1. 1 The Impact of Oil Price on Supply Chain Strategies David Simchi-Levi E-mail: dslevi@mit.edu Professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Chief Science Officer ILOG

2. 2 Traditional Business Strategies Lean Manufacturing Outsourcing and offshoring JIT Quick and frequent deliveries These strategies are based on assumptions of Cheap oil price Low labor cost in developing countries

3. Increase in Logistics Costs Rising energy prices Rail capacity pressure Truck driver shortage Security requirements 15% increase 3

4. Total US Logistics Costs 1984 to 2007 ($ Billions) Source: 19 th Annual Logistics Report 4 52% Transportation Admin 47% 62% Total Cost Inventory

5. 5 Impact of Oil Price on… Transportation Costs Network Strategies Transportation Strategies Supply Chain Strategies

6. US Diesel and Crude Oil Prices over time 6

7. Relationship between Crude Oil price and Diesel Fuel Price Trend Line Model Diesel Retail Price(Cents per Gallon) = 2.38515*Crude Oil Price($/barrel) + 132.292 7

8. Implications on crude oil price to transportation rates Given the relationship in the previous slide, we see that a $10/barrel increase in crude oil will result in ~$0.24/gallon increase in diesel fuel Standard fuel surcharge methodology is to increase surcharge $0.01/mile for every $0.06 increase in diesel fuel We conclude that for every $10 increase per barrel of crude oil price, we have an additional $0.04/mile increase in transportation rates. 8

9. 9 Impact of Oil Price on… Transportation Costs Network Strategies Transportation Strategies Supply Chain Strategies

10. 10 Impact of Oil Price on Network Strategy Trading off oil price for…  Inventory costs  Facility costs  Manufacturing costs

11. Manufacturer of consumer packaged goods Manufacturing is possible in three locations:  Philadelphia- Highest production cost  Omaha-  Juarez, Mexico- Lowest production cost 60 potential DC locations 888 aggregated customers Inbound transportation uses commercial TL carriers  TL averages 40,000 lbs/shipment Outbound transportation uses a private fleet  Private fleet averages 20,000 lbs/shipment 11 Case Study 1: Oil Prices and the Logistics Network

12. Case Study - Objectives Determine the best number and location of distribution centers, as well assignment of customers to DC’s. Determine the best allocation of production to their manufacturing locations. Understand how the optimal network would change as oil prices fluctuate  Roughly 25% of the supply chain costs are in transportation 12

13. 13 Network Visualization

14. Discussion of Tradeoffs As crude oil price increases, transportation costs become more important relative to production, inventory and facility fixed costs. Oil price vs. inventory carrying and facility costs  Additional DCs are more attractive  As outbound transportation becomes more expensive, it becomes increasing important to minimize the distance of the final leg. Oil price vs. production costs  Production moves nearer to demand  Cheaper manufacturing in Mexico is offset by higher transportation costs. 14

15. Oil price vs. inventory carrying and facility costs Moving from $125/ barrel to $150/ barrel changes the optimal number of DC’s from 5 to 7. In particular, you can think of Las Vegas being replaced by Los Angeles, Albuquerque, and Portland. $75/ barrel$200/ barrel 15 The Tipping Point

16. Oil price vs. production costs $75/ barrel$200/ barrel 16

17. Total Cost Comparison 3% increase in total cost as the price of a barrel increases from $100 to $150 17

18. 18 Impact of Oil Price on… Transportation Costs Network Strategies Transportation Strategies Supply Chain Strategies

19. Changes in Transportation Strategy From JIT delivery to better utilization of transportation capacity  Larger lot sizes shipped less frequently  Efficient packaging to improve truck utilization From quick delivery to cheaper and sometimes slower transportation modes  From air to ground  From trucking to rail From dedicated to shared resources  3 rd party carriers  Consolidated warehouses 19

20. 20 Changes in transportation strategy: Examples In 2007, S.C. Johnson’ truck utilization project saved the firm “$1.6 million and cut fuel use by 168,000 gallons.”  The firm found that mixing loads of Winded glass cleaner and Ziploc bag, which used to be packed in separate loads, better utilizes truck capacity Multiple manufacturers store their products in ES3’ giant warehouse located in York Pennsylvania where truck loads are built and shipped to retailer’s distribution centers.  An important benefit of the consolidated warehouse is reduction in transportation costs

21. 21 Impact of Oil Price on… Transportation Costs Network Strategies Transportation Strategies Supply Chain Strategies

22. Changes in Supply Chain Strategy More Inventory  Due to EOS and more DCs Emphasize on better service  To reduce expediting costs Less offshoring  To reduce total landed costs 22

23. 23 Sharp moves from offshoring to nearshoring TV manufacturer Sharp has recently started moving manufacturing facilities from Asia to Mexico to serve customers in North and South America. This is driven by the need to keep shipping costs low and time to market short.  Indeed, price of flat TV typically falls fast and thus reducing shipping time from about 40 days, when flat TVs were produced in Asia, to seven days makes a big impact on bottom line.

24. When to Move from Offshoring to Inshoring? -- Product Characteristics III I II Cost of Moving Infrastructure L H HLHL Transportation Impact Inshoring Manufacturing or Assembly (TV, Refrigerators, Appliances, Car Parts, Furniture) Inshoring (Footwear, Toys) Offshoring (Mobile Phone, PC)

25. 25 Toy manufacturer is moving plants near demand Steiff, a privately owned German manufacturing company of toys was part of the global outsourcing trend when it moved around 20% of production to low cost countries.  The objective was to cut cost and compete on price. Recently, this toy manufacturer started moving production back to Germany, Portugal and Tunisia.  The reasons: quality problems together with high transportation costs associated with manufacturing far from the key markets

26. 26 Drivers of Moving from Offshoring to Inshoring Oil Price Labor Cost The value of the dollar The Average Annual Wage Increase between 2003 and 2008 in different Countries

27. Mexico US Production Cost per Unit L H HLHL Transportation Cost per Unit (weight, volume, etc) Asia US Slope= $ per pound A B C I II When to Move from Offshoring to Inshoring

28. Case Study 2: Sourcing Strategies A large floor covering manufacturer Hardwood, Ceramic Tile, Carpet, Laminate Challenge  Understand how increasing labor and transportation costs across the globe are causing previous sourcing decisions to be altered

29. Sourcing Parameters  37,000 SKUs  Large range of Production Costs  $0.01 to $300 per unit if production is in the US  Large Range of Weights  0.01 to 5,000 pounds per unit  Manufacturing options  US –Atlanta; Mexico – Monterey; China- Shanghai  Combination of transport modes  Ocean; Rail; Truck Load

30. Sourcing Analysis - 2008 Mexico US China

31. Costs increase between 2003 & 2008 Labor Costs  US ↑ 15 %  Mexico ↑ 23 %  China ↑ 144 % Transportation Costs  Ocean Freight↑ 100 %  TL/Rail↑ 25 %  Good estimate of the increase in rail and TL costs  Conservative estimate of the increase in ocean costs

32. Sourcing Strategies: 2003 and 2008 SKUs (in orange) moved from China to Mexico SKUs moved from China to US

33. 33 Your Turn! How to contact me: David Simchi-Levi dslevi@mit.edu