1. Global trends, development paradigms and food security FAO Rome 17 December 2014 Lorenzo Giovanni Bellù Global Perspectives Studies -ESA Economic and Social Department

2. 2 of 15 Outline 1.Global trends 2.Trends in agricultural trade in CIS countries 3.Food and Nutrition Security in a country- wide framework 4.Development and development paradigms 5.Questions

3. 3 of 15 Population Source: United Nations Population Division (2009).

4. 4 of 15 GDP 1.Global GDP is projected to increase 2.5 times to 2050 2.Per capita GDP 1.8 times 3.Faster Growth is expected in less industrialized countries 4.This is an almost BAU scenario (Source WB Development Prospects Group)

5. 5 of 15 Source of growth of agricultural production

6. 6 of 15 Global production and trade 1.Increased production is expected from Yield changes 2.Selected regions are expected to be net importers (S.S. Africa, South Asia) 3.Others, net exporters (e.g. Latin America, Central Asia) 4.Faster Growth is expected in less industrialized countries 5.This is an almost BAU scenario (Source WB Development Prospects Group)

7. 7 of 15 CIS countries: Net export projections

8. 8 of 15 CIS countries: Net export projections

9. 9 of 15 CIS countries: Net export projections

10. 10 of 15 10 development paradigms Free market trickle-down- growth Pro-poor (inclusive) growth Low-wage industry-led development Low-wage labour export- led devt. Agriculture- based development Endogenous growth based development Rural / territorial development “Washington consensus” based devt. Strategic openness- based devt. Exhaustible resources export-led Agricultural commodities export-led Emigration - based development Immigration based development Foreign Direct Investment based devt. Foreign Aid- Based Inv based devt. Growth and poverty reduction Agriculture versus growth Technology changes and growth Agriculture, technology and poverty reduction External factors-based development Low-wage import substitution

11. 11 of 15 A “Development paradigm” is a specific (codified, recognizable) modality to achieve development comprising: A “vision” regarding a (desirable or likely) future state of a socio-economic system, often materialized through “storylines”; A set of objectives, to be achieved to concretize the vision; Selected assumptions regarding the way a socio-economic system “works” (who does/will do what, why, how, for how long, often comprising key cause-effect relationships; A set of policies (interventions, actions) aimed at achieving the desired objectives. Development paradigms defined

12. 12 of 15 How a socio-economic system works: elements and linkages National and international institutional set-up Households Current external balance (+/-) Indirect taxes Savings Savings- Investment. Factor- resource Markets Activities Value Added Internat. transfers Enterprises Domestic Transfers Exports Taxes Government Inputs Commodity-service markets Outputs Imports Rest of the World Final consumption Profits Investment (t) Investment (t+1) Investment (t+2)... Man-made capital natural resources Human resources Expatriated profits Remittances

13. 13 of 15 Impacts of different policy measures on the whole system Factor and resource policies Domestic Price policies Public Investment polices Technology and marketing policies Fiscal policies Poverty - food security policies Monetary policies Trade, FDI and exchange rate policies

14. 14 of 15 1) Visions and storylines. How do you see your country (or groups of countries) in 25 years? Describe in few words two plausible “stories” (one more optimistic, the other more pessimistic), keeping into account both domestic and external factors. 2) Current and future functioning of the socio-economic system. What are the main features of the socio-economic system of your country (or group of countries)? Describe what are the current and future “engines” of development. (Who is doing what and how to make these engines work? What is the role that external factors may play? Is the situation drastically going to change in the medium-long term? ) 3) Prospects for food security. Which prospects (challenges) do you see for Food and Nutrition Security in the short, medium and long run? Can you identify possible dos and donts to ensure FNS in the long run? Explain, possibly with reference to the features of the socio-economic system. Questions for the working groups

15. 15 of 15 Useful references Alexandratos, Nikos and Jelle Bruinsma (2012), “World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050: The 2012 Revision,” ESA Working Paper, No. 12-03, June, FAO, Rome. Bellù, Lorenzo Giovanni (2011). Development and Development Paradigms. A (reasoned) review of prevailing visions. FAO EASYPol series n. 102 www.fao.org/easypol