1. Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 1 USA Solar Market Solar Market Business Management SS ‘12 Jesús Martínez Cantú

2. Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 2 Agenda Overview (Key facts) Electricity Energy Sector Infrastructure Electricity Prices and Solar radiation Levelized Cost of Electricity Grid Parity Projection Political Framework Conclusion Solar Market conosurconsultores.com

3. Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 3 Overview (Key facts) Federal constitutional republic (50 States and 1 Federal district) 9.8 million km^ 2 area (25 times Germany) and 312 million people ( 3 rd ) GDP 2011; US$ 15.1 trill. ( 1 st ), China US$ 7 trill. ( 2 nd ). (1 US$ = 0.79 Eur) Energy Consumption 2011; 97.5 quad. BTU  28.5 PWh (10^15) (1 st ), more than 7 times Germany consumption (*) Data 2010 wikipedia Total energy consumption increases 12 % by 2035. (0.5% per year) US EIA http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/ major_energy_sources_and_users.cfm http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/r enewable_electricity.cfm

4. Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 4 Electricity Energy Sector infrastructure Differents sources to generate electricity  No national Grid to transmission 3 grids operating in 48 contiguous states, 1 grid in Alaska and 1 grid in Hawaii. In addition throughout the year consumption varies, therefore prices vary according location. http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief /power_grid.cfm http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/ detail.cfm?id=4270 http://www.eia.gov/state/ (*) 2010

5. Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 5 Electricity prices 2011 Avg Vs. Radiation (1 US$ = 0.79 Eur)

6. Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 6 Levelized cost of Electricity Solar System Assumptions from RNEL 2011 study. (c-Si Modules) http://www.osti.gov/bridge 25 % overnight capital cost reduction due modules price vs. 2011 study. http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/beck_plantcos ts/ LCOE NREL simple calculator used. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/tec h_lcoe.html (1 US$ = 0.79 Eur)

7. Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 7 Grid Parity is coming… (1 US$ = 0.79 Eur) Assuming 10 % system price reduction by learning curve in PV. Approx. yearly trend increases electricity price by 2.65 % Residential, 1.89% Industrial and 0.5 % Utility.

8. Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 8 Political Framework Adoption of electric retail choice programs that allow end-use customers to buy electricity from competitive retail suppliers. State Incentives: California Solar Initiative. (http://www.gosolarcalifornia.ca.gov/csi/index.php ) States Policies  SREC’s on states with Renewable Portfolio Standard. Federal Incentives: Business Energy Investment Tax Credit (ITC). 30 % tax credit from renewable equipment http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/ detail.cfm?id=6250 http://dsireusa.org

9. Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 9 Projection PV and CSP (Utility) www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51847.p df

10. Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 10 U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)Sunshot iniative Reducing Solar Technology Costs ▫ Increasing PV solar cell efficiency, ▫ Reducing production costs ▫ Opening new markets for solar energy Reducing Solar Grid Integration Costs ▫ Grid Planning ▫ Reliability Accelerating Deployment solar technologies

11. Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 11 Conclusion US Solar Market is increasing ▫ Fast due approaching grid parity. ▫ RPS in states and federal incentives facilitate deployment. Potential to be biggest solar market in the world. (Resources and demand). If trends prevail the percentage of Solar plants generating electricity at utility-scale will be higher than 16 % as projected in 2035 by US EIA. (http://205.254.135.7/forecasts/aeo/er/pdf/0383er(2012).pdf) Better estimation of LCOE should be customized to the location. (state characteristics, CP, more detailed overnight cost, wages, etc.)

12. Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 12 laiaatienza.com

13. Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 13 References http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/reports.cfm?t=182 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_energy_consumption_and_production http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/power_grid.cfm http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/beck_plantcosts/ http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=4270 http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/tech_lcoe.html http://www.osti.gov/bridge http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser http://dsireusa.org/ http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser/#release=EARLY2012&subject=2- EARLY2012&table=2-EARLY2012&region=1-0&cases=early2012-d121011b http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51847.pdf http://205.254.135.7/forecasts/aeo/er/pdf/0383er(2012).pdf http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/ http://www.gosolarcalifornia.org/csi/index.php