1. The Contribution of Agriculture and Rural Development to the Process of Economic Reform in Syria, 1-2 July 2008 1 Sustainability of the exploitation of the water resources of Syria and its implications for the future development of the irrigated agriculture Juan Antonio Sagardoy[1] [1] and Consuelo Varela-Ortega[2 ] [2 ][2 ] [1][1] FAO International Irrigation Management Consultant, Project Manager of the EC funded Research Project GEWAMED. [1] [2][2] Professor, Department of Agrarian Economy, Polytechnic University of Madrid (UPM) [2] GCP/SYR/006/ITA

2. 2 Summary of presentation 1. Evolution and present state of the irrigated areas of Syria 2. Summary of scenarios developed in 2000 3. Up-datig of the water balances and revised future scenario for 2015 4. Conclusions and recommendations

3. 3 Evolution of the irrigated areas in Syria

4. 4 Drivers and constraints of Irrigation development The increase in area has been driven by the favourable prices for wheat, cotton and sugar beet and the relatively low cost of irrigation. The increase in area has been driven by the favourable prices for wheat, cotton and sugar beet and the relatively low cost of irrigation. The objectives of self sufficiency for wheat and cotton has been largely surpassed since the ratio of consumption/production has increased from 0,51 in 1989 to 1,41 in 1997 for wheat and from 1,56 to 1,76 for cotton during the same period (WB). The objectives of self sufficiency for wheat and cotton has been largely surpassed since the ratio of consumption/production has increased from 0,51 in 1989 to 1,41 in 1997 for wheat and from 1,56 to 1,76 for cotton during the same period (WB). The main area of the expansion of irrigation in Syria has been largely from groundwater resources to the point that the area has nearly triplicate from that existing in 1985. The main area of the expansion of irrigation in Syria has been largely from groundwater resources to the point that the area has nearly triplicate from that existing in 1985. This has resulted in overexploitation of most of the aquifers of the country and the decline of the water table This has resulted in overexploitation of most of the aquifers of the country and the decline of the water table Important modernization plans have been promoted by the Government Important modernization plans have been promoted by the Government

5. 5 Available water resources The water resources of Syria are very limited compared to the needs of the country. The water resources of Syria are very limited compared to the needs of the country. Estimations of the available resources vary considerably depending of the sources of information. Estimations of the available resources vary considerably depending of the sources of information. Obtaining realistic data of the natural flows of the Euphrates River is quite difficult as releases from the Turkish site are not released. Obtaining realistic data of the natural flows of the Euphrates River is quite difficult as releases from the Turkish site are not released. In this study it has been assumed a conservative approach : the share of Syria from the Euphrates River is 210 m 3 /s equivalent to 6818 Million m3 per year. In this study it has been assumed a conservative approach : the share of Syria from the Euphrates River is 210 m 3 /s equivalent to 6818 Million m3 per year.

6. 6 Available water resources, water uses and water balances (year 2000)

7. The Contribution of Agriculture and Rural Development to the Process of Economic Reform in Syria, 1-2 July 2008 7 PART 2 FUTURE WATER DEMAND AND RELATED SCENARIOS

8. 8 Scenario 1: Government policy ( year 2000): Combination of irrigation modernization (4 years) and irrigation expansion of 417 000 ha (15 years)

9. 9 Scenario 2: Modernization of all existing irrigation system (80 000 ha/year) with no expansion of irrigation

10. 10 Scenario 3. Long-term combined policy: Combination of irrigation modernization and irrigation expansion (15 years both processes)

11. 11 Scenario 4. Differentiated policy: Modernization in critical basins and limited irrigation expansion in selected basins. In Orantos and Al Khabour basins all the irrigated area will be modernized in 5 years and no expansion In the Euphrates basin 120000 ha will be developed In the Coastal basin 45000 ha will be developed

12. The Contribution of Agriculture and Rural Development to the Process of Economic Reform in Syria, 1-2 July 2008 12 PART 3: EVOLUTION OF IRRIGATION IN THE LAST 7 YEARS AND RELATED SCENARIO.

13. 13 The Irrigated Area According to Water Sources (Years 2007 and 2000) (in ha)

14. 14 The Irrigated Area According to Water Sources (Years 2007 and 2000) (in ha) The total increment of irrigated area in the period considered is of 125 000 ha, The total increment of irrigated area in the period considered is of 125 000 ha, Most of the increment has arisen from the groundwater areas: 93 000 (73%). Most of the increment has arisen from the groundwater areas: 93 000 (73%). A strong reduction of 45 000 ha in the irrigation areas developed by the Government. A strong reduction of 45 000 ha in the irrigation areas developed by the Government. Most of the increments have taken place in the Euphrates basin (97 657 ha) and Orontos +Al Badia (28 476 ha) which were basins with positive modest water balances. Most of the increments have taken place in the Euphrates basin (97 657 ha) and Orontos +Al Badia (28 476 ha) which were basins with positive modest water balances.

15. 15 The modernization Programme Most of the modernizaion areas concentrate in the Orontos and Euphrates basins It represents now 17.4 % of the irrigated area which is a high percentage compared to other Mediterranean countries

16. 16 Revision of future demand (Scenario 5) Hypothesis made: The development of new irrigation takes place from year 2000 to 2007 at the rate of 17000 ha/year. After that year only new irrigation is permitted in the Coastal areas at the rate of 3000 ha/year. The development of new irrigation takes place from year 2000 to 2007 at the rate of 17000 ha/year. After that year only new irrigation is permitted in the Coastal areas at the rate of 3000 ha/year. Modernization takes places in all the basins proportionally to existing area but not exceeding in total more than 15000 ha/year for the whole period of 15 years. Modernization takes places in all the basins proportionally to existing area but not exceeding in total more than 15000 ha/year for the whole period of 15 years.

17. 17 Revision of future demand (Scenario 5)

18. 18 PART 4: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 1. The development of new irrigation areas, even if combined with a modernization programme, has a strong negative effect in the national and some river basins water balances. 2. Increased efforts should be made to stop the development of new irrigation areas in the Euphrates and Al Khabour basins arising from the development of ground water resources. 3. The Government should search in cooperation with the users the establishment of auto regulation measures that may permit the reduction of the overexploitation of the aquifers. One of the possibilities is to use the “Water/crop quota system”. One of the possibilities is to use the “Water/crop quota system”. Increase the control of the water used by ground water users: aquacards possibility Increase the control of the water used by ground water users: aquacards possibility

19. 19 PART 4: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS The “aquacard” system could be applied to groundwater wells.

20. 20 PART 4: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 4. A differentiated water basin policy would offer the best opportunity to reduce the imbalances among basins as it was recommended earlier. 5. The development of new government irrigated areas in the Euphrates basin from surface water has been practically stopped and even reduced. This policy should be strengthened and continued. 6. The modernization of irrigation systems is an effective policy to reduce the irrigation water demand and therefore should be maintained and wherever possible further supported with greater incentives for farmers.

21. The Contribution of Agriculture and Rural Development to the Process of Economic Reform in Syria, 1-2 July 2008 21 Thank you for your kind attention !!!