1. Dr Alan J Murphy School of Marine Science and Technology

2. Shipping’s GHG challenge Globalisation = Trade = Shipping Fleet DWT% global CO2 2007~1bn te3-4% 2014~1.5bn te? 2050?12-18%

3. Our aims The relationship between transport logistics and future ship designs Future demand for shipping The impacts of technical and policy solutions on future shipping scenarios Implementation barriers to low carbon shipping Shipping GHG measurement and apportionment

4. Project scope Global with high resolution for UK centric flows Commodities (first focus) –Energy products –Major bulks –Containers Transporter type –Ship (first focus) Containers Tankers - Crude, Product Dry Bulkers –Other modes Pipe/Rail/Road etc

5. Subject Matter Experts Professor James Corbett (Delaware) Professor Henry Marcus (MIT)

6. A systems approach WP1 - Shipping modelling WP2 - Technologies for low carbon shipping WP3 - Shipping, ports and logistics WP4 - Shipping economics WP5 - Regulations, policy and incentives WP6 - Ship operations

7. WP1 - The Model

8. Are these numbers correct? What would a 20%,40%,60% CO2 reduced container,tanker,bulker look like? WP2 - Technologies Integrate

9. WP3 - Shipping ports and logistics Map the current and projected transport network Model the impacts of network reconfiguration Assess the environmental impact of port activities

10. Map freight flows – CO2 Consequences? Route Decision making – CO2 Consequences? Port Activity – CO2 Consequences? Source: MCA Routes around the UK by vessel type

11. WP4 - Shipping economics Environmental/life cycle shipping costing Macro/micro shipping analysis Characteristics of shipping markets

12. WP5 - Regulation, policy and incentives Ship owner H&M Manufacturer Classification society Flag state IMO Port state control Ship yard Bunker supplier Captain/crew Ship financiers Management company Shareholders Ship broker Charterer Insurer Final consumer Consignee Analyse incentivisation across the stakeholder space Analyse regulation scenarios –Aviation vs. shipping –Relative to criteria (e.g. legality, abatement, trade impacts)

13. WP6 - Human factors & ship operations Develop knowledge regarding energy efficient operation Develop onboard monitoring and decision support systems Research efficiency optimised maintenance regimes

14. Concluding remarks –Society –Governments –Industry How much can we regulate without stifling economic growth? What is optimum regulatory vehicle? How can I still be in business in 20 year’s time? What sort of technologies will be most important? A transition to a low carbon economy will challenge: How much can shipping contribute to the 80%? Will I still be buying cheap electronics from China? This work is intended to answer:

15. www.lowcarbonshipping.co.uk a.j.murphy@ncl.ac.uk