amount of capability that needs to be satisfied (demand) All of these are uniform R.V. between 2000 and 3000 units of capability 17

18. Model Minimum Asset Requirement –Based on typical response size –Units have a minimum required set of assets that have to respond to fire. –Result if no Min Asset Requirement = send cheapest asset always Not Realistic 18

19. Model Assumptions Can only utilize 6 types of commodities –Ground Crews (Crew) –Fire Engines (Engine) –Bulldozers (Dozer) –Helicopters (HC) –Fixed Wing Tanker (AT) –Fixed Wing FAC (AA) Have 3 probable locations where fires happen Min Req’d amount of asset assigned. Initialization Cost incurred once an asset is assigned to respond to a fire 19

20. Model Assumptions Model is run starting with 0 fires All assets are available to use at time of request Air commodities cannot travel on ground network Ground Commodities cannot travel on air network Each asset has their own specific amount of capabilities they bring to the fire regarding amount of utility they have fighting the fire. (ie plane vs human) 20

21. Model Output Optimization Model What is Optimal mix of commodities to utilize and what is the min cost? 21

22. Analysis(Optimal Output) 22 Optimal Commodity and locations for 1 Fire Air node = Grass Valley 1 Air Tanker Ground Node = Nevada-Yuba Unit 4 crews 2 Dozers 4 Engines Optimal Solution For 7 Fires: Total Air Assets: 1 Air Attack 7 Air Tankers 40 Crews 14 Dozers 40 Engines Number of FiresCost ($K) 0$ 0 1$ 42.2 2$ 96.0 3$ 147.2 4$ 193.6 5$ 239.5 6$ 296.3 7$ 361.7

23. Attacks Second Scenario What happens when weather affects flights ops? –How is cost affected? –How is capability affected? 23

24. Analysis (Attack-No Air Avail) 24 Number of FiresCostw/o Airpercentage 0$0.0 0 1$42.2$47.111.5% 2$96.0$105.09.4% 3$147.2$157.57.0% 4$193.6$205.56.2% 5$239.5$253.15.7% 6$296.3 7$361.7 Optimal solution for 1 Fire: Air Node = NA Ground Node = Nevada Unit 14 Engines 2 Dozers 5 Crews Sonoma unit 9 Crews

25. Attack - How many major wildfires can we fight? Increase Attack Size Increase R.V. for Fire Demand 25

26. Analysis (Attack- Increase Fire Demand) 26 Optimal Solution for 1 Fire: Demand: 10858 units Supplied: 12000 units Optimal Solution for 4 Fires: Demand: 49332 units Supplied: 30430 units How many more assets do I need to contain 4 Major Wildfires up to 100% -5 AT -5 HC -50 Crews, Dozers, Engines

27. Follow on Work 27 Utility of assets incorporated into MOEs Improve granularity of assets/transit edges –Add additional fire fighting units Restrictions on mobility of air assets Incorporate Southern Region and Reserves –If north is exhausted how can Southern region affect the fight?

28. Just to Remember 28

29. QUESTIONS? 29

30. Sources http://firefighterblog.com/files/2010/07/CAL_FIRE_logo_large.jpg http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/06/pictures/130605-powerhouse- wildfire-forestfire-california-photo/#/california-wildfire-powerhouse- firefighters_68142_600x450.jpg http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/06/pictures/130605-powerhouse- wildfire-forestfire-california-photo/#/california-wildfire-powerhouse- firefighters_68142_600x450.jpg http://www.theepochtimes.com/news_images/highres/2008-7-5- california_fires_81828250.jpg ( question photo)http://www.theepochtimes.com/news_images/highres/2008-7-5- california_fires_81828250.jpg http://www.sacbee.com/static/weblogs/photos/2008/10/016098.html (intro photo)http://www.sacbee.com/static/weblogs/photos/2008/10/016098.html 30