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SOYBEAN OUTLOOK More Questions than Answers Midwest, Great Plains, and Western Outlook Conference Louisville, Kentucky Jim Hilker Department of Agricultural, Food, And Resource Economics Michigan State University August 15-16, 2011
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2011-2012 Continued Volatility Weather, Frost Scare, U.S. and World
U.S. and World Economy Energy Prices Value of the Dollar Fight for Acres South America plants knowing our crop size It is hard enough to forecast when we are in the range of our data. And when we are not?
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Monthly Soybean Futures
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Weekly Soybean Futures
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Nov 2011 Soybean Futures
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Cumulative Probability Distribution November 2011 Soybean Futures
Current Futures Price = Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity = Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity = perc = perc = perc = perc = perc = perc = perc = perc = perc =
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Cumulative Probability Distribution November 2008 Soybean Futures
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Cumulative Probability Distribution November 2012 Soybean Futures
Current Futures Price = Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity = Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity = perc = perc = perc = perc = perc = perc = perc = perc = perc =
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Day Soybean Meal Futures
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Day Soybean Oil Futures
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Soy Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS
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Soy Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA, FAS
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Export Pace vs. Last Year
Source: USDA, FAS
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Day Soybean Futures
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Nov 2011 Soybean Futures
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Cumulative Probability Distribution November 2011 Soybean Futures
Current Futures Price = Standard Error of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity = Median of Futures Price Distribution at Maturity = perc = perc = perc = perc = perc = perc = perc = perc = perc =
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2012 and Beyond Predict the Price of Corn
Calculate the Corn Gross Margin Add Corn G.M. To Soybean V.C. Calculate Soybean Breakeven Price Now you have the Soybean Price Forecast
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2012 and Beyond Continued Volatility U.S. and World Economy
Weather, U.S. and World U.S. and World Economy Value of the Dollar U.S. and World Trade Policy U.S. and World Energy Policy A very short world soybean crop A very large soybean crops Fight for acres
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Pricing Considerations
What should Sellers Do? Can we predict the basis?
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Day Soybean Futures
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Nov 2011 Soybean Futures
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Pricing Considerations
What should Buyers Do? Buying opportunity? Soymeal Corn DG’s Other
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Day Soybean Meal Futures
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Dec 11 Soymeal Futures
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Thanks Questions/Discussion
Jim Hilker’s Web Page
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