1. Towards a new longitudinal data set for the analysis of migration and integration in Switzerland Ilka Steiner, Institute of Demographic and Life Course Studies (IDEMO) University of Geneva Ilka.Steiner@unige.ch International Workshop on Methodological Challenges for the Study of Return and Circular Migration TEMPER Project Madrid, 22-23 January 2015

2. Why a new longitudinal data set? Political/societal context: The controversial public and political debate The need for quality data The diversification of migration patterns Statistical feasibility: The introduction of the Personal Identification Number Legal context: A change of law allowing for record linkage Scientific framework: NCCR “On the move” (www.nccr.onthemove.ch)www.nccr.onthemove.ch

3. Content Why a new longitudinal data set Demographic Base Demographic data Conceptual framework Measuring return, repeat and circular migration Some limitations Extensions How temporary and recurrent are current migration patterns?

4. Demographic base Demographic data ProducerTarget populationBefore 2010After 2010 Migration Office (Statistical Office) Foreigners (Swiss or foreign-born) Central System of Migration (ZEMIS) Central Register of Foreign Nationals (ZAR) Automatic registration system of persons (AUPER) Statistical OfficeTotal resident population Nationals and non-nationals Swiss or foreign-born Decennial Census (RFP)Population and Households Statistics (STATPOP) Structural Survey (RS)

5. Demographic base Conceptual framework 1997-2013* *without refugees and asylum seekers ObservationsIDS Stocks73.1m15.1m Flows15.9m4.7m

6. Demographic base Measuring return, repeat and circular migration STATPOP stock data: → country of residence 1-5 years ago → validity of residence permit Data setMigration specific variables (flow data) ZEMIS <2010 type of flow: emigration immigration naturalization arrival date (date of event) residence permit nationality birth state motif of immigration/residence mother’s origin STATPOP >2010 country of departure country of destination

7. Demographic base Some limitations Discontinuity in the data in 2010 Target population (Swiss, border-commuters, etc.) Variables Registration process: Self-declaration: delays or omissions Absence of socio-economic variables for EU/EFTA-citizens (ZEMIS) Decentralization of registrations: gaps, duplicates and wrong corrections source movementDatepermitnationalitygender civil status birthday flows immigration06.11.2010short-termSpanishMM03.01.1979 emigration 06.11.2010short-termSpanishMM03.01.1979 immigration 06.11.2010short-termSpanishWM03.01.1979 stocks 31.12.2010short-termSpanishWM03.01.1979

8. Demographic base Extensions: temporal and data-related

9. Demographic base Extensions Temporal extensions: i.e. 2014, 2015, etc. Data extensions: Structural survey, >2010, sample, permanent resident population Swiss Labor Force Survey, >1998, sample, permanent resident population Structure of Earnings Survey, >2012, sample Student statistic, >2010 Unemployment statistics (SECO-based), >1998 Contributions and pensions (AI, AVS, etc.), >1998 Statistic of social benefits, >2003 Permanent resident population Swiss-citizens Foreign citizens detaining a permit that is valid for at least twelve months have resided legally in Switzerland for a cumulative length of at least twelve months

10. How temporary and recurrent are current migration patterns? Definitions Target population:Nationality: Germans Age: 18+ Sample restriction: immigration between 2002 and 2007 Duration of observation: 5 years from arrival → 208’289 individuals

11. How temporary and recurrent are current migration patterns? Types of flows Types of recurrent flows: → 23% of migrants immigrate more than once Maximum within 5 years International migration: 22 immigrations / 22 emigrations Change of canton: 13 departures / 13 arrivals Change of communes: 5 departures / 5 arrivals Longest absence=84 days / Longest presence=16 days Immigration ->8042438.61 Immigration -> Emigration8071638.75 Immigration -> Emigration -> Immigration152837.34 Immigration -> Emigration -> Immigration -> Emigration139936.72 Immigration>2 / Emigration>2, Immigration>Emigration97404.68 Immigration>2 / Emigration>2, Immigration=Emigration81333.90 Total208’289100%

12. Figure: Survival function for emigration, German residents, Switzerland How temporary and recurrent are current migration patterns? Duration of residence before emigration Source: Demographic base, Emigration of Germans during a five-year observation period that immigrated between 2002 and 2007

13. Figure: Survival function for emigration by age, German residents, Switzerland How temporary and recurrent are current migration patterns? Duration of residence before emigration 18-24 50-64 30-39 65+ 25-29 40-49 Source: Demographic base, Emigration of Germans during a five-year observation period that immigrated between 2002 and 2007

14. How temporary recurrent are current migration patterns? Conclusions 39% of the cohort stayed in Switzerland during at least five years → need to be taken into account Mobility of young people → Importance of considering different migrant categories More than half of all emigrations takes place within the first year of residence → Importance of the permit (governmental control?)

15. Thank you Ilka Steiner Institute of Demographic and Life Course Studies, University of Geneva Ilka.Steiner@unige.ch

16. The origin of the data base Legal aspects Federal Statistics Act (FSA) 2013: The Federal Department of Home Affairs (FDHA) launched a partial revision of the Federal Statistics Act (FSA) regarding data linkages (art 14a). January 15 th 2014: The new decree allows for the linkage of different data sources by the SFSO staff as well as for the involvement of external researchers. Art. 14.a.I:In order to fulfil its statistical duties, the Federal Office may link data, provided the data is rendered anonymous. In the event that data links involve data considered especially sensitive or that data links generate personal profiles, the linked data must be deleted on completion of the statistical analysis. The Federal Council regulates the details.

17. Source: SFSO – PETRA 1991-2010 German immigration and emigration flows, resident population, 1991-2010 German immigration and emigration flows, permanent resident population, 1991-2010 Demographic base Permanent vs. resident population