1. TIWANA WALTON MENTOR: SHARON MONICA JONES High Level Aviation Safety Risk Assessment

2. Outline Abstract Background Aviation Risk Assessment Research Approach

3. Abstract Prior methods for calculating aviation safety risk assessments were labor intensive. The purpose of this research is to find an alternative method for conducting aviation safety risk analysis in support of the portfolio assessment for Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control (IRAC) Project within the NASA Aviation Safety (AvSafe) Program. A literature search is being conducted to find high level technology aviation risk assessment methodologies and structured data collection methods for use with subject matter experts. As a result of the literature search, strong consideration has been placed on applying the Delphi Method to conduct future aviation safety analysis using risk matrices and decision support software.

4. Background NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate  Aviation Safety Program (AvSafe)  Airspace Systems Program  Fundamental Aeronautics Program  Aeronautics Test Program Aviation Safety Program  Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) Project  Integrated Intelligent Flight Deck (IIFD) Project  Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control (IRAC) Project  Aircraft Aging and Durability (AAD) Project

5. Background (cont’d) IRAC Milestone 4.2.4  Assess IRAC portfolio by mapping IRAC research to the potential loss of control scenarios. Identify overlooked safety issues involved in loss of control events. http://www.aeronautics.nasa.gov/nra_pdf/irac_tech_plan_c1.pdf  Five metrics within this milestone:  Technical development risk  Implementation risk  Fatal accident rate  Safety benefit/costs  Projected impact of safety risk

6. Aviation Safety Risk Assessment Previous Methods Used  Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN’s)  Logic Evolved Decision (LED) Problems with Prior Methods  Labor intensive  Relies on historic data

7. Ideal Characteristics of Risk Assessment Methods Short model development time Smaller resource requirements (i.e., people, money) Ability to model several technologies in R&D portfolio Smaller data requirements/less computational intensive => high level qualitative assessment methodology

8. Research Approach Literature Search List of Candidate Methods Review Candidate Methods Against Ideal Characteristics Final Recommendations/Conclusions

9. Literature Search Literature Search Conducted  Compendex  IEEE Explorer  NASA library catalog Literature Search  was limited to materials within last 20 years  Included conference and journal papers  Also included text books

10. Candidate Methods FAA Risk Matrix Delphi Method DoD Risk Matrix Fault Logic Diagram Decision Trees

11. FAA Risk Matrix

12. SBN Risk Matrix Definitions Likelihood: Frequently Occurs once every week Probable Occurs once every month Remote Occurs once every 5 years Extremely Remote Occurs once every 10 years Extremely Improbable Occurs once every 20 years Severity: Catastrophic Loss of aircraft aircraft, life and/or damage in excess of $1,000,000 Hazardous Severe injury or damage in excess of $100,000 and/or disruption of critical services (NAVAIDS, etc.) Major Significant (but repairable) damage to an aircraft, equipment or Significant aircraft, facility and/or minor injury Minor Minor damage to equipment or facilities No Safety Effect No injury, equipment or facility damage is possible

13. Future Work Continue reviewing candidates against criteria Make final recommendations about risk assessment method for IRAC portfolio analysis Work with IRAC Systems Analysis Team to implement risk assessment methodology against IRAC list of technologies