1. Benefit Cost Analysis For Intersection Driver Support Systems David Levinson & Xi Zou 2004

2. Benefit Cost Analysis: Affected Groups

3. Identify Relevant Technologies  Highway Engineering Countermeasures v Sight distance v Split Intersection v Roundabout v Right-turn Lanes v Left-turn Lanes v Channelization v Number of intersection legs v Intersection types v Approach Characteristics v Median v Alignment of approaches u Traffic Engineering Countermeasures v Type of Traffic Control v Posted Speed Limit v Lighting v Advanced Warning Signs

4. Framework of Benefit Cost Analysis The Base Case for the comparison is the existing safety countermeasures at unsignalized intersections. Two major alternative scenarios of development will be examined: 1.The combination of highway engineering countermeasures 2.The countermeasure developed in the IDS project.

5. Framework of Benefit Cost Analysis NPV: Net Present Value

6. Costs & Benefits to Service Provider, Users and Community CostsService ProvidersUsers Society/ Community Costs of Baseline Capital Costs (★)(★) Operating & Maintaining Costs Others (★)(★) Costs of Traditional Alternatives Capital Costs ★ Operating & Maintaining Costs ★ Other Costs (★)(★) Costs of ITS Alternative Capital Costs ★ Operating & Maintaining Costs ★ Other Costs (★)(★) Costs to Service Provider, Users and Community

7. Benefits Service Providers Users Society/ Community Cost Savings Operating and Maintaining Costs(☻) Fuel Consumption (☻)(☻) Vehicle Operation (☻)(☻) Safety Improvement Fatality and Injury ☻ (☻) Property Damage ☻ (☻) Mobility Reduction in Travel Time Delay (☻)(☻) Reduction in Travel Time Variability (☻)(☻) Improvement in Customer Satisfaction (☻)(☻) Environmental Improvement Vehicle Emissions (☻)(☻) Efficiency Increases in Arterial Throughput (☻)(☻) Others Enhanced Facility (☻)(☻) Other Induced Effects Benefit to Service Provider, Users and Community

8. Estimate Lifespan of Technology Major Components: 1.Computer systems: Industrial PC 2.Communication system: wire, fiber optic or wireless 3.Sensors: vRadar vLidar (Light Detection And Ranging) vVision: visible and infrared cameras 4.Display devices: vFor pole system, lights and poles are needed. vFor message signs, panel display devices and poles are needed. vFor beacon system, only beacons (installed with traffic signs) are needed. 5.Traffic signs 6.Power units

9. Estimate Lifespan of Technology Example: 1.Sensor system: vRadar (Major), 10 yrs vLidar (Minor) 10 yrs 2.Computing and communication system: vPC 5-10 yrs vWired communication 20 yrs vWireless 10yrs 3.Display: v2x2 LED panels 50,000 hrs 4.Traffic signs: v2 Stop signs with signage 20 yrs

10. Estimate Costs of Technology Example: u Display: 2 LED panels $5-8k u Traffic signs: 2 Stop signs $150 + $60 labor u Sensors & Communication: See Next Page u Maintenance costs: u Power consumption:

11. Reference Shankwitz 2004

12. Estimate Benefits of Countermeasures Recommended Standard Values in FY 2004, Mn/DOT Discount Rate3.5% Auto Time Value$10.04 per person per hour Truck Driver Time Value$18.61 per person per hour Auto Variable Operating Cost$ 0.28 per mile Truck Variable Operating Cost$ 1.45 per mile

13. Estimate Benefits of Countermeasures: Travel Time Savings Traffic on Highway 52 near the intersection of TH 52 and MN CSAH9 in Goodhue County: Average Annual Daily Traffic: 25700 Heavy Commercial Traffic: 2850 Source: State of Minnesota 2002 Truck Highway Traffic Volume Map, Office of Transportation Data and Analysis, Mn/DOT Need to know: Time saving (if existing) in hours (obtained from data collection and simulation)

14. Estimate Benefits of Countermeasures  Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) is an anatomically based system that classifies individual injuries by body region on a six point ordinal scale of risk to life.  The maximum AIS (MAIS) is the highest single AIS code for an occupant with multiple injuries.

15. Estimate Benefits of Countermeasures u Value of life $ 3,000,000 (FHWA DOT, Sept. 2003) u Costs of injuries (2000 Dollars, NHTSA): v PDO: $ 2,532 $ 2,256 v MAIS 0: $ 1,962$ 1,748 v MAIS 1: $ 15,017$ 13,383 v MAIS 2: $ 157,958$ 140,766 v MAIS 3: $ 314,204$ 280,007 v MAIS 4: $ 731,580$ 651,957 v MAIS 5: $ 2,402,997$ 2,141,462  Fatal: $ 3,366,388$ 3,000,000

16. Estimate Benefits of Countermeasures: Crash Savings u At the intersection of TH 52 and CSAH 9, 23 accidents are in the police report from 01/01/2000 to 12/31/2002. The severities of these accidents are: v 1 A level ($ 260,000, Mn/DOT) v 10 B level ($ 56,000, Mn/DOT) v 6 C level ($ 27,000, Mn/DOT) v 6 N level ($ 4,000, Mn/DOT) Total cost is $ 1,006,000 (1997 Dollar) or $1,156,900 (Current Dollar) Or ranges from $2,083,641 to $ 5,035,366 (2003, FHWA DOT ) u Social benefits: Life and property savings by reducing crashes.  Need to know: reduction in the number of crashes and reduction in the severity of crashes.

17. Estimate Benefits of Countermeasures: Remaining Value u Recommended Remaining Capital Value factors for Use in Economic Analysis in FY 2004 (Ref. 2) u Expected Life (yrs) (Ref. 2) Expected Life (yrs) 25303540 20 Years0.300.490.620.70 25 Years0.00.270.450.58 Preliminary Engineering0 Right of Way100 Major Structures60 Grading and Drainage50 Sub-Base and Base40 Surface25

18. Questions ?

19. Inflation of Dollars u 2003 Dollar v $ 1.1462 1997 Dollar u Current Dollar v $1.151997 Dollar u Source: v http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/HistoricalInflation.aspx http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/HistoricalInflation.aspx 199819992000200120022003 1.55%2.19%3.38%2.83%1.59%2.27%

20. Values Used in Benefit Calculation (Miller) Comprehensive Costs by Severity of Accident Accident SeverityCost Per PersonCost Per Crash K-Fatal$2,392,742$2,722,548 A-Incapacitating$169,506$228,568 B-Evident$33,227$48,333 C-Possible$17,029$25,288 O-Property Damage$1,734$4,489 Unreported$1,601$4,144 A-B-C reported nonfatal$46,355$69,592 K-A-B-C reported injury$77,153$115,767 Source: Miller 1991 (p39)Note: assuming 1988 dollars and 4% discount rate

21. Subtasks u C1: Identify relevant technologies, Review of Literature. u C2: Develop Benefit Cost Framework. u C3: Estimate Lifespan of Technology. u C4: Estimate Costs of technology. u C5: Estimate Benefits of Countermeasures. u C6: Lifecycle Analysis. u C7: Recommend Countermeasures. u C8: Analyze Inter- technology Effects. u C9: Determine Performance Metrics. u C10: Develop cost:performance models. u C11: Analyze Synergies. u C12: Optimize Counter- measure Combination.

22. Benefit Cost Analysis: Concept A benefit/cost analysis evaluates the advantages (benefits) and disadvantages (costs) of transportation investment alternatives by comparing their benefit-cost ratio. Major Benefits: Reducing likelihood of crashes, reducing travel time, and vehicle operating costs. Major Costs: Initial capital investment and maintenance costs.

23. Task 3: Estimate Lifespan of Technology Major References: v FHWA (2004) Equipment Costs for Roadside Detection (RS-D), ITS Benefits and Costs Database. v FHWA (1996) National ITS Architecture Cost Analysis, prepared by the Architecture Development Team.

24. Task 4: Estimate Costs of Technology Major Reference: 1. National ITS Architecture Cost Analysis (FHWA, 1996), prepared by the Architecture Development Team. The costs of ITS elements in this document are based primarily on the unit costs in:  The National ITS Architecture Cost Analysis (FHWA 1996) and  The ITS Deployment Analysis System (IDAS) equipment list. IDAS is software developed by the Federal Highway Administration for ITS planning and cost/benefit analysis. 2. Quotation No. 1251 by Shane Electric, Inc. to University of Minnesota on Highway 52 Project. 3. Abby McKenzie, Benefit /Cost Analysis for Transportation Projects (per Minnesota Laws 2001, Chapter 10, Article 2, Section 41), Mn/DOT office of Investment Management Statewide Planning and Analysis.

25. Task 5: Estimate Benefits of Countermeasures Major Reference : Abby McKenzie, Benefit /Cost Analysis for Transportation Projects (per Minnesota Laws 2001, Chapter 10, Article 2, Section 41), Mn/DOT office of Investment Management Statewide Planning and Analysis.

26. Task 6: Lifecycle Analysis Major Reference: Lockheed Martin Federal Systems, Odetics Intelligent Transportation Systems Division (1997), ITS Cost Analysis, prepared for FHWA, DOT.

27. Ongoing Tasks u C7: Recommend Countermeasures. u C8: Analyze Inter-technology Effects. u C9: Determine Performance Metrics. u C10: Develop cost:performance models. u C11: Analyze Synergies. u C12: Optimize Countermeasure Combination.

28. Task 4: Estimate Costs of Technology Itemized Costs of Highway 52 Project  Annualized Cost Assumed Service Life20 Years Annual Capital Recovery Costx Powerx Communicationx Maintenancex Total Annual Costx