1. The Demographic Transition Model

2. The Demographic Transition Model
A descriptive generalization that depicts most countries’ development from a pre-industrial society to a post-industrial society and beyond
Describes changing levels of fertility and mortality as well as general levels of population growth
Based on known facts rather than general assumption

3. The Demographic Transition Model
As we go through, consider these questions: What countries might be in each stage? Where are the core, periphery and semi-periphery countries?

4. Stage 1: High Stationary / Pre-Transition
High birth rate and high death rate
Two rates are nearly equal
Death rate fluctuating likely due to war and disease
Involves a low-income agricultural economy
Children are less of an expense and more of an asset
Population growth is very slow
Population resides in rural areas
Countries? Core, periphery or semi-periphery?

5. Stage 2: Expanding Stage / Early Transition
Birth rate remains high
Death rate begins to fall rapidly
Results in population explosion
Early industrialization paralleled with medical and health advances
Infant mortality declines, life expectancy increases
This stage characterizes nations in early development
Countries? Core, periphery or semi-periphery?

6. Stage 3: Late Expanding Stage / Late Transition
Principle feature is a declining birth rate which is the result of voluntary decisions to reduce family size and the availability of contraceptives
Increased standards of living
Rate of Natural Increase is falling
The cost of children is increasing
Medical advancements continuing to decrease death rate
Population still increasing relatively quickly
Countries? Core, periphery or semi-periphery?

7. Stage 4: Low Growth Stage / Post Transition
Birth rate remains slightly above the death rate
Rate of Natural Increase is low
Population growth is low and stable
Women entering workforce, couples postponing families while educational goals are sought
Population viewed as ‘greying’ or ‘aging’
Canada would fall into this stage of the DTM
Countries? Core, periphery or semi-periphery?

8. Stage 5: Deindustrialization / Declining
The population is declining
Characterizes countries with present and predicted negative population growth rates such as Russia and many European countries
Death rate begins to exceed the birth rate
Countries? Core, periphery or semi-periphery?

9. Relationship to Population Pyramids
By analyzing population pyramids, one can decipher fairly accurately the stage of the demographic transition model that that particular country is in and vice versa
In combination with each other and if the model holds true, a countries future growth and development can be predicted
Shortcoming of the Demographic Transition Model: does not provide a bold hypothesis about future growth or decline

10. Stage 1: Pre-Transition and Unstable

11. Stage 2: Expanding / Early Transition

12. Stage 3: Stable / Late Transition

13. Stage 4: Stationary / Post-Transition

14. Stage 5: Deindustrialization / Declining

15. Statistics (2007) Canada: BR 11; DR 7; IMR 5; LE 80; DT 84.3
United States: BR 14; DR 8; IMR 7; LE 78; DT 79.2
China: BR 12; DR 7; IMR 27; LE 72; DT
India: BR 24; DR 8; IMR 58; LE 64; DT 44.35
Indonesia: BR 21; DR 7; IMR 34; LE 69; DT 59.57
Brazil: BR 21; DR 6; IMR 27; LE 72; DT 57
Mexico: BR 21; DR 5; IMR 21; LE 75; DT 61.29
United Arab Emirates: BR 17; DR 2; IMR 9; LE 79; DT 18.26
Australia: BR 13; DR 6; IMR 5; LE 81; DT 57.33
Afghanistan: BR 47; DR 21; IMR 166; LE 42; DT 26.65