1. Key Issue 2-4 Why Might the World Face an Overpopulation Problem?

2. Thomas Malthus (1766– 1834) –An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798 –Population increases geometrically –Food production increases arithmetically –Eventually, population will exceed the capability to produces the food to support it Thomas Malthus

3. Malthus’ Theory

4. Globally, Malthus’s theory has not been supported during the past 50 years. –World food production has increased faster than the NIR. Food production increased more rapidly than predicted –Hunger and famine are distribution problems and not production problems. Population did not quadruple. –Cultural, economic, and technological change has slowed population growth. – Population is increasing a slower rate Malthus’ theory

5. Food & Population, 1950-2000 Malthus vs. Actual Trends

6. Contemporary Malthus supporters observe that today: –Relatively poor countries have experienced the most rapid population growth. Little wealth in these countries to support growth –World population growth is outstripping many global resources. Will result in war and other civil violence Neo-Malthusians

7. Malthus’ Critics –Argue a larger population could stimulate economic growth, food production, and technological development. –Unjust social practices are to blame, not lack of resources. –Some argue that high population growth leads to greater political and economic power. Malthus’ Critics

8. Thomas MalthusNeo-MalthusiansCritics of Malthus  Population is growing faster than Earth’s food supply  Population increased geometrically; food supply increased arithmetically Transfer of medical technology leads to a rapid increase in population in poor countries World population is outstripping a wide variety of resources Wars and civil violence will increase because of scarcity of food and other resources Large populations stimulate economic growth Poverty, hunger, and other social welfare problems are a result of unjust social and economic institutions

9. Reasons for declining birth rates What are the two ways to bring birth rates down? – Lower birth rates – Higher death rates What two strategies have proven successful to lower birth rates? – Reliance on economic development – Distribution of contraceptives

10. Crude Birth Rate Decline, 1980-2005

11. Improvement of economic conditions is key. –Wealthier communities have more to spend on education and health care. –More educated women have greater economic control over their lives. –More educated women better understand their reproductive rights, make more informed choices, and select more effective contraception. –Better health care leads to lower IMRs. –Lower IMRs lead to higher likelihood of contraception use. Lowering birth rates through education and health care

12. Rapidly, cheaply, and widely distributed contraception –A more rapid method than economic development –Family-planning programs can be used as well. Lowering birth rates through contraception

13. © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. FUTURE POPULATION GROWTH World population will still increase, but at a slower rate than in the past and fertility is the primary determinant.

14. Problematic regions Bangladesh –Low levels of wealth and literacy Africa –Economics, religion, and low levels of education limit contraception use. Southwestern Asia –Low status of women limits contraception use. –Women have less access to education and hold fewer legal rights as compared to men. –Large families—male symbol of virility

15. Cornucopians 1980s American Economists believe – Population growth is a stimulus to development – Technology has increased the carrying capacity Boserup Thesis – – Population increases necessitate increased inputs of labor and technology to compensate for reduced yields

16. Anti-Natalist vs Pro-Natalist Government policy that prevents an increase in child births Malthus & Neo- Malthusians Encourage family planning Overpopulation is a problem Government policy that enforces/encourages child birth through rewards/incentives Cornucopians & Boserup Human ingenuity & technology will increase carrying capacity Overpopulation is not a problem

17. Use of Family Planning

18. © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. FAMILY PLANNING METHODS

19. Government Population Policies Expansive Population Policies - Encourages population growth. Eugenic Population Policies - Favors one racial or cultural sector over others. Restrictive Population Policies - range from toleration of unapproved birth control to outright prohibition of large families.

20. Which is the bigger problem? It depends on the country?

21. Restrictive Policies Aka Anti-natalists – encourage family planning (birth control) China (starting 1971) Bolivia Vietnam Ethiopia Singapore Malaysia Bangladesh – TFR: 1981 – 6, 2000 – 2.9 Thailand – TFR: 1969 – 6.5, 2005 – 1.7

22. Expansive Policies Also known as pro-natalists – encourage large families – Nazi Germany – Soviet Union – Mao ’ s China – Ceausescu ’ s Romania – People ’ s Republic of Albania – Bulgaria – Mongolia Some countries awarding medals for Mothers of 4, or 5, or 10, etc.

23. Expansive Policies Russia – – Sept. 12 Conception Day in Ulyanovsk Province Sweden – – 1980s – couples with small children received tax incentives, job leaves, work flexibility for 8 years – Early 1990s – mini baby boom – However, in mid-1990s the economy slowed and so did the baby boom

24. Expansive Population Policies USSR - Starting on July 8, 1944 the government of the U.S.S.R. began awarding medals to women in order to encourage a high fertility rate.

25. Motherhood Medal 2nd Class 5 children 8,000,000 awarded

26. Motherhood Medal 1st Class 6 children 4,000,000 awarded

27. Order of Maternal Glory 3rd Class 7 children 2,000,000 awarded

28. Order of Maternal Glory 2nd Class 8 children 1,000,000 awarded

29. Order of Maternal Glory 1st Class 9 children 500,000 awarded

30. Order Mother Heroine 10 children 200,000 awarded

31. Eugenics Population Control Eugenics: "applied science or the bio-social movement which advocates the use of practices aimed at improving the genetic composition of a population” Germany - focused on "Aryanizing" German blood, preventing marriage or any sexual contact between Christians and Jews & formalized the killing of those deemed "lives unworthy of living," targeting first children and later adults with mental and/or physical disabilities United States- Practiced involuntary sterilization of those who were “genetically inferior” (genetic illnesses, insanity, etc) and restricted “White” people from marrying or having children with “Non-White” people. India's Hindu extremist party, the VHP, has asked the government to enforce family planning measures on the Muslim population, saying its rapid increase is "detrimental" to Hindus in the country. In the 1970s and 1980s the government of Czechoslovakia sponsored a policy that strove to reduce the nation's Romani population through involuntary sterilization

32. India and China These two countries comprise more than one-third of the world’s population. India’s population policies –Beginning in 1971, citizens paid to be sterilized –Now a stronger emphasis on education as family planning –Limited success © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Restrictive Population Policies

33. India Wait until the 1st child is 3 before having your 2nd

34. India and China China’s population policies –Beginning in 1980, one-child policy –Financial and other incentives to limit family size –Greater prosperity in China has led to a relaxation of one-child policy –Now a stronger emphasis on education as family planning Family-planning fees

35. China’s Population Programs  Later, Longer, Fewer (wan xi shao) 1971  get married later in life (mid - late twenties)  wait longer for first baby and in between babieshave fewer, 2 in urban areas & 3 in rural areas  One Child Policy 1979  rewards start once 1 child contract is signed  Rewards free medical care free daycare and schooling guaranteed job for child bonuses for parents extra maternity leave better housing bigger old age pension  Penalties must repay financial benefits educational, medical benefits, & guaranteed jobs are withdrawn parents’ wages reduced

36. 80,000 Family Planning Workers Practice birth control for the revolution source: http://www.iisg.nl/~landsberger/pop1.html

37. Peer pressure is also effectively used to keep birth rates down

38. Millions of dollars have been spent on education and on advertizing.

40. Carry out family planning Implement the basic national policy source: http://www.iisg.nl/~landsberger/pop.html

41. Clever and pretty healthy and lovely source: http://www.iisg.nl/~landsberger/pop.html

44. Do a good job in family planning to promote economic development source: http://www.iisg.nl/~landsberger/pop.html

46. The Science of Family Planning source: http://www.iisg.nl/~landsberger/pop.html

47. How many missing girls are there in the under 20 categories?

48. Epidemiological Transition

50. Four Stages of Epidemiological Transition 1st Stage: Pestilence and Famine- This stage prevailed throughout most of human history. It's characterized by extremely high death rates that vacillated between peaks and troughs in response to epidemics, famines, and war. Birth rates were high and fairly stable Death rates were equally high and kept population growth minimal.

51. Four Stages of Epidemiological Transition 2nd Stage: Receding pandemics- This era (Late 19th century in Europe and America) was a combination of factors including better sanitation, nutrition, and vaccines and medical advances, allowing some human control over the previous parasitic disease. This is when rapid population growth, a new phase of demographic history of humans, was introduced.

52. Four Stages of Epidemiological Transition 3rd Stage: Degenerative and Human-created disease- This stage was driven by "socially determined" factors in developed nations like lifestyle changes and better public health as well as medical technology in the developing world. Chronic disorders associated with aging (such as cancer and cardiovascular diseases) became the leading cause of death while infectious and parasitic diseases receded. Death rates fell (10 deaths per 1,000 population) in developed areas Birth age rose above 70 years because of declines in death rates among those surviving to middle and older ages

53. Four Stages of Epidemiological Transition 4th Stage: Delayed Degenerative diseases- In the latter part of the 20th century, death rates from these chronic degenerative diseases began to decline rapidly. For example, heart disease decline more than 30 percent between 1968 and 1982, concentrated among people at middle and older ages. Presence of major degenerative causes of death but life expectancy is lengthened due to medical advances (and the continuation of standards of living) permitting individuals with diseases such as cancer and cardiovascular disease to survive to older age.

54. Epidemiologic Transition-stage 5 (Theoretical) Correspond with Theoretical Stage 5 of the DTM -resurgence of epidemic diseases caused by antibiotic resistant strains and new diseases that come from animals (SARS, Avian bird flu, etc) Reasons Evolution of diseases because they are resistant to drugs or disease carrying insects that are now resistant to pesticides like DDT (mosquitoes resistant to DDT carry malaria) Poverty- Long expensive treatments make TB an issue in LDCs but not MDCs. AIDs could be argued to be another example of this. Improved Travel- Pandemics (diseases over a wide area) are now more likely because we travel so much more. H1N1, SARS and AIDs all traveled a great distance in a very short period of time.

55. H1N1 (Swine Flu) Outbreak

57. SARS Outbreak

59. HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rates, 2006

60. HIV (AIDS) Epidemic