2. FROM NATURAL HAZARDS TO DISASTERS AND DISASTER RESILIENCE A 3-Part Story That Can Take 40 Years, or More, to Live Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

3. PLANET EARTH IS IMPACTED EVERY YEAR BY DISASTERS CAUSED BY--- EARTHQUAKES TSUNAMIS SEVERE WINDSTORMS VOLCANOES FLOODS WILDFIRES

4. DISASTERS ARE THE CITY’S DEFAULT OPTION (PART II) NATURAL HAZARDS ARE NOT AN OPTION (PART I) AND TO BECOME DISASTER RESILIENT, OR NOT; THAT IS THE QUESTION (PART III)

5. HAZARDSHAZARDS HAZARDS: NOT AN OPTION FOR CITIES EXPOSURE AND VULNERABILITY DISASTERDISASTER DISASTER RESILIENCE CITYCITY

6. COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS NATURAL HAZARDS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK DISASTER RISK REDUCTION PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY POLICY OPTIONS

7. NOTABLE DISASTERS IN 2011 FLOODS IN AUSTRALIA EARTHQUAKE/TSUNAMI IN JAPAN WILDFIRES IN ARIZONA AND TEXAS HURRICANE IRENE AND TROPIAL STORM LEE FLOODS : AUSTRALIA, THAILANC SUPER TORNADO OUTBREAK CATALYSTS FOR CHANGE NEW KNOWLEDGE FOR COMMUNITY DISASTER RISK REDUCTION VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

8. A DISASTER OCCURS WHEN THE CITY IS … UN—PREPARED UN—PROTECTED UN—ABLE TO RESPOND EFFECTIVELY UN (NON)--RESILIENT

9. LOSS OF FUNCTION DISASTERS: THE DEFAULT OPTION FOR CITIES ECONOMIC LOSES ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS DEATHS AND INJURIES CITYCITY

10. THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF AN EARTHQUAKE

11. SUBSIDENCE EARTHQUAKE TSUNAMI GROUND SHAKING FAULT RUPTURE FOUNDATION FAILURE SOIL AMPLIFICATION LIQUEFACTION LANDSLIDESAFTERSHOCKSSEICHE DAMAGE/LOSS DAMAGE/ LOSS DAMAGE/LOSS

12. INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING EARTHQUAKES SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SOIL FAILURE AND SURFACE FAULTING ) IRREGULARITIES IN MASS, STRENGTH, AND STIFFNESS FLOODING FROM TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP AND SEICHE POOR DETAILING OF STRUCTURALSYSTEM FAILURE OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER CASE HISTORIES

13. HAITI: DEATH TOLL REACHED AN ESTIMATED 220,OOO+; FEB 2010

14. THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A TSUNAMI

15. TSUNAMI HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) HIGH-VELOCITY, LONG-PERIOD WATER WAVES WAVE RUNUP FLOODING WAVE RETREAT SHORELINE EROSION

16. HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES TSUNAMIS INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS FLOODING NO WARNING, OR INADEQUATE WARNING PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER CASE HISTORIES

17. THE DISASTER IN JAPAN THAT BEGAN ON MARCH 11, 2011 HAPPENED WITHIN MINUTES It only took seconds for the P- and S-waves and minutes for the tsunami waves to reach Sendai and other parts of Japan’s coast..

18. THE M9.0 EARTHQUAKE…. Japan was well prepared to cope with the earthquake, and ---

19. THE M9.0 EARTHQUAKE…. Japan’s buildings and infrastructure were protected through codes and standards, but ….

20. THE TSUNAMI WAS DEVASTATING The t sunami that followed the M9.0 earthquake caused enormous damage in Japan within minutes.

21. THE 7-10 M TSUNAM WAVES The tsunami was devastating, inun- dating towns, im- mobilizing airports and roads, destroy- ing buildings, and treating everything (e.g., people, cars) in its path as debris.

22. THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A SEVERE WINDSTORM

23. COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION SEVERE WINDSTORMS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK SEVERE WINDSTORM RISK REDUCTION PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY EDUCATIONAL SURGES POLICY OPTIONS Wind profile Storm Hazards: -Wind pressure -Surge -Rain -Flood -Waves -Salt water -Missiles -TornadoesOceanOcean Gradient Wind

24. HAZARDS OF A SEVERE WINDSTORM (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) WIND FIELD (COUNTER CLOCKWISE OR CLOCKWISE DIRECTION; CAT 1 (55 mph) TO CAT 5 (155 mph or greater) STORM SURGE HEAVY PRECIPITATION LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS) COSTAL EROSION TORNADOES (SOMETIMES)

25. WIND AND WATER PENETRATE BUILDING ENVELOPE SEVERE WINDSTORMS SEVERE WINDSTORMS UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS PENETRATES WINDOWS STORM SURGE AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN POOR WORKMANSHIP FAILURE OF NON- STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER CASE HISTORIES

26. 164 TORNADOS IN 24 HOURS IMPACT 7 SOUTHEASTERN STATES EF4 and EF5 TORNADOES OVERALL DEATH TOLL REACHES 350 WEDNESDAY, APRIL 27- THURSDAY, APRIL 28, 2011

27. TUSCALOOSA, AL: A MILE-WIDE STORM; APRIL 27, 2011

28. TUSCALOOSA, AL: 15 TH STREET DAMAGE; APRIL 27, 2011

29. THE DISASTER KEEPT ON BUILDING AFTER IRENE’S EXIT RECORD-TO-NEAR-RECORD FLOODING IN NEW ENGLAND AND CANADA HAPPENED AFTER IRENE PASSED THROUGH AUGUST 29 ---31, 2011

30. AUG 27: FORECAST AFTER 7:30 AM LANDFALL IN OUTER BANKS, NC

31. IRENE CAUSED A $20+ BILLION DISASTER

32. Irene smashed power poles, ripped transmission wires and flooded electrical stations over the weekend, blacked out more than 7.4 million homes and businesses from South Carolina to Maine, and killed 44 people in 13 states

33. VERMONT: FLOODING

34. THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A VOLCANIC ERUPTION

35. VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) VERTICAL PLUME ASH AND TEPHRA LATERAL BLAST PYROCLASTIC FLOWS LAhARS

36. PROXIMITY TO LATERAL BLAST VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC FLOWS IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS (TEPHRA) IN PATH OF VOLCANIC ASH (AVIATION) IN PATH OF LAVA AND PYROCLASTIC FLOWS IN PATH OF LAHARS IGNORING WARNING TO EVACUATE CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER CASE HISTORIES

37. MOUNT KARANGETANG ERUPTS IN INDONESIA ERUPTION OCCURS WITHIN HOURS OF JAPAN’S M9.0 QUAKE AND TSUNAMI DISASTER FRIDAY, MARCH 11, 2011

38. MOUNT KARANGETANG ERUPTS The 1,784 m (5,853 ft) volcano, which is one of Indonesia’s 129 active volcan- oes, is located on Siau.

39. THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A FLOOD

40. FLOOD HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS ) TOO MUCH WATER DISCHARGED WITHIN THE DRAINAGE SYSTEM TO BE ACCOMMODATED NORMALLY IN THE REGIONAL WATER CYCLE EROSION SCOUR MUDFLOWS

41. LOSS OF FUNCTION OF STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN FLOODS INUNDATION INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS STRUCTURAL/CONTENTS DAMAGE FROM WATER WATER BORNE DISEASES (HEALTH PROBLEMS) EROSION AND MUDFLOWS CONTAMINATION OF GROUND WATER CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND DISASTER CASE HISTORIES

42. ROCKHAMPTON, AUSTRSLIA BECAME AN ISLAND:JANUARY 3, 2011

43. BANGKOK: OVER 370 DEAD AND LOSSES IN EXCESS OF $6 BILLION FROM PROLONGED FLOODING NOVEMBER 2011

44. SANDBAGGING: CHAO PRAYA RIVER

45. DON MUANG AIRPORT: A SHELTER FOR EVACUEES

46. THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A WILDFIRE

47. WILDFIRE HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) FIRE HOT GASES AND SMOKE HOT SPOTS BURNED OUT SLOPES (with increased susceptibility to insect infestation, erosion, and landslides)

48. WILDFIRE HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) SUNDOWNER WINDS SANTA ANNA WINDS LOCAL CHANGES IN AIR QUALITY LOCAL CHANGES IN WEATHER

49. LIGHTNING STRIKES WILDFIRES MANMADE FIRES PROXIMITY OF URBAN AREA TO THE WILDLAND FIRE WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION (DAY/NIGHT) DRYNESS HIGH TEMPERATURES LOCAL FUEL SUPPLY CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND DISASTER DISASTER LABORATORIES

50. SMITHVILLE, TX FIRE

51. Since the beginning of the 2011 wildfire season, Texas has dealt with over 20,900 fires that have destroyed more than 1,000 homes and burned 3.6 million acres (1.46 million hectares).

52. DISASTERS MUST NOT BECOME THE OPTION OF CHOICE FOR CITIES (SEE PART II) TO BECOME DISASTER RESILIENT, OR NOT; THAT IS STILL THE QUESTION: (PART III)