1. Economic Growth as the Limiting Factor for Wildlife Conservation Including Considerations of Technological Progress

2. Compliments of Brian Czech This presentation is based on: Czech, B. 2000. Shoveling Fuel For A Runaway Train: Errant Economists, Shameful Spenders, And A Plan To Stop Them All. University of California Press, Berkeley. Czech, B. 2000. Economic growth as the limiting factor for wildlife conservation. Wildlife Society Bulletin 28(1):4-14. Czech, B., P. R. Krausman, and P. K. Devers. 2000. Economic associations among causes of species endangerment in the United States. BioScience 50(7):593-601. Czech, B., and P. R. Krausman. 2001. The Endangered Species Act: History, Conservation Biology, and Public Policy. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MD. Based largely on: Czech, B. 2000. Shoveling Fuel For A Runaway Train: Errant Economists, Shameful Spenders, And A Plan To Stop Them All. University of California Press, Berkeley. Czech, B., and P. R. Krausman. 2001. The Endangered Species Act: History, Conservation Biology, and Public Policy. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MD. Czech, B. 2000. Economic growth as the limiting factor for wildlife conservation. Wildlife Society Bulletin 28(1):4-14. Czech, B., P. R. Krausman, and P. K. Devers. 2000. Economic associations among causes of species endangerment in the United States. BioScience 50(7):593-601. Czech, B. Economic growth, technological progress, and biodiversity conservation. Under Review.

3. Economic Growth an increase in the production and consumption of goods and services typically expressed in terms of GDP facilitated by increasing: –population –per capita consumption

4. The Theoretical Framework

5. Time GNP K Natural capital allocated to human economy Natural capital allocated to wildlife Czech, B. 2000. Economic growth as the limiting factor for wildlife conservation. Wildlife Society Bulletin 28(1):4-14.

6. PDF files for these articles available at The Wildlife Society website: www.wildlife.org. (Follow links to Wildlife Society Bulletin.) www.wildlife.org

7. Some Empirical Evidence: Causes of Species Endangerment as a “Who’s Who” of the American Economy

8. Endangerment Causes Urbanization Agriculture Water diversions (e.g., reservoirs) Recreation, tourism development Pollution Domestic livestock, ranching 247 205 160 148 143 136 Czech et al. 2000. Bioscience 50(7):593-601.

9. Causes (cont.) Mineral, gas, oil extraction Non-native species Harvest Modified fire regimes Road construction/maintenance Industrial development 134 115 101 83 81 Czech et al. 2000. Bioscience 50(7):593-601.

10. Making sense of the Who’s Who with Trophic Theory

15. Basic Population Dynamics

16. K Carrying Capacity Scenarios Individuals Time r-selection K-selection

17. K and r-selected Species

18. K Economic Carrying Capacity GNP Time r-selection K-selection

19. K and r-selected Economies

20. American GNP, 1929-1997 K or r-selected?

21. But, for the sake of wildlife conservation, it’s not enough to hope we’re a K-selected economy.

22. K Wildlife Conservation and Steady State Economy GNP Time...maintain steady state economy sufficiently below K. To conserve wildlife...

23. But what about Technological Progress?

24. Technological Progress Vernacular: invention, innovation Technical: increasing productive efficiency resulting from invention and innovation

25. KTKT GNP Natural capital allocated to human economy Natural capital allocated to non-human economy X natural capital allocable Time KUKU Natural Capital Allocation Revisited

26. X/2 conserved K1K1 K2K2 GNP Time X natural capital remains allocable KUKU Economic growth with technology level 2 Economic growth with technology level 1 The Big Hope

27. The Great Debate: Is There a Limit? “Yes” Physiocrats Classical economists Ecological economists Ecologists “No” Neoclassical economists Corporations Politicians

28. Why would there not be a limit? Substitutability of resources Increasing productive efficiency Increasing human capital

29. White Pine, “Big Wheel”

30. Substituting for white pine, employing more efficient technology.

31. Sitka Spruce, Timbco 435 “Feller Buncher”

32. Why would there be a limit? Carrying capacity Thermodynamics Trophic levels

33. Carrying Capacity Consumers Products Byproducts

34. Thermodynamics Fixed amount of matter Entropy Fixed amount of energy

35. Another look at trophic levels, this time in light of thermodynamics.

38. Clear to All Without technological progress, GNP limited GNP growth faster than technological progress = trouble

39. Unclear to Many Technological progress: raising the bar or accelerating the approach? Does technological progress occur without increased consumption?

40. Consider the Sources Research and development Corporate profit Economies of scale

41. KTKT GNP Natural capital allocated to human economy Natural capital allocated to non-human economy X natural capital allocable Time KUKU One More Look at Allocation

42. X/2 conserved K1K1 K2K2 GNP Time X natural capital remains allocable KUKU Economic growth with technology level 2 Economic growth with technology level 1 Remember the Big Hope?

43. K1K1 K2K2 GNP Time X/2 natural capital allocable KUKU X/2 converted Economic growth with technology level 2 Economic growth with technology level 1 The Apparent Reality

44. Red Herring Alert! Red Herring Alert! Red Herring Alert!

45. The “Information” Economy But just ask 2 questions: What is the information used for? How does one come to afford the information?

46. To say that an economy may grow perpetually on a finite land mass is to say that a stable economy may occupy a perpetually diminishing land mass! Fallacy Buster

47. = $ $ $ $

48. Real Questions What is the limit? How do we know when we’re approaching the limit? What do we do to prevent breaching the limit?

49. And yet we hear: “Some people just don’t get it. There is no conflict between economic growth and environmental protection!” Why do they persist?

52. (As described by Brian Czech in Shoveling Fuel for a Runaway Train: Errant Economists, Shameful Spenders, and a Plan to Stop Them All. Published by University of California Press, 2000)