1. The Future of the Teaching Profession By Professor John Howson Oxford Teacher Services Ltd 2 nd June 2015 SATTAG Seminar Portcullis House Westminster

2. Recruitment for ITT in 2015 The picture for graduate recruitment in Mid-May 2015 Based upon data from UCAS

3. Source: DfE various Statistical Bulletins

4. Source: Schools Weekly

7. Source DfE ITT Census

11. Recruitment into training for 2015 – Mid-May 2015 (source UCAS ITT data) Secondary subjects fall into three groups. There are the three subjects: Languages, History and Physical Education where the DfE number of trainees required will be met easily, and there will probably be too many trainees for all the vacancies in 2016.

12. Recruitment into training for 2015 – Mid-May 2015 (source UCAS ITT data) The second group of subjects are those where offers are better than at this point last year but are still likely to be insufficient to meet the DfE number required as identified by the Teacher Supply Model. These include subjects such as Physics, Mathematics, English, Design & Technology, Chemistry, Biology and Art.

13. Recruitment into training for 2015 – Mid-May 2015 (source UCAS ITT data) Secondary subjects fall into three groups. Finally, there are five subjects where the DfE number required to enter training almost certainly won’t be reached and the current position over the number of offers made appears worse than at this stage last year. These subjects are: Religious Education, Music, Geography, IT/Computer Science and Business Studies.

14. A first look at the Labour Market for Classroom Teachers January – May 2015 Data provided by TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk

15. North East North West Yorkshire & the Humber East Midlands West Midlands London East of England South West South East England Art10203932 87573392402 Science842181811802304603081894692319 English572001691591883132511603531850 Mathematics982231731532233773171663922122 Languages3498787668230158841951021 Humanities41722 37241836202 IT206352578113610755140711 Design & Technology 355664597813510776148758 Business10283652581079326150560 RE2666333635936323101476 PE122438213056523370336 Creative Arts92423222455341250253 SEN2753424482380 Music62725 2780484073351 Social Sciences101926282167472450292 Geography30795660 16111957156778 History336950555314510246104657 TOTAL4881254109610601271259719281082265013426 Vacancies from TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk on 26 th May 2015www.teachvac.co.uk

16. GroupITTNumber left% left Art53428152.72 Science227779134.76 English168935020.75 Mathematics218684838.79 Languages110545941.54 IT5199818.88 Design & Technology450-6-1.33 Business200-83-41.75 RE38511630.26 PE127198777.66 Music37215240.86 Social Sciences113-39-34.51 Geography60112821.38 History78632741.67 ITT pool numbers as of 26/05/15

17. Conclusions Unless ITT recruitment increases between now and September: - Some secondary subjects will experience a third year of under-recruitment against anticipated need in 2015 -Recruitment for teaching vacancies in 2016 will be as challenging or even more so than in 2015 -Teach First intake is still only around 1,500 secondary places compared with c 35,000 through other routes

18. Information currently lacking -We know little or nothing about the locations of the pool of potential returners to teaching -Will we need to recruit overseas teachers in substantial numbers? - Will schools choose to supress vacancies by changing the curriculum?

19. Possible Strategies? – Pay the fees of all graduate trainees from 2015 entry onwards – this will be especially helpful to career changers that have paid off previous fees and that need to repay the £9,000 as soon as they start teaching

20. Possible Strategies? – Pay the fees of all graduate trainees from 2015 entry onwards – this will be especially helpful to career changers that have paid off previous fees and will need to repay the £9,000 as soon as they start teaching – Look to how those training to be teachers that have links to communities can be employed in those communities and more mobile students can be encouraged to move to where they are needed.

21. Possible Strategies? – Pay the fees of all graduate trainees from 2015 entry onwards – this will be especially helpful to career changers that have paid off previous fees and will need to repay the £9,000 as soon as they start teaching – Look to how those training to be teachers that have links to communities can be employed in those communities and more mobile students can be encouraged to move to where they are needed. – Make sure teacher preparation places are more closely linked to where the jobs will be. This means reviewing places in London and the Home counties – not enough – and the North West – probably too many in some subjects and sectors.

22. Possible Strategies? – Pay the fees of all graduate trainees from 2015 entry onwards – this will be especially helpful to career changers that have paid off previous fees and will need to repay the £9,000 as soon as they start teaching – Look to how those training to be teachers that have links to communities can be employed in those communities and more mobile students can be encouraged to move to where they are needed. – Make sure teacher preparation places are more closely linked to where the jobs will be. This means reviewing places in London and the Home counties – not enough – and the North West – probably too many in some subjects and sectors. – look at trainees that cannot find a job because we trained too many of them and see whether with some minimal re-training they might be useful teachers. This applies especially to PE teachers this year – some might re-train as science teachers or primary PE specialists. Might some art teachers work in design part of D&T.

23. Possible Strategies? – Pay the fees of all graduate trainees from 2015 entry onwards – this will be especially helpful to career changers that have paid off previous fees and will need to repay the £9,000 as soon as they start teaching – Look to how those training to be teachers that have links to communities can be employed in those communities and more mobile students can be encouraged to move to where they are needed. – Make sure teacher preparation places are more closely linked to where the jobs will be. This means reviewing places in London and the Home counties – not enough – and the North West – probably too many in some subjects and sectors. – look at trainees that cannot find a job because we trained too many of them and see whether with some minimal re-training they might be useful teachers. This applies especially to PE teachers this year – some might re-train as science teachers or primary PE specialists. Might some art teachers work in design part of D&T. – ramp up the 2015 autumn advertising campaign spend, including an early TV and social media advertising spend that at least matches that of the MoD.

24. Possible Strategies? – Pay the fees of all graduate trainees from 2015 entry onwards – this will be especially helpful to career changers that have paid off previous fees and will need to repay the £9,000 as soon as they start teaching – Look to how those training to be teachers that have links to communities can be employed in those communities and more mobile students can be encouraged to move to where they are needed. – Make sure teacher preparation places are more closely linked to where the jobs will be. This means reviewing places in London and the Home counties – not enough – and the North West – probably too many in some subjects and sectors. – look at trainees that cannot find a job because we trained too many of them and see whether with some minimal re-training they might be useful teachers. This applies especially to PE teachers this year – some might re-train as science teachers or primary PE specialists. Might some art teachers work in design part of D&T. – ramp up the 2015 autumn advertising campaign spend, including an early TV and social media advertising spend that at least matches that of the MoD. – split the teacher preparation part of the National College away from the Leadership and professional development elements. – look at the NQT year support now that local authorities don’t have the cash to help. This may be vital in keeping primary teachers in the profession, especially if anything goes wrong at the school where they are working.

26. Thank you and Questions?