1. © Ipsos Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 1 Perils of Perception FOURTEEN COUNTRY STUDY

2. © Ipsos Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 2 This study is based on a survey run on Ipsos Global @dvisor, between 12-26 August 2014 Global @dvisor is conducted monthly in 24 countries around the world via the Ipsos Online Panel. For this study, 14 countries with high internet penetration were included: Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Great Britain, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden and the United States of America The research is based on an international sample of 11,527 adults aged 18-64 in the US and Canada, and age 16-64 in all other countries. Sample size is approximately 1,000 per country, with the exception of Belgium, Hungary, Poland, South Korea and Sweden where each have a sample of approximately 500 Data are weighted to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to the most recent Census data in each country The “point difference” figures that show differences between the “actual” and “average guesses” may not match a straight subtraction. This is due to rounding, as the calculation is conducted using decimal places

3. © Ipsos Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 3 Comparing our misperceptions

4. © Ipsos Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 4 Italy US South Korea Poland Hungary France Canada Belgium Australia Great Britain Spain Japan Germany Sweden 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12 th 13th 14th 7 th 2 nd 10 th 6 th 11 th 8 th 14 th 1 st 13 th 4 th 3 rd 12 th 9 th 5 th INDEX OF IGNORANCE Sweden Germany Japan Spain GB US Poland Hungary Italy South Korea Belgium France Canada Australia (Least accurate at top)

5. © Ipsos Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 5 243 181 170.5 162 151 163 152 140.4 130.2 141 120.6 110.7 110.5 80.7 US Poland Italy Hungary Canada Great Britain Australia Germany South Korea Spain France Belgium Japan Sweden IN YOUR OPINION WHAT PERCENTAGE OF GIRLS AGED BETWEEN 15 AND 19 GIVE BIRTH EACH YEAR? AVG. GUESS ACTUAL% POINT DIFFERENCETOO HIGH

6. © Ipsos Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 6 307 3213 2910 2810 162 140.4 3521 2413 2312 2313 102 2 2316 3528 Italy US Belgium France Hungary Poland Canada Great Britain Spain Germany Japan South Korea Sweden Australia IN YOUR OPINION WHAT % OF THE POPULATION DO YOU THINK ARE IMMIGRANTS TO THIS COUNTRY? AVG. GUESS ACTUAL% POINT DIFFERENCETOO HIGH

7. © Ipsos Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 7 318 296 202 182 215 204 151 162 196 175 70.4 5 5 4 OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE MUSLIM? AVG. GUESS ACTUAL France Belgium Canada Australia Great Britain Italy US Spain Germany Sweden Hungary South Korea Poland Japan TOO HIGH% POINT DIFFERENCE

8. © Ipsos Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 8 South Korea Japan Hungary Germany Italy France Spain Poland Australia Belgium Sweden Great Britain Canada US 4229 112 6253 58 6983 4963 6277 7994 6785 4664 4867 3959 4969 5678 % POINT DIFFERENCE OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE CHRISTIAN? AVG. GUESS ACTUALTOO LOWTOO HIGH

9. © Ipsos Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 9 4821 4215 3914 4318 3714 3614 4018 4119 3818 3717 4021 4125 3216 3319 Italy Poland Canada Spain Australia US Hungary Belgium France Great Britain Germany Japan South Korea Sweden OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE OVER 65? AVG. GUESS ACTUAL% POINT DIFFERENCETOO HIGH

10. © Ipsos Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 10 5780 5475 4966 4764 6076 4359 5569 5872 85 5161 5767 8493 4249 8589 OUT OF EVERY 100 ELIGIBLE VOTERS ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK VOTED IN THE LAST ELECTION? AVG. GUESS ACTUAL France Italy Great Britain Hungary South Korea Japan Spain Germany Sweden Canada US Australia Poland Belgium % POINT DIFFERENCETOO LOW

11. © Ipsos Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 11 4912 328 3911 326 349 318 4625 299 236 247 8 237 194 206 Italy South Korea Hungary US Poland Belgium Spain France Australia Great Britain Sweden Canada Japan Germany OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE OF WORKING AGE ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE UNEMPLOYED AND LOOKING FOR WORK? AVG. GUESS ACTUAL% POINT DIFFERENCETOO HIGH

12. © Ipsos Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 12 8980 8380 8582 8582 80 8180 8281 82 8082 7880 8184 7882 7277 6875 South Korea Great Britain France Sweden Germany Belgium Spain Australia Canada US Japan Italy Poland Hungary WHAT DO YOU THINK THE LIFE EXPECTANCY WILL BE OF A BORN IN 2014? AVG. GUESS ACTUALTOO LOWTOO HIGH% POINT DIFFERENCE

13. © Ipsos Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 13 National Perceptions Looking at the data in a different way By plotting the data on a chart of average guess versus the actual figure we can see the scale of misperception and the real figures in each country. The dashed line on each chart is a 45 degree line. Countries above the line show where people have, on average, guessed too high while flags below show where people are too low compared with the actual figure. In very few cases the flag is on the dashed line, indicating a correct average guess by the population of a country.

14. © Ipsos Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 14 IN YOUR OPINION, WHAT PERCENTAGE OF GIRLS AGED BETWEEN 15 AND 19 YRS GIVE BIRTH EACH YEAR? Average guess % % Girls aged between 15 and 19 years that give birth each year People across the world hugely overestimate the proportion of teenagers aged 15-19 who give birth each year..

15. © Ipsos Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 15 WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION DO YOU THINK ARE IMMIGRANTS TO THIS COUNTRY? Average guess % % Immigrants to this country Across the 14 countries, the public think immigration is over twice the actual level – the average guess is that 24% of the population was born abroad, when the actual figure is 11%.

16. © Ipsos Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 16 Average guess % % Muslims OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE MUSLIM? People massively overestimated the proportion of Muslims in every country. In France people guessed 31% of the population are Muslim, when the actual figure is only 8%.

17. © Ipsos Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 17 Average guess % % Christians OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE CHRISTIAN? In contrast to the Muslim question, majority-Christian countries tend to underestimate how many people count themselves as Christian.

18. © Ipsos Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 18 OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE OVER 65? Average guess % % Over 65 The issue of an ageing population is overestimated across the study. In Italy people think nearly half the population (48%) are 65+, when it is actually 21%.

19. © Ipsos Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 19 OUT OF EVERY 100 ELIGIBLE VOTERS ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE VOTED IN THE LAST ELECTION? Average guess % % Voted in last election Across the study people are pessimistic about democratic engagement. On average people guess that 58% voted in their last major election, when in fact 72% did.

20. © Ipsos Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 20 OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE OF WORKING AGE ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE UNEMPLOYED AND LOOKING FOR WORK? Average guess % % Unemployed and looking for work Unemployment is greatly overestimated without exception. In Italy, this is particularly apparent where the average guess is that 49% are unemployed, compared with an actual rate of 12%.

21. © Ipsos Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 21 WHAT DO YOU THINK THE LIFE EXPECTANCY WILL BE OF A CHILD BORN IN 2014? People across the study were much more perceptive about life- expectancy than most other areas. However some nations such as South Korea are too optimistic while Hungarians are too pessimistic. Average guess Average life expectancy

22. © Ipsos Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 22 National Perceptions

23. © Ipsos Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 23 Australia

24. © Ipsos Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 24 PERILS OF PERCEPTION IN AUSTRALIA Actual Average guess % 15-19 girls that gave birth % Over 65 % Muslim % Unemployed % Immigrants % Christian % Voted % Life expectancy Aussies tend to be wrong when asked about the basic make-up of their population and the scale of key social issues such as immigration and unemployment.

25. © Ipsos Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 25 People come into the country illegally so aren’t counted I still think the proportion is much higher What I see in my local area What I see when I visit other towns/cities I was just guessing Information seen on TV Information seen in newspapers The experiences of friends and family Other I misunderstood the question Don’t know Base: Asked of all who said 56% % who thought immigration is 56% or more Respondents who thought immigration was more than double the actual figure said the main reason they over-estimated is because they believe illegal immigrants enter the country without being counted IMMIGRATION According to official statistics the percentage of the Australian population that was born in another country is actually 28%. Why do you think the percentage is much higher? PERILS OF PERCEPTION IN AUSTRALIA

26. © Ipsos Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor PERILS OF PERCEPTION 26 Please tell me whether you think the following statement is true or false: The murder rate is rising in Australia CRIME PERILS OF PERCEPTION IN AUSTRALIA