1. Demographic Trends in Religion Eric Kaufmann, Harvard University/ Birkbeck-University of London e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk

2. 2 Aspects of Religion 1.Power of Religious Institutions over State 2.Individual piety I focus on second aspect – tends to affect the first

3. Based on affiliation (ie baptism for Christians) Applying affiliation data to country demographic projections

4. Church of England Baptisms as % of live births

5. Broad Trends Secularization: Catholic and part-Catholic Europe + Canada/Australasia/’blue’ states + southern cone of Latin America + global elite Stability: Protestant Europe + USA+Hinduism Resurgence: Islam, Pentecostalism (Asia, Latin America + Global South)

6. Demography is Key Inglehart: more are born in religious countries, so make up a larger share of global total. ***Send immigrants to nonreligious countries Lesthaeghe: once everyone has access to contraception and family planning, values matter more for fertility Conclusion: Some may become secular, but more will become religiously conservative

7. Religiosity and Fertility: Europe and USA United States, 2006 (GSS)

8. Will They Keep the Kids? Yes ‘Strict’ religions more successful in inspiring commitment, retaining members High fertility + high retention = high growth Hutterites: 400 in 1880, 50,000 today. From.7% to 3.3% of Canadian prairie farm population, 1951-81 Mormons: now outnumber Jews for those born after 1945

9. Muslims will grow from 3-5% of W. Europe’s population to region of 12-15% by 2050

10. Source: Goujon et al. 2006 Projected Muslim Population of Austria to 2051, 36 Scenarios

11. Source: Goujon et al. 2006 Projected Nonreligious Population of Austria to 2051, 36 Scenarios

12. Similar Dynamics in USA

13. Source: ‘The Moment of Truth’, Ha’aretz, 8 February 2007

15. Source: WVS 1999-2000. N = 2796 respondents in towns under 10,000 and 1561 respondents in cities over 100,000. Asked in Algeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Egypt.

16. Conclusion Religious – especially conservative religious, have larger families, retain members well State religious authorities matter more for fertility in authoritarian societies; conservative movements and individuals count for more in democratic ones Expect a growth in conservative Islam, Judaism and Christianity; Some erosion of moderate religion; Only Catholic Europe will see much secularization

17. Demographic Trends in Religion Eric Kaufmann, Harvard University/ Birkbeck-University of London e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk