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Strategic Tools & Forecasting. Profit Impact of Marketing Strategy (PIMS) Cross-sectional study of the strategic experience of profit organizations based.

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Presentation on theme: "Strategic Tools & Forecasting. Profit Impact of Marketing Strategy (PIMS) Cross-sectional study of the strategic experience of profit organizations based."— Presentation transcript:

1 Strategic Tools & Forecasting

2 Profit Impact of Marketing Strategy (PIMS) Cross-sectional study of the strategic experience of profit organizations based on the experience of more than 500 companies in nearly 3,800 businesses. Can use the information to develop a model to estimate a business’s ROI from the structural competitive/strategy factors associated with the business. Some of Buzzell and Gale’s strategy principles based on PIMS research: –Quality is the single most important factor affecting performance –Larger market share equals higher ROI –High investment intensity pulls down profitability –Forecasts of cash flow based solely on the growth-share matrix are often misleading

3 Trend-Impact Analysis A method for projecting future trends from information gathered on past behavior. 1.Use computer to extrapolate past history. 2.Have experts indicate future events that may have a bearing on the trend and use this information to modify the extrapolation. 3.Have experts review the modified extrapolation and adjust where necessary.

4 Cross-Impact Analysis Provides a future forecast, making due allowance for the effect of interacting forces on the shape of things to come.

5 Survey of Buyer Intentions Ask individual accounts about their purchasing plans for a future period and translate these responses into account forecasts. –Mail surveys –Telephone surveys –Personal interviews, etc.

6 Jury of Executive Opinion Experts in the firm provide forecasts. The forecasts are then averaged or discussed by the manages until a consensus forecast for each account is reached.

7 Delphi Technique Method of making forecasts based on expert opinion. 1.Identify recognized experts (e.g., company executives) in the field of interest. 2.Seek their cooperation and send them a summary paper o the topic being examined. 3.Conduct personal interviews with each expert based on a structured questionnaire.

8 Salesforce Composite Method Salespeople provide forecasts for their assigned accounts.

9 Moving Averages A forecast is developed by calculating the average company sales for previous years.

10 Decomposition Method Breakdown previous company sales data into four major components: trend, cycle, seasonal, and erratic events. These components are then reincorporated to produce the sales forecast.

11 A Basic Approach to Sales Forecasting Total number of people in target markets [a] a Annual number of purchases per person [b]x b Total potential market [c]= c Total potential market [c] c Percent of total market coverage [d]x d Total available market [e]= e Total available market [e] e Expected market share [f]x f Sales forecast (in units) [g]= g Sales forecast (in units) [g] g Price [h]x h Sales forecast (in dollars) [i]= i


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