1. Determining future supply and demand for teachers Ginette Gervais Isabelle Thony Centre for Education Statistics Elementary-Secondary Section

2. Centre for Education Statistics, Elementary-Secondary Section 2 Presentation content The demography of Elementary/Secondary Educational Staff in Canada’s Schools - Supply and Demand Model - Supply Factors - Demand Factors - Preliminary Results - Future Issues

3. Centre for Education Statistics, Elementary-Secondary Section 3 Simple model of teacher supply and demand Similar to the Cohort Component Method –The model takes the population distributed by age at a base date and carries it forward in time, cohort by cohort, on the basis of separate allowances for attrition.

4. Centre for Education Statistics, Elementary-Secondary Section 4 Simple model of teacher supply and demand supply =current complement of teachers + graduates - retirements + net migration demand = school-aged population x participation rate / pupil-educator ratio supply - demand = surplus or shortage

5. Supply factors Current complement of teachers –Existing teaching staff –full-time public elementary-secondary educators* Entries to profession –Teacher education graduates* –Qualified new immigrants –Career changes (other qualified people) –Reentrants Departures from profession –Attrition: –retirements*, emigration*, career changes –disability/deaths, leave and resignation –Termination –Policy (I.e. retirement benefit levels) Centre for Education Statistics, Elementary-Secondary Section

6. Relationship of Job to education and use of acquired skills on the job for 1995 university graduates employed full-time in June 1997, by field of study Source: National Graduate Survey

7. Immigrant educators landing in Nova Scotia by the top ten country of last permanent residence, 1986-2000 Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada

8. Immigrant educators landing in Ontario by the top ten country of last permanent residence, 1986-2000 Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada

9. Immigrant educators landing in British Columbia by the top ten country of last permanent residence, 1986-2000 Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada

10. Median age at retirement by industry, and change over time* Source: Labour force * According to last job prior to retirement.

11. Educators in Canada 1998 to 2010 based on to 2 projection scenarios Source: Centre for Education Statistics

12. Educators in Nova Scotia 1998 to 2010 based on to 2 projection scenarios Source: Centre for Education Statistics

13. Educators in Ontario 1998 to 2010 based on to 2 projection scenarios Source: Centre for Education Statistics

14. Educators in British Columbia 1998 to 2010 based on to 2 projection scenarios Source: Centre for Education Statistics

15. Centre for Education Statistics, Elementary-Secondary Section 15 Demand factors Expansion/contraction –Enrolment* –School-aged population* Policy (i.e. class sizes) –Pupil-educator ratio* Technology

16. Centre for Education Statistics, Elementary-Secondary Section 16 A work in progress Other components of supply and demand that could eventually be incorporated: –School level –Subject taught –Educators by staff position –Gender –Public vs. private sector –Rural area vs. urban area –Large schools vs. small schools Micro data simulation model Input welcome

17. Determining future supply and demand for teachers Ginette Gervais, (613) 951-3289 e-mail: gervgin@statcan.ca Isabelle Thony, (613) 951-0935 e-mail: thonisa@statcan.ca Fax number: (613) 951-4441 Centre for Education Statistics Elementary-Secondary Section

18. Centre for Education Statistics, Elementary-Secondary Section 18 Cohort-Component Method: A population forecast is a projection in which the assumptions are considered to yield a realistic picture of the probable future development of a population. Although the projection period is variable, short term forecasts are the rule, as the margin of error to which forecasts are subject increases considerably as the length of the forecast's period increases. The most frequently used method of projection is the component method or cohort-component method which takes the population distributed by age and sex at a base date and carries it forward in time, cohort by cohort, on the basis of separate allowances for fertility, mortality and migration. When matrix algebra is used for component projections, the method is sometimes called matrix method of projection. Sabbatical Leave: is an authorized period of leave without pay, but with an allowance in lieu of salary, for a specified duration (normally twelve (12) months or less) during which time eligible UTs, while remaining employees, shall be relieved of their normal teaching and administrative obligations as a means of providing them with an opportunity to pursue research or other scholarly activities thereby improving their knowledge of a particular discipline and enhancing their professional competence.