Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Modeling Primary Energy Substitution in Asia Pacific Roberto F. Aguilera Washington DC, 11 October 2011.

Published byFrancis Summers Modified over 9 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Modeling Primary Energy Substitution in Asia Pacific Roberto F. Aguilera Washington DC, 11 October 2011."— Presentation transcript:

1 Modeling Primary Energy Substitution in Asia Pacific Roberto F. Aguilera Washington DC, 11 October 2011

2 CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW) www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics OBJECTIVES  To present projections of the future energy mix in Asia Pacific using a Global Energy Market Model (GEM)  To discuss effects of energy policy  To assess the availability of natural gas

3 CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW) www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics Methodology

4 CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW) www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics Asia Pacific Population and Consumption

5 CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW) www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics Asia Pacific Energy Mix (Reference) Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011c), Applied Energy, under review

6 CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW) www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics Asia Pacific Energy Mix (Alternative 1) Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011c), Applied Energy, under review POLICIES:  Gas price setting  Coal subsidies  Restrict foreign investment

7 CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW) www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics Asia Pacific Energy Mix (Alternative 2) Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011c), Applied Energy, under review POLICIES:  Environmental (e.g. taxes on fuel, emissions, subsidies for NGVs,…)  Deregulation, privatization  Consistency across borders  Nuclear restrictions

8 CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW) www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics Asia Pacific H/C Ratio Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011c), Applied Energy, under review

9 CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW) www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics Asia Pacific Gas Consumption

10 CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW) www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics USGS World Petroleum Assessment (2000)  USGS (2000) divides Asia Pacific into 290 provinces  Evaluated 77 provinces for known + undiscovered gas quantities

11 CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW) www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics USGS World Petroleum Assessment (2000) 1. Northwest Shelf 2. Kutei Basin 3. Greater Sarawak Basin 4. Malay Basin 6. Tarim Basin 5. Ganges-Br. Delta

12 CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW) www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics Variable Shape Distribution (VSD) Model  Used to estimate volumes natural gas in previously unassessed provinces  Unlike other models, VSD is not based on an assumed distribution (e.g. Pareto or lognormal)

13 CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW) www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy VSD (Variable Shape Distribution) Model

14 CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW) www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics VSD (Variable Shape Distribution) Model Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy

15 CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW) www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics VSD (Variable Shape Distribution) Model Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy

16 CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW) www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics VSD (Variable Shape Distribution) Model Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy

17 CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW) www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics Asia Pacific Natural Gas Endowment Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy

18 CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW) www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics Asia Pacific Natural Gas Endowment Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy Cumulative Production (264 TCFG) Source: BP (2011)

19 CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW) www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics Distribution of Gas Endowment by Country TOTAL: 2,240 TCFG Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy

20 CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW) www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics Asia Pacific Gas Supply Cost Curve Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011b), WPC Source: BP (2011)

21 CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW) www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics SHALE GAS Source: Aguilera et al. (2008), World Petroleum Congress

22 CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW) www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics SHALE GAS TECHNOLOGY: HYDRAULIC FRACTURING Source: American Petroleum Institute (2010)

23 CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW) www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics AUSTRALIAN GAS RESOURCE PYRAMID Source: Geoscience Australia (2010)

24 CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW) www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics AUSTRALIAN SHALE GAS BASINS Source: Geoscience Australia (2010) Source: adapted from USGS (2000)

25 CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW) www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics WORLD GAS SUPPLY CURVE Source: Ripple (2011), Australian Ambassador’s Speaker Series

26 CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW) www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics WORLD GAS SUPPLY CURVE Source: International Energy Agency (2009)

27 CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW) www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics CONCLUSIONS  Natural gas in Asia Pacific more abundant and economic than commonly assumed  Appropriate energy policy needed to access potential with minimal environmental impact  Gas will have positive impact on energy security, environment, economic growth

28 Modeling Primary Energy Substitution in Asia Pacific THANK YOU Washington DC, 11 October 2011 r.aguilera@curtin.edu.au

Download ppt "Modeling Primary Energy Substitution in Asia Pacific Roberto F. Aguilera Washington DC, 11 October 2011."

Similar presentations

Pakistans Power Sector Need for Reforms By Kalim A. Siddiqui President-Petroleum Marketing Byco Petroleum Paksitan Limited 4 th International Power Generation.

Pakistans Power Sector Need for Reforms By Kalim A. Siddiqui President-Petroleum Marketing Byco Petroleum Paksitan Limited 4 th International Power Generation.
Citizens petitions on shale gas extraction in Bulgaria and Poland Workshop on The exploration and exploitation of shale gas in the European Union and its.

Citizens petitions on shale gas extraction in Bulgaria and Poland Workshop on The exploration and exploitation of shale gas in the European Union and its.
1 Antonio Soria Head of Unit Economics of Energy, Climate Change and Transport Institute for Prospective Technological Studies Joint Research Centre European.

1 Antonio Soria Head of Unit Economics of Energy, Climate Change and Transport Institute for Prospective Technological Studies Joint Research Centre European.
Arno Becker Institute for Food and Resource Economics (ILR), University of Bonn ImpactsMarket development Policy measures Policy objectives Leading to.

Arno Becker Institute for Food and Resource Economics (ILR), University of Bonn ImpactsMarket development Policy measures Policy objectives Leading to.
The impact of the rebound effect of first generation biofuel use in the EU on greenhouse gas emissions 17 th ICABR Conference, 19 June 2013 Edward Smeets,

The impact of the rebound effect of first generation biofuel use in the EU on greenhouse gas emissions 17 th ICABR Conference, 19 June 2013 Edward Smeets,
Chinese Coal & US-China Coal Trade Kevin Jianjun Tu, Senior Associate Carnegie Endowment for International Peace The Energy Bar Association & Asian Americans.

Chinese Coal & US-China Coal Trade Kevin Jianjun Tu, Senior Associate Carnegie Endowment for International Peace The Energy Bar Association & Asian Americans.
Does FDI Harm the Host Country’s Environment? Evidence from Coastal and Interior China Helen Feng Liang University of California, Berkeley April 12, 2006.

Does FDI Harm the Host Country’s Environment? Evidence from Coastal and Interior China Helen Feng Liang University of California, Berkeley April 12, 2006.
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004: Key Trends and Challenges Marco Baroni Energy Analyst Economic Analysis Division INTERNATIONAL HYDROGEN.

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004: Key Trends and Challenges Marco Baroni Energy Analyst Economic Analysis Division INTERNATIONAL HYDROGEN.
IPCC Synthesis Report Part V Summary and relationship to other environmental issues Robert Watson.

IPCC Synthesis Report Part V Summary and relationship to other environmental issues Robert Watson.
1 Outlook for Asia-Pacific Oil Demand and Supply with A Special Emphasis on China* Dr. Kang Wu Senior Fellow East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA Prepared.

1 Outlook for Asia-Pacific Oil Demand and Supply with A Special Emphasis on China* Dr. Kang Wu Senior Fellow East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA Prepared.
WA State Climate Impacts Assessment (HB 1303) CIG Fall Forecasting Meeting October 2, 2007 Marketa McGuire Elsner.

WA State Climate Impacts Assessment (HB 1303) CIG Fall Forecasting Meeting October 2, 2007 Marketa McGuire Elsner.
Global Energy Perspective Present Primary Power Mix Future Constraints Imposed by Sustainability Theoretical and Practical Energy Potential of Various.

Global Energy Perspective Present Primary Power Mix Future Constraints Imposed by Sustainability Theoretical and Practical Energy Potential of Various.
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 © BP Proved oil reserves at end 2003.

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 © BP Proved oil reserves at end 2003.
SGM P.R. Shukla. Second Generation Model Top-Down Economic Models  Project baseline carbon emissions over time for a country or group of countries 

SGM P.R. Shukla. Second Generation Model Top-Down Economic Models  Project baseline carbon emissions over time for a country or group of countries 
Click to edit Master title style A R EVOLUTION IN A SIA -P ACIFIC E NERGY M ARKETS E NERGY E XPORTS S UMMIT Washington, D.C. | May 6, 2015 Meredith Miller.

Click to edit Master title style A R EVOLUTION IN A SIA -P ACIFIC E NERGY M ARKETS E NERGY E XPORTS S UMMIT Washington, D.C. | May 6, 2015 Meredith Miller.
U.S. LNG Exports – Prospects and Implications W. David Montgomery Senior Vice President NERA Economic Consulting PANC 2013 Annual Seminar May 21, 2013.

U.S. LNG Exports – Prospects and Implications W. David Montgomery Senior Vice President NERA Economic Consulting PANC 2013 Annual Seminar May 21, 2013.
Are We Entering a Golden Age of Gas? Karel Dyba Ambassador of the Czech Republic to the OECD Presentation at the IEC Ostrava 2011 based on findings from.

Are We Entering a Golden Age of Gas? Karel Dyba Ambassador of the Czech Republic to the OECD Presentation at the IEC Ostrava 2011 based on findings from.
1 Alternative Energy Sources Delivered on Behalf of: Bill Pyke Hilbre Consulting Limited October 2012 Copyright and all intellectual property rights retained.

1 Alternative Energy Sources Delivered on Behalf of: Bill Pyke Hilbre Consulting Limited October 2012 Copyright and all intellectual property rights retained.
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook: Key Strategic Challenges Maria Argiri Economic Analysis Division.

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook: Key Strategic Challenges Maria Argiri Economic Analysis Division.
TIER1 Energy Security in PECC Region Dr. David Hong Taiwan Institute of Economic Research 28-30 November 2001.

TIER1 Energy Security in PECC Region Dr. David Hong Taiwan Institute of Economic Research November 2001.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google