1. University Entrance Rates of Ontario Residents: Regional and Gender Analysis CUPA Conference (University of Guelph) June 24, 2009 Ian Calvert, Carleton University Dave Smith, York University

2. Outline Background and objective Methodology Ontario picture 1989 to 2007 Regional and gender analysis 1989 to 2007 Population projections to 2021 New-entrant scenarios to 2021 Discussion References

3. Background and Objective CESPA* has developed a “flow-through” model as a tool to estimate future undergraduate enrolment at Ontario universities, and associated grant-funding implications This model relies on estimates of new, full-time entrants into first year; upper-year enrolments are then projected, as well as Full-Time Equivalents (FTEs) and Basic Income Units (BIUs) Objective of this analysis: to estimate new, first-year, full- time entrants by: –Looking at regional population projections, and –Rates at which young adults from those regions enroll * CUPA Committee on Enrolment Statistics, Projections, and Analysis

4. Methodology Ontario population data and projections: –Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance –Projections based on 2001 census* Ontario enrolment data: –Source: Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities –First-year, first-time (at institution), full-time enrolment –Domestic and International students –Direct-entry programs only Focus on entrants aged 18 to 20 (direct-entry programs) “Entrance rate” = (new, FT, 1 st -year) / (18-20 population) * New projections, based on 2006 census, are anticipated this fall.

10. Regional Groupings Southwest: –BRUCE –ELGIN –ESSEX –GREY –HURON –KENT –LAMBTON –MIDDLESEX –OXFORD –PERTH Central: –BRANT –DUFFERIN –HALDIMAND-NORFOLK –HALIBURTON –HAMILTON –MUSKOKA –NIAGARA –NORTHUMBERLAND –PETERBOROUGH & VICTORIA –SIMCOE –WATERLOO –WELLINGTON

11. Regional Groupings Toronto GTA excluding Toronto: –DURHAM –HALTON –PEEL –YORK East: –FRONTENAC –HASTINGS –LANARK –LEEDS & GRENVILLE –LENNOX & ADDINGTON –OTTAWA –PRESCOTT & RUSSELL –PRINCE EDWARD –RENFREW –STORMONT, DUNDAS & GLENGARRY

12. Regional Groupings North: –ALGOMA –COCHRANE –GREATER SUDBURY –KENORA –MANITOULIN –NIPISSING –PARRY SOUND –RAINY RIVER –SUDBURY –THUNDER BAY –TIMISKAMING

16. Ontario Regional Origin of First-year, Full-time Students Aged 18-20 Source: MTCU; first-time students (at institution) only CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31 1989 2007

23. Enrolment Scenarios Scenario 1: constant (i.e., entrance rates stay at 2007 levels) Scenario 2: rates continue trend of past three years Scenario 3: rates continue trend of past five years* Scenario 4: rates continue trend of past ten years* Scenario 5: rates continue trend of all years (since 1989)* For each scenario, two variations: –Provincial entrance rate –Region/gender entrance rates * Rates for years 2002 to 2004 have been excluded because of the double cohort

29. Discussion Points What if we close the gender gap? –Constant 2007 female entrance rates applied to males, by region  +16%* enrolment in 2021 What if we close the regional gap? –Constant 2007 male/female GTA entrance rates applied to all regions  +20% enrolment in 2021 What if we close the gender and regional gaps? –Constant 2007 GTA female entrance rates  +35% enrolment in 2021 What other scenarios should we consider? * relative to Fall 2007 enrolment

30. … a Final Comment Need to differentiate where students come from, and where students enroll All Ontario institutions serve students from the GTA OCAD, Ryerson, Toronto, York and UOIT account for 52% of entrants from the GTA

33. References More information on Ontario demographics is available at: http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/english/economy/demographics/ http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/english/economy/demographics/ Statistics Canada enrolment projections are available at: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/81-595-m/81-595-m2007058-eng.htm http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/81-595-m/81-595-m2007058-eng.htm The Council of Ontario Universities has a wide variety of publications available at: http://www.cou.on.ca/_bin/publications/onlinePublications.cfm The Association of Universities and Colleges analysis of trends is available at: http://www.aucc.ca/policy/research/index_e.html http://www.aucc.ca/policy/research/index_e.html