1. www.3ieimpact.org Philip Davies Identifying the Problem Philip Davies International Initiative for Impact Evaluation [3ie] BCURE Evidence-Informed Decision-Making Capacity Building Workshop 1st and 2nd June 2015 Pretoria, South Africa

2. www.3ieimpact.org Philip Davies What is the Problem? Analysis Required i.Evidence about the nature, size and dynamics of the problem ii.The probability that it will occur and its likely frequency iii.Who it will impact on? iv.Who is best placed to manage / resolve the problem?

3. www.3ieimpact.org Philip Davies Is Government Intervention Appropriate Market Failure – market cannot deliver efficiently Distributional Effects – by age, gender, ethnicity etc Asymmetric Information – insufficient information to make an informed choice Public Good – benefits to all, including non-payers Externalities – impact on 3 rd parties Market Power – monopoly or oligopoly

4. www.3ieimpact.org Philip Davies Identifying the Problem - Data Sources Census + near 100% coverage of entire population + results reliable at small area level - only every ten years - relatively limited indicator list - extremely expensive Surveys + clear research focus + potential for extensive indicator list - sampling error - results often not reliable at small area level - very expensive Administrative Data + near 100% coverage of population of interest + constantly updated + results reliable at small area level + already collected for operational purpose - some indicators are proxies - dependent upon support of data providers - data protection issues Source: Michael Noble, Saspri Qualitative Data In-depth interviews Group interviews (including focus groups) Consultative methods Observation / Participant Observ Ethnography Documentary analysis Oral histories Case studies

5. www.3ieimpact.org Philip Davies Identifying the Problem Data Sources Statistics South Africa Science Councils - some promoting open access Universities Think tanks DPME eg evaluations and evaluation repository Departments on administrative data, eg Treasury Budget data most open access Private providers eg: –Local government data –Employment data –Data aggregators like DataFirst International sources eg databases, Cochrane/Campbell/3ie libraries Source Harsha Dayal, DPME

6. www.3ieimpact.org Philip Davies

7. www.3ieimpact.org Philip Davies Distribution of All Crime in South Africa by Province Source: www.crimestats.com

8. www.3ieimpact.org Philip Davies Distribution of Homicides in South Africa by Province Source: www.crimestats.com

9. www.3ieimpact.org Philip Davies Distribution of Sexual Crimes in South Africa by Province

10. www.3ieimpact.org Philip Davies Distribution of Common Robbery in South Africa by Province Source: www.crimestats.com

11. www.3ieimpact.org Philip Davies Distribution of Residential Burglary in South Africa by Province Source: www.crimestats.com

12. www.3ieimpact.org Philip Davies Distribution of Motor Vehicle Theft in South Africa by Province Source: www.crimestats.com

13. www.3ieimpact.org Philip Davies Violence in South Africa – Causal Factors Source, Davies et al, 2011

14. www.3ieimpact.org Philip Davies Group Exercise Take a policy issue and discuss how you might identify the nature, size and dynamics of the problem using different types of evidence and different sources of data. NB: Do not be confined to what has been presented in this presentation

15. www.3ieimpact.org Philip Davies Thank you Philip Davies Email: pdavies@3ieimpact.orgpdavies@3ieimpact.org +44 (0)207 958 8350 Visit www.3ieimpact.org