1. EC Projections Workshop

3. Energy Paper 68 – baseline energy and CO 2 projections, 2000 – 2020, published by DTI, November 2000. No plans to revise projections yet. UK Climate Change Programme – projections of all GHGs, including policies and measures, published by DEFRA, November 2000. No plans to revise yet. DEFRA is the department of environment, food and rural affairs) DTI is the department of trade and industry

4. Projections and Policy: Departmental Responsibilities DTI DEFRA DTI/DEFRA Key DepartmentsArea Energy projections Climate Change Policy CO 2 Emission projections Other GHG projections DTIEnergy policy DEFRA

5. Model Design n Two main components of the model: sectoral econometric models of final energy demand a LP model of electricity supply

6. Model Design l Electricity supply model: key features  a linear programme covers existing major power producer power stations plus renewable plants  based on pre-determined fuel costs, plant costs etc determines the overall least cost means of supply models main coal plants individually determines the merit order - the cheapest plants forecasts what new plant type is most economic model constrained to meet SOx/NOx emissions limits

7. Other Models and Procedures n A simulation CHP model n A refinery model n An Excel based workbook to calculate emissions on a UK source, end user and fuel basis and on a detailed and summary IPCC basis (with 3000 lines of visual basic programming)

8. Providers of Information/ Users of Results The Energy Model ENP OG ENV Other DTI SPRU (model) DECADE OG HMT EC DEFRA ENP Energy companies *including Met Office, OGDs, energy equipment manufacturers, other Others* OGDs IEA Other DTI PROVIDERSUSERS Others

9. DTI UK Energy Model Overview OG other wisdom ENP world fuel prices UK fuel prices final energy demand model fuel demand by sectorcost of electricity generation energy related emissions electricity demand electricity supply optimisation model matrix of emission coefficientsother emissions electricity prices ENPHMTOEF GDP, activity assumptions total emissions, IPCC basis other assumptions emissions inventory model

10. Final Energy Demand Sector Drivers

11. Key Energy Modelling Assumptions Used in EP68 1. Incomes and economic growth 2. Energy Prices 3. Household numbers

12. Key Energy Modelling Assumptions Used in EP68 -3 economic growth cases (low, central and high) -2 energy price cases (low and high) Many tests of sensitivity (including nuclear lifetimes, energy prices, temperature…)

15. Key Assumptions on Population: Projection of total households in England, 1996 - 2021

16. POLICIES AND MEASURES Policies in the baseline (EP68) for 2010: PolicyCO 2 Saving (MtC) 10% renewables in generation2.5 Climate change levy2.0 Road fuel duty1 – 2.5 POLICIES AND MEASURES Policies in the baseline (EP68) for 2010: PolicyCO 2 Saving (MtC) 10% renewables in generation2.5 Climate change levy2.0 Road fuel duty1 – 2.5

17. POLICIES AND MEASURES Policies in the Climate Change Programme for 2010: PolicyCO 2 Saving (MtC) Climate change agreements/IPCC2.5 EU agreement on CO 2 from cars…4.0 Domestic energy efficiency4.0-5.5 Emissions trading scheme (1 st stage)2.0 + OtherAround 5.0

18. UK greenhouse gas emissions 1990-2020 (without/ with Climate Change Programme)

19. Change in Baseline Emission Projections ( 2000 View against 1995 View )

20. Main Reasons for Change in Baseline Emission Projections Climate change levy more CHP Lower offshore emissions Effects of road fuel duties ReasonsArea industry Road transport other 10% renewables generation lower electricity demand Power stations

21. Openness Energy Modelling - EP68 1)..Energy industries are consulted 2)..A working paper was issued for comment 3)..Modellers available for informal discussion 4)..Energy Model Review - openness is a key issue 1)..Consultation Paper published for comment 2)..Dialogue with companies, other bodies Climate Change Programme Government Energy Review 1)..Encourages more openness 2)..Recommends a new sustainable energy unit, with more analytical capability, across Govt

22. Model Parameters Energy Modelling - EP68 1)..Model elasticities last published in EP65 in March 1995 2)..Occasional papers submitted to conferences 3)..Elasticities reported in annual Energy Reports 4)..Modellers available for informal discussion of model parameters 5)..Energy Model Review will assess how best to provide information