1. © The Treasury 2009 Job Summit John Whitehead, Secretary to the Treasury

2. © The Treasury Objectives To get out of recession as quickly as possible To limit the impact on people For New Zealand to be better off long-term and well placed to take advantage of world recovery 2

3. © The Treasury Growth in GDP per capita 2001-2006 Productivity growth 3 0 1 2 3 4 Czech Republic Poland Iceland Ireland Finland United Kingdom United States Japan OECD France Belgium Austria Australia Canada Switzerland New Zealand Portugal Mexico Italy

4. © The Treasury Regulation 4 2007 0123 United Kingdom United States Canada New Zealand Australia Denmark Ireland Netherlands Iceland Norway Sweden Germany Finland Belgium Japan Austria Portugal Hungary Korea Mexico Switzerland 00.511.52 United States United Kingdom Canada Iceland Netherlands Denmark Spain Japan Norway Finland Australia New Zealand Switzerland Sweden Germany Italy Austria Hungary Belgium France Korea 1998 4th 12th

5. © The Treasury No Qualification 20% School Qualification 23% Post School Qualification 57% Employed Workforce - Education 5 Unemployed No Qualification 23% School Qualification 29% Post School Qualification 38%

6. © The Treasury Workforce - Ethnicity 6 Unemployed Pakeha 55% Maori 19% Other 18% Pacific 8% Pakeha 75% Maori 10% Employed Pacific 4% Other 11%

7. © The Treasury Operating Balance 7 -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 93/9495/9697/9899/0001/0203/0405/0607/0809/1011/1213/1415/1617/1819/2021/22 % GDP Fiscal Year Historical Years Forecast Years Projected Years OBEGAL to GDP

8. © The Treasury Debt 8 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 93/9495/9697/9899/0001/0203/0405/0607/0809/1011/1213/1415/1617/1819/2021/22 Fiscal Year % GDP Historical Years Forecast Years Projected Years GSID to GDP

9. © The Treasury Demographics 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 188019001920194019601980200020202040206020802100 Older (65+) Projection Ratio to population aged 15-64 Source: Statistics New Zealand 2009 Ratio of those aged 65+ to 15-64

10. © The Treasury Spending changes – 2008 to 2050 10 GDP % 2008 2050 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 NZ SuperHealth Finance costs Source: New Zealand long-term fiscal model

11. © The Treasury The way forward 11 Do prepare for the future – skills and innovation Do protect the vulnerable – not the status quo Don’t pass on a burden of debt

12. © The Treasury 2009 Job Summit John Whitehead, Secretary to the Treasury